July 2, 2009
The Threat
America’s vulnerability to ballistic missile attack increases with the proliferation of ballistic missile technology throughout the globe. “The Threat” outlines the danger posed by particular countries.
»»
Missiles of the World
A detailed database of offensive ballistic missiles throughout the world.
»»
Cruise Missiles
A comprehensive database of the cruise missiles around the world.
»»
Scenarios
Ballistic missile attacks can come in many forms. One might prefer to think of war in the modern age as “unthinkable,” but it would be irresponsible to dismiss the harm enemies may wish us. With both textual descriptions and animations, “scenarios” shows what both attacks and interceptions would look like.
»»
Quote
"I often remind people that a ballistic missile attack using a weapon of mass destruction from a rogue state is every bit as much a threat to our borders now as a Warsaw Pact tank was two decades ago."
--- Madeleine K. Albright, Secretary of State, December 8, 1998
Search
Email News Digest
Missilethreat RSS Feed
News and Analysis
Kyl and Perle on the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent
U.S. Senator John Kyl and former Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Perle argue in the Wall Street Journal that a failure to modernize U.S. nuclear forces will lead to more worldwide nuclear proliferation and leave us less secure.
Citing the recent Perry-Schlesinger Commission report on the strategic posture of the U.S. (published in May), they warn that America's nuclear force is in desperate need of funding, upgrading, and maintenance if we are to avoid unilateral disarmament by unilateral obsolescence.
Among other things, they recommend a rejection of Russia's continuing effort to link mutual arms reductions to the abandonment of U.S. missile defenses.
» Strategic Posture Report 2009 - Full Text
» Final Report on America's Strategic Posture
Missile Tracking Satellites Delivered to Air Force
The first of two missile defense satellites has been delivered to the Air Force in Cape Canaveral; Northrop Grumman awaits shipping orders from MDA regarding the second. Both satellites are scheduled to be placed into orbit this year. They are meant to complement the ground-based components of the Space Tracking and Surveillance System at Schriever Air Force Base in Colorado.
The satellites will add a layer to the surveillance component of the U.S. BMD system by providing the Missile Defense Agency with its first space-based missile-tracking capabilities; currently the MDA is better at tracking the launch and terminal phases of ballistic missiles than it is at tracking mid-course flight.
The scheduled launch follows a May MDA launch of a separate classified STSS demonstration satellite. The two additional satellites slated for launch later this year were originally part of a program called the Flight Demonstration System, which was cancelled in 1999. The satellites were revived in 2002 when the MDA awarded $868 million to Northrop Grumman to prepare the satellites to go into orbit.
The Air Force has plans for a six-month testing period, during which time two ballistic missile targets will be launched and tracked. MDA's STSS program director, Air Force Col. Jay Morgan, has stated that the satellites will play a role in at least two other MDA tests. These planned tests should be regarded as provisional, as MDA's formal test schedule is not yet finalized.
Northrop Grumman's STSS program manager, Gabe Watson, said the following of the MDA's addition of the two satellites to its BMD system:
We can track missiles in every stage of flight, from launch to intercept, and do hit assessment as well. If the MDA wants to intercept missiles in the ascent phase, they will need additional data that [current missile warning satellites] don't provide.
» Northrop Grumman Announcement
» Global Security Newswire Reporting
» More stories on: Space-Based Systems
India Making Progress on Indigenous BMD
March 7 marked India's latest test of its anti-ballistic missile system. The test was one of three successful consecutive tests in recent years, and indicates a promising future for an indigenous BMD system. India's first test demonstrated the system's ability to intercept an incoming Prithvi-II missile at an altitude of 48 km with a two-stage Pradyumna interceptor; the second test was a successful intercept of a Prithvi-II at 15km by a single-stage interceptor; the third and most recent test demonstrated the capability of a new and more sophisticated Pradyumna to destroy its target at an altitude of 75 km.
