James Carafano on EMP
July 27, 2009 :: Washington Examiner :: Writings
James Carafano, Senior Research Fellow for National Security at Heritage, has a piece today in the Washington Examiner making the common-sense case for clear and strategic thinking about the possibly catastrophic consequences of an EMP attack on America. (Article, Link)
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Final Report on America's Strategic Posture
May 13, 2009 :: Analysis
The Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States has released its final report to Congress. It offers some encouraging news and recommendations about the continued development and viability of missile defense in theater, but also leaves much to be desired in its discussion of missile defense deployments, the possibility of an EMP attack, and the desirability of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The "on the one hand, on the other hand" style of the report seems to reflect a division of opinion over the proper approaches to strategic policy.
The chapter on missile defense opens by noting that "Missile defenses are an integral part of the strategic posture of the United States after the Cold War." Iran and North Korea are identified as the two "missile threats of most immediate concern." The commission mentions both the deterrent effect of a missile defense system and its potential for shielding and reassuring allies.
These capabilities may contribute to deterrence by raising doubts in a potential aggressor's mind about the prospects of success in attempts to coerce or attack others. They may contribute to assurance of allies, by increasing their protection and also reducing the risks that the United States would face in protecting them against a regional aggressor.
The commission "strongly supports continued missile defense cooperation with allies" Such as Israel and Japan. This cooperation involves missile defense systems designedto combat short- and medium-range missiles, such as THAAD, PAC 3, and the sea-based Aegis system. Citing current plans to deploy 96 THAAD and 133 sea-based SM-3 interceptors, the commission states that "these numbers should be reviewed if the threat from North Korean or Iranian missiles increases." The gradual expansion of Iranian, Chinese, and North Korean missiles would indeed seem to warrant such a review. Yet these systems may also need to be supplemented by others to form a global and layered defense.
The Commission expresses less confidence in the Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) currently deployed in California and Alaska, with ten additional interceptors slated for deployment at a third site in Poland.
This system has demonstrated some capability against unsophisticated threats and should undergo additional system testing to determine its effectiveness against more complex threats that include technologies intended to help in-coming missiles penetrate the defense (so-called penetration aids). Further development and deployment...should depend on results of these tests and on developments in the ICBM threats facing the United States and its allies.
No single system is capable of defending against all threats of course. Yet the Commission misses an opportunity to explore the significant advantages offered by a multi-layered missile defense system.
The Commission recommends that missile defense policy should balance the need for national defense with the "legitimate concerns of Russia and China about strategic stability." In other words, a vigorous pursuit of defensive capabilities might lead Russia or China to "take actions that increase the threat to the United States and its allies and friends," such as enhancing their own arsenals or proliferating missile technologies to others.
The commission ends its report with a discussion of EMP:
Lastly, the United States should take steps to reduce the vulnerability of the nation and the military to attacks with weapons designed to produce electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects. We make this recommendation although the Commission is divided over how imminent a threat this is. Some commissioners believe it to be a high priority threat, given foreign activities and terrorist intentions. Others see it as a serious potential threat, given the high level of vulnerability.
A recommendation for the hardening of America's electrical grid follows. The report leaves unmentioned the potential a multi-layered missile defense system might have in meeting the threat of EMP. (Link)
» Strategic Posture Report 2009
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» Missile system details for: Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3), Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Kennedy on the Effects of EMP Attack
November 24, 2008 :: The Wall Street Journal :: Analysis
Brian T. Kennedy, president of the Claremont Institute, writes in today's Wall Street Journal on the widespread effects a single nuclear weapon could have on the United States, if Russia, China, or Iran were to use it as electromagnetic pulse weapon. An excerpt from the piece:
Think about this scenario: An ordinary-looking freighter ship heading toward New York or Los Angeles launches a missile from its hull or from a canister lowered into the sea. It hits a densely populated area. A million people are incinerated. The ship is then sunk. No one claims responsibility. There is no firm evidence as to who sponsored the attack, and thus no one against whom to launch a counterstrike.