This high success rate is especially impressive considering the much higher failure rates associated with India's trials of its short and medium-range ballistic missiles. The Indian government's Defense Research and Development Organization didn't publicly acknowledge the existence of a missile defense program until 2006, although at the time it was admitted that the program had been underway for quite some time. Even including these few years of secret development, India's missile defense program is progressing rapidly, with VK Saraswat—the current head of missile development at the DRDO—claiming that India's missile defense weapon testing could be complete by 2010. This speed seriously outstrips India's development of an offensive ballistic missile force.
In addition to speed, India's program shows signs of significant sophistication, especially compared to her possible regional adversaries. A case in point is China. While China's offensive ballistic missile program is more advanced than India's, it does not possess a comparable BMD capability. China's surface-to-air missiles could intercept ballistic missiles, but only up to an altitude of 30km. Furthermore, it is thought that China's BMD program falls far behind India's in the area of research and development, particularly in the area of software development and programming, key and indispensable components of any functional missile defense system.
As regional powers such as China and North Korea proceed with vigorous ballistic missile programs, it will be interesting to watch the progress of India's development of a potentially robust indigenous ballistic missile defense system.
» Missile details: Prithvi-2
Gates Deploys THAAD and X-Band Radar to Hawaii
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has sent the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to Hawaii to guard against the possibility of a North Korean missile launch. Japan's Yomiuri newspaper, citing a Japanese Defense Ministry report, claims that North Korea may be planning to launch Taepodong 2 towards Hawaii over the weekend of July 4th.
Secretary Gates has also deployed the sea-based X-band radar system to the region in order to monitor any launch activity. "We are in a good position, should it become necessary, to protect Americans and American territory," he said.
» AP Reports on Japanese Suspicion of NK Missile Launch Towards Hawaii
» Missile details: Taep'o-dong 2
» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Successful Live Target Airborne Laser Test
The Missile Defense Agency reports that the Airborne Tactical Laser aircraft, a project of Boeing and the Air Force, successfully tracked and engaged a missile in its boost phase. Two tests were conducted over the Pacific Ocean on June 6 and 13. The test target was a missile launched from the ground on San Nicolas Island off the coast of central California.
A low-power laser was used as a simulated surrogate for the full-powered chemical laser. The tests are the first in a series, planned to culminate in a "lethal" demonstration of the system's effectiveness against a ballistic missile later in 2009.
» Boeing Reports Successful Ground-Target Test of High-Powered Laser
» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL)
Heritage Publishes Report on Iran
The Heritage Foundation's Iran Working Group has published a major report on the threat posed by a nuclear Iran. Iran's Nuclear Threat: The Day After, makes the argument that the U.S. must take a much more active role in confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The full pdf can be accessed here.
Russia Leveraging Arms Reduction to Kill BMD
Nikolai Makarov, chief of staff of the Russian army, has stated that any cuts to the Russian nuclear arsenal will depend on U.S. abandonment of plans to deploy missile interceptors in the Czech Republic and Poland.
"While the situation in the world is unclear, including concerning the missile defence system, we will not touch our nuclear potential," said Makarov. The missile shield—intended as a defense and deterrent against the possibility of an Iranian missile launched at American allies in Europe—is considered "an unnecessary complication in bilateral relations" by Moscow.
The statement comes amid negotiations between U.S. and Russia about a possible successor to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which is set to expire on December 5.
» More stories on: European Missile Defenses
Japan to Develop Satellite Early Warning System
Prime Minister Taro Aso has approved the development of a missile launch early warning system. Using satellites, Japan plans to increase the quantity and quality of its space surveillance of North Korea.
This follows Japan's launch of four surveillance satellites in 1998 after North Korea's launch of a long-range missile over Japan.
Amid growing concerns about North Korean belligerence and missile technology, Japan eased its long-standing policy of pacifism last year in order to permit the use of space for military defense.
» More stories on: Japan
North Korean Nuclear Test
On Monday, May 26, North Korea conducted an underground test of a nuclear bomb.
Russia estimates the blast to be in the 10 to 20 kiloton range—a significant advance over North Korea's 2006 nuclear test. The test took place approximately 50 miles west of Kilju, in northeast North Korea.