But as terrible as that scenario sounds, there is one that is worse. Let us say the freighter ship launches a nuclear-armed Shahab-3 missile off the coast of the U.S. and the missile explodes 300 miles over Chicago. The nuclear detonation in space creates an electromagnetic pulse (EMP).
Gamma rays from the explosion, through the Compton Effect, generate three classes of disruptive electromagnetic pulses, which permanently destroy consumer electronics, the electronics in some automobiles and, most importantly, the hundreds of large transformers that distribute power throughout the U.S. All of our lights, refrigerators, water-pumping stations, TVs and radios stop running. We have no communication and no ability to provide food and water to 300 million Americans.
This is what is referred to as an EMP attack, and such an attack would effectively throw America back technologically into the early 19th century. It would require the Iranians to be able to produce a warhead as sophisticated as we expect the Russians or the Chinese to possess. But that is certainly attainable. Common sense would suggest that, absent food and water, the number of people who could die of deprivation and as a result of social breakdown might run well into the millions.
Let us be clear. A successful EMP attack on the U.S. would have a dramatic effect on the country, to say the least. Even one that only affected part of the country would cripple the economy for years. Dropping nuclear weapons on or retaliating against whoever caused the attack would not help. And an EMP attack is not far-fetched.
Twice in the last eight years, in the Caspian Sea, the Iranians have tested their ability to launch ballistic missiles in a way to set off an EMP. The congressionally mandated EMP Commission, with some of America's finest scientists, has released its findings and issued two separate reports, the most recent in April, describing the devastating effects of such an attack on the U.S.
The only solution to this problem is a robust, multilayered missile-defense system. The most effective layer in this system is in space, using space-based interceptors that destroy an enemy warhead in its ascent phase when it is easily identifiable, slower, and has not yet deployed decoys. We know it can work from tests conducted in the early 1990s. We have the technology. What we lack is the political will to make it a reality.
(Article, Link)
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Alaska to Revise Emergency Response Plan to Include Preparation for EMP Attack
May 29, 2007 :: News
On May 24, the Alaska State Emergency Response Commission was briefed by the Institute of the North, based in Anchorage, on the dangers from an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack delivered by ballistic missiles. As a result of this briefing, Alaska will include preparation for an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack when it revises its emergency response plan.
An electromagnetic pulse occurs when a nuclear warhead is detonated between 40 and 400 kilometers above the Earth's surface. The explosion creates a pulse that disrupts and damages electric power grids and electronic devices; a nuclear weapon with a yield of 30 kilotons detonated at an altitude of 100 kilometers could have devastating effects of up to 70% of electrical systems up to a thousand miles in every direction.
Testifying before the Alaska State Emergency Response Commission, Institute of the North Senior Fellow Mead Treadwell noted that, "What makes contingency planning on this issue so critical is that in the case of an EMP attack, Alaska could be losing all these capacities at once, without being able to call upon outside assistance."
Alaska Homeland Security Director John Madden, co-chair of the Alaska State Emergency Response Commission, stated that planning for the threat of EMP will include integration, implementation and survivability measures, and that he plans to present the issue before the Department of Homeland Security later this summer in order to raise EMP preparedness as a national issue, not just an Alaska issue.
Treadwell also urged the Commission to consider the cost-benefit implications for EMP emergency planning since even a one-time attack would be financially devastating. "Indeed, such a calculation could factor into national decisions regarding expanding a missile defense program," he added.
Treadwell quoted author Thomas Schelling to emphasize that, though unprecedented, there is, "…a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable. The contingency we have not considered looks strange; what looks strange is therefore improbable; what seems improbable need not be considered seriously."
A report by the 2004 Commission to Assess the Threat to the Untied States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack noted that, "…one or a few high-altitude nuclear detonations can produce EMP effects that can potentially disrupt or damage electronic and electrical systems over much of the United States, virtually simultaneously, at a time determined by an adversary." The executive summary of the EMP Commission report is viewable online at www.missilethreat.com/empreport.
The briefing follows the release of a nationwide survey of Adjutants General on issues such as missile defense and EMP attack that was conducted jointly by the Anchorage-based Institute of the North and the Claremont Institute of Claremont, California. Survey results revealed that our nation’s National Guard leaders are unprepared to respond to an EMP attack and would like further information on the subject.
Both the Institute of the North and the Claremont Institute, publisher of the website www.missilethreat.com, have been working closely together for more than 10 years on policy issues related to the strategic defense of the United States. One goal of the collaboration is to help state and local officials and citizens understand policy options at all levels related to ballistic missile defense. (Link)
» Press Release on Insitute of the North Briefing for Alaska State Emergency Response Commission
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Survey of Adjutants General Reveals States Unprepared for EMP, Missile Attack
March 7, 2007 :: Analysis
America's state-based emergency responders are not actively preparing against an attack on the United States by electromagnetic pulse (EMP), according to the Adjutants General who oversee National Guard units throughout the country. Such an attack could disable most of the nation's electric power grid, telecommunications, automobiles, and computers with a single, high altitude, nuclear blast. An EMP attack is an increasingly likely possibility as ballistic missile and nuclear technology continue to proliferate.
A survey of state-based Adjutants General throughout the United States, entitled Missile Defense and the Role of the States, was conducted jointly over the last year by the Anchorage-based Institute of the North and the Claremont Institute of Claremont, California.
The survey, entitled Missile Defense and the Role of the States, was conducted jointly over the last year by the Anchorage-based Institute of the North and the Claremont Institute of Claremont, California. The survey's questions were sent to Adjutants General of all 50 states, with more than half of the states' Adjutants General responding to the questionnaire.
Although 96% of state Adjutants General indicated significant concern over an EMP attack, the majority had done little or no analysis of the impact of an overhead EMP attack to potential targets in their particular state. Likewise, most admitted little or no preparation in the areas of training, equipment/EMP hardening, and exercises/procedure.
This finding differs with a 2004 recommendation by the congressionally mandated Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack, which urged states to coordinate with the federal government to prepare an emergency response plan against EMP: "Working with state authorities and private-sector organizations, the Department of Homeland Security should develop draft protocols for implementation by emergency and other government responders following EMP attack, Red Team these extensively, and then institutionalize validated protocols through issuance of standards, training, and exercises."
An electromagnetic pulse is created by detonating a nuclear warhead between 40 and 400 kilometers above the earth's surface. The electromagnetic field created by the nuclear detonation at that altitude creates a "pulse" which can disrupt and disable electronic computers, electric power, telephone and information systems over a significant geographic area. Furthermore, a space-based nuclear blast could also disable satellites that would enable the U.S. to identify the source of and respond to such an attack.
The 2004 EMP report noted that, "...one or a few high-altitude nuclear detonations can produce EMP effects that can potentially disrupt or damage electronic and electrical systems over much of the United States, virtually simultaneously, at a time determined by an adversary." The executive summary of the EMP Commission report is viewable online at www.missilethreat.com/empreport.
The Institute of the North/Claremont Institute survey indicates that National Guard leaders would like increased briefings on the missile threat in general and the EMP threat in particular. While 74% of Adjutants General had been briefed on the threat from Russian ballistic missiles, only 44% had received briefings on the threat posed by ship-borne or "stateless" missiles, and 41% indicated that they received no regular briefings regarding ballistic missile threats.
Survey results also highlight overwhelming agreement (93%) that the United States needs an effective missile defense system. A majority of survey respondents supported a "layered" missile defense, composed of ground-, sea-, air-, and space-based interceptors. Furthermore, 59% of participants stated that they envisioned their state's National Guard having a role in the development, testing, manning, and deployment of missile defense systems which could prevent an EMP attack overhead.
None of the Adjutants General surveyed indicated that they were actively involved in a formal planning process on EMP attack. The survey authors suggest policy options urging states to direct contingency planning in which they create their own realistic scenarios that demonstrate the potential effects of cruise and ballistic missiles, weapons of mass destruction, and EMP attack, thus increasing state preparedness. States are also encouraged to coordinate defense efforts with the Department of Homeland Security.