The South Korean defense ministry is reporting that North Korea also fired two short-range missiles the same day, and three more on Tuesday.
Despite North Korea's state news agency's references to a "nuclear deterrent for self-defence," the test—along with the missile launches on Monday and Tuesday—confirms the compelling case for a multi-layered missile defense system in the United States, whose west coast is within range of North Korean ballistic missiles.
The miniaturization technology required to affix a nuclear weapon to a ballistic missile is significantly more sophisticated than the technology required merely to detonate a nuclear bomb. North Korea may thus still be some time away from the marriage of its nuclear weapons program to its ballistic missile program.
But this most recent nuclear test, coupled with North Korea's attempted satellite launch in early April, indicate Pyongyang's determination to proceed with both the elements required for the successful production and deployment of nuclear ICBMs.
The lesson of the last 15 years is that diplomacy has failed. North Korea is happy to sign agreements to dismantle their nuclear weapons programs or refrain from testing missiles and then violate those agreements at will.
The United States is left with two options. The first option is the execution of an overwhelming and preemptive military attack to neutralize North Korea's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs. This solution is drastic, and it is one the United States will not undertake. The second option is the deployment of a multi-layered missile defense system at home, so as to render a nuclear-tipped North Korean ICBM impotent.
In light of the alternative and the persistent failure of the carrots and sticks of diplomacy, this second option appears self-evidently compelling. And yet President Obama's newest defense budget, although it contains modest increases in the development and deployment of theater-based missile defense to shield American troops and allies, also contains drastic cuts to our ground-based missile defenses in Alaska and California, and eliminates several more capable systems designed to engage missiles in their boost phase-precisely the defenses that we will need to confront future belligerency by North Korea.
» North Korea Conducts First Nuclear Test
» North Korea Claims Nuclear Weapons
Iran Tests Medium Range Missile
Iran conducted a missile test today in Semnan province, 125 miles east of Tehran. The state-run Iranian news service reports that the missile is a solid-fueled Sajjil-2; if true, this would be Iran's second medium-range missile test in the last six months. According to Iran's defense minister, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, this new and improved Sajjil is said to have more sophisticated navigation equipment and improved sensors.
Defense Secretary Gates has confirmed that the launch took place, but cannot confirm whether the missile hit its target; no further details are being released at this point.
The launch is thought to be a play in both international and domestic politics. Israel has expressed the opinion that the launch is a response to Prime Minister Netanyahu's recent visit to the White House; President Ahmadinejad's announcement of the launch while on the campaign trail suggests that he might be trying to show some strength ahead of Iranian presidential elections on June 12.
For more, please visit our News Archive…
Overview
An explanation of what ballistic missiles are, how to defend against them, and the fundamental issues which drive the debate over whether or not to defend America.
»»
IWG Report 2009
Independent Working Group Report: Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century. »»
Heritage's 33 Minutes
Watch the Heritage Foundation's new film on the threat posed by long-range ballistic missiles, 33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age. »»
Missile Defense Systems
Ballistic missiles may be destroyed during their flight using systems based on land, sea, air, or space. Each system has particular virtues and vices: a robust and layered defense is necessary to provide for the strategic defense of the United States. This section contains information on past and present missile defenses of the United States, Russia, and other countries, including the land-based systems being deployed at Fort Greely, Alaska.
»»
Reports and Analyses
Numerous government and academic assessments have been conducted on missile defense, the threat posed by proliferating ballistic missiles, and related subjects. This section contains the best reports and analyses from both advocates and opponents of missile defense.
»»
Treaties, Laws, and Resolutions
This section contains resources for legal aspects of ballistic missile defense. Until President Bush withdrew the United States on June 2002, the ABM Treaty was the primary obstacle to deploying missile defenses for some thirty years. Information on the treaty’s significance, history, and demise is contained here, along with all other treaties related to missile defense, laws passed by the United States Congress, and resolutions by state legislatures.
»»