"A question state policy makers may want to ask themselves is, ‘Does our state have an EMP contingency plan?,'" said Mead Treadwell of the Institute of the North: "If not, we should get on with it, as the EMP Commission recommends."
"The United States Congress has continued the EMP Commission's work since it issued its report in 2004," said Tom Karako of the Claremont Institute. "Their report was published the same day as the 9/11 Commission, but it has been too long ignored."
Survey results and a summary report were mailed to state governors and Adjutants General for their review. Based on the survey's findings, the Institute of the North and the Claremont Institute plan to follow-up by publishing a regular newsletter highlighting ways in which state military leaders and policy makers can raise awareness and increase involvement in their state. Both institutes have been working closely together for over ten years on policy issues related to the strategic defense of the United States. Their goal is to help state and local officials and citizens understand the issues related to ballistic missile defense.
The project was initiated by Mead Treadwell, senior fellow at the Institute of the North, and Tom Karako, editor of www.missilethreat.com, an online project of the Claremont Institute. Both are members of an independent working group which recently published the report, Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century.
(Link)
» Press Release for Missile Defense and the States project report
» Project Report: Missile Defense and the States, a project of the Institute of the North and the Claremont Institute
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Helprin on the Chinese Nuclear Threat
March 5, 2007 :: Washington Post :: Analysis
Claremont Institute Senior Fellow Mark Helprin writes on the growing threat from Chinese ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, in the March 4 edition of the Washington Post. Helprin notes China's steady and disciplined rise in military power, and that despite recent friendly overtones, China's long term intentions may sharply differ from those of the United States. Helprin notes too the ability which China, along with ballistic missile and nuclear-armed nations, to threaten the United States with a debelitating Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack, which would target the immense and vulnerable power grid on which the United States economy is so wholly dependent. The congressionally-mandated commission to assess the EMP threat delivered its report in 2004, but since then almost no action has been taken. An excerpt:
Given China's appetites and our alliances and interests, a war is not inconceivable in Taiwan, or in Korea. To remove American nuclear escalation from the equation, China would need not parity but only a deterrent such as it has long possessed. The Chinese, however, whose nuclear thresholds are dissimilar to ours, would have other options.
They know that every facet of America's economy, military and society depends on individual and networked electronic devices. Were these to fail all at once and irreparably, the nation would seize up, perhaps for years.
Faced with victory, or with loss, they might choose to -- and who would venture to guarantee that they would not? -- detonate half a dozen high-megatonnage nuclear charges in the mesosphere, in an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) strike perhaps not even in American airspace, cooking almost every circuit and semiconductor, rendering the American government blind, deaf and dumber than it is already and the country unable to resist the inroads that would surely follow.
Though we would undoubtedly respond in kind, China is not as technically dependent as are we. Nor, given China's sufficiency for a counterstrike, could we deter an EMP attack with the prospect of massive retaliation, especially because an EMP strike, with no immediate casualties, would seem as peaceful as snow in still air.
The piece also appears in the forthcoming issue of the Claremont Review of Books. The full text: (More »»»)
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Pentagon Studies “Remediation” System to Defend Satellites
August 14, 2006 :: UPI :: News
The Pentagon is researching a new system to defend U.S. satellites from high-altitude nuclear detonations and solar storms. The “radiation belt remediation” system, as it is known, would protect low-orbiting satellites from being damaged by charged particles in unusually intense radiation belts created by high-altitude nuclear explosions or solar storms. The “remediation” system would generate very low frequency radio waves to flush particles from the radiation belts and dump them into the upper atmosphere over one or several days. The project is being pursued by the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
Some scientists, however, have noted that the “remediation” system could cause communication blackouts among high frequency radio transmissions and GPS navigation signals. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Nuclear Weapons, Space-Based Systems
Gaffney: Missiles Abroad Should Concentrate the American Mind
July 25, 2006 :: Washington Times :: Analysis
The development, deployment, and proliferation of ballistic missile technology abroad requires a “concentration” of American minds and a concerted effort to develop robust missile defenses, writes Frank J. Gaffney Jr., president of the Center for Security Policy, in The Washington Times. Gaffney catalogues the missile threats that have grown in recent years: North Korea’s readiness to sell missile technology to willing buyers; Pakistan’s intention to build as many as 40 to 50 nuclear warheads per year; Iran’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology; China’s ever increasing missile arsenal; and Russia’s development of newer intercontinental ballistic missiles possibly with maneuverable re-entry vehicles.
Gaffney makes particular note of the fact that Iran has test launched a short-range Scud missile off of a ship, which would allow it to attack the U.S. without developing an intercontinental ballistic missile. He also points out that Iran has tested its medium-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile in a manner that appears designed to detonate a nuclear weapon in space. Such a detonation above the U.S. would result in an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) capable of wiping out electrical systems and crippling the U.S. infrastructure and economy.
Gaffney suggests that the Bush administration carefully examine the newly released report by the Independent Working Group, entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship and the Twenty-First Century, which lays out a roadmap for the development and deployment of a robust, layered, and effective U.S. missile defense shield. The report calls for the deployment of space-based defenses and the expansion of sea-based defenses, and describes ways in which the necessary technical, public, and political support can be obtained and sustained. (Article, Link)
» Read the 2007 report: The Independent Working Group on Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century (8 MB)
» More stories on: Analysis, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Iran, Ship-Launched Threat
» Missile details: Scud B/C/D variants, Shahab-6
Gaffney Warns of North Korean EMP Attack, Calls for Increased Missile Defense
June 20, 2006 :: National Review Online :: Analysis
Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy, warns in National Review Online that the U.S. remains vulnerable to an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) attack from North Korea. If North Korea were to detonate a nuclear warhead high in the atmosphere above the U.S., the resulting burst of immensely powerful energy would devastate nearly every form of electrical system in the nation. In 2004, a blue-ribbon commission tasked by Congress with assessing the EMP threat found that it could have a “catastrophic” effect, possibly reducing the U.S. to a pre-industrial society. The commission noted that an EMP could be delivered with a “relatively unsophisticated missile,” and named North Korea as one of the states that could be seeking such a capability. In his article, Gaffney calls upon the U.S. to “make a redoubled effort to deploy effective, comprehensive defenses against ballistic missiles that might be used for EMP and other attacks.” He urges the Pentagon to augment the modest ground-based systems in Alaska and California, in particular with increased sea-based defenses that could shoot down North Korean missiles at various points in their flight path. (Article, Link)
» July 22, 2004: EMP Commission Report Points to Need for Missile Defense
» More stories on: Analysis, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, North Korea
» Missile details: Tien Ma 1
Congressman Bartlett on EMP Threat
June 25, 2005 :: G2 Bulletin :: News
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) joins the many Congressmen recently warning that the U.S. is vulnerable to an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack, reports Joseph Farrah’s G2 Bulletin. An EMP attack is generated when a nuclear weapon is detonated several dozen kilometers above the Earth’s surface, producing a large electromagnetic pulse. Such an attack would destroy a nation’s entire electric power infrastructure, resulting in cascading failures in energy, telecommunications, transportation, finance, food, and water. Bartlett warns that such an attack is imminently possible: “Terrorists could steal, purchase, or be provided a nuclear weapon and perform an EMP attack against the United States simply by launching a primitive Scud missile off a freighter near our shores.” He points out that Iran recently test-launched a Scud missile from a surface vessel, and also that North Korea could develop an EMP weapon in the near future. Bartlett correctly argues that the U.S. must act quickly to harden the nation’s infrastructure to withstand such an attack.
Another critical step must be taken: The U.S. must build and maintain a robust missile defense shield capable of protecting the homeland. Such a defense—which would incorporate defensive systems based on air, land, sea, and space—would cause a rogue nation or terrorist-sponsoring state to think twice before launching such an attack. Until then, the U.S. will remain vulnerable. (Article, Link)
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