2009 Report on Chinese Military Power
March 26, 2009 :: Department of Defense :: News
The Defense Department this week released its 2009 report, Military Power of the People's Republic of China, as mandated by Congress. The annual report describes China's continued development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the development of a new class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, and the steady increase of medium range ballistic missiles near both the China-India border and the Chinese coast near Taiwan. China also continues to pursue both counterspace and cyberwarfare capabilities, which could threaten America's considerable reliance upon space and electronic assets.
As it does every year, the Chinese government reacted negatively to the report. Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang suggested that the United States "drop the Cold War thinking and prejudices, stop releasing such China military reports and stop the groundless accusations over China."
Ballistic and Cruise Missiles
China, the report observes, "has the most active land-based ballistic and cruise missile program in the world."
One highlight of China's missile efforts is the development of an anti-ship variant of the CSS-5 ballistic missile. This anti-ship missile has a considerable range, of some 1,500 km. Its final stage is designed for maneuverable reentry, making its target more difficult to anticipate, and thus complicating defense against the missile. Such a missile could enhance the Chinese ability to attack ships at sea, including for example American aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait.
Unchanged from the 2008 report, China continues to deploy road-mobile solid-fueled ICBMs—most notably the DF-31A, which brings within range any location in the continental United States. The DF-31 and DF-31A are the newest and most sophisticated ICBMs in China's arsenal. Their mobility and solid-fuel engines also make them among the most survivable.
The Pentagon's estimate of China's inventory of CSS-2, CSS-3, CSS-4, DF-31, DF-31A and CSS-5 ballistic missiles remains unchanged in number from last year. China has, however, increased its inventory since 2007 of CSS-6s (from 315-355 to 350-400), of CSS-7s (from 675-715 to 700-750), and of DH-10 cruise missiles (from 50-250 to 150-350).
The JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is still being developed. Once completed, the JL-2 will be deployed aboard new JIN-class (Type 094) submarines. With a range of 7,200 km, the JL-2 would give China its "first credible sea-based nuclear strike capability."
China's industrial ability to produce and upgrade short- and medium-range ballistic missiles has also increased. The Pentagon estimates China could significantly increase the number of short range missiles it produces each year, and could even double the annual output of medium range missiles. The increased production capability may be designed to create a missile export market, thereby proliferating such systems abroad.
China continues to expand the force opposite Taiwan; seven brigades are now stationed nearby, comprising a total of 1,050-1,150 CSS-6 and CSS-7 short range missiles. China continues to augment its missiles within striking distance of Taiwan at the "rate of more than 100 per year."
Along its border with India, China has replaced its older liquid-fueled nuclear-capable CSS-3 intermediate range missiles with more sophisticated solid-fueled CSS-5 medium range missiles.
China continues to produce and purchase an array of sophisticated and accurate cruise missiles, including the DH-10 and YJ-62 land-attack cruise missiles and the Russian SS-N-22/SUNBURN supersonic air-launched cruise missile. The SS-N-27B/SIZZLER supersonic air-launched cruise missile is placed on China's KILO-class diesel electric submarines purchased from Russia. The YJ-62C, a new variant of the YJ-62, has a range of 150 nautical miles; China has reportedly deployed 120 of these to naval bases near Taiwan.
Submarines and Ships
China's growing submarine fleet could begin to pose a threat to the United States navy. Two new SHANG-class (Type 093) nuclear-powered attack submarines and one JIN-class (Type 094) submarine, previously scheduled to enter service last year, are now operational. The JIN-class is of particular interest, as it will be the deployment vehicle for the JL-2 ballistic missile now in development.
These newer submarines will supplement China's four older HAN-class nuclear attack submarines and China's one XIA-class sub. The DoD estimates that China has 13 SONG-class (Type 039) diesel-electric attack submarines, designed to carry the YJ-82 (CH-SS-N-7) anti-ship cruise missile. The next generation attack submarine is the YUAN-class SS: one of these is already operational and another is undergoing sea trials. Judging from China's purchase of diesel engines from Germany, the report estimates that China plans to build up to 15 additional YUAN-class attack submarines.
China's guided-missile destroyers have been hardened and are being given anti-aircraft capabilities, including both Russian and indigenous surface to air missiles (SAMs). These include the Russian SA-N-20 long-range SAM and China's own medium-range HHQ-16, a vertically launched naval SAM under development.
Space and Counterspace
Since China successfully tested a direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in January 2007 using a ballistic missile, China has continued to pursue ASAT capabilities. The 2009 report describes China's interest in counterspace systems as "more than theoretical. In addition to the ‘kinetic kill' capability demonstrated by the ASAT test, the PLA is developing the ability to jam, blind, or otherwise disable satellites and their terrestrial support infrastructure."
China placed fifteen satellites into orbit in 2008, including four new remote sensing satellites, a manned spacecraft and a companion satellite, three communications satellites, and two satellites for meteorology. In April 2008, China launched its first data relay satellite, the TianLian-1.
Construction has begun for a new rocket launch facility near Wenchang to eventually place heavier payloads in space using its March V booster rocket (the world's largest) still in development.
China's first lunar probe, the Chang'e-1, continues to operate successfully. Its successor will launch in 2009 and will survey the moon surface. China, however, continues to "remain silent about the military applications of [its] space programs and counterspace activities."
Cyberwarfare
China continues to experiment with cyberwarfare. The PRC appears to have been the source of numerous cyber intrusions during 2008, including against computer systems owned by the U.S. Government. These hacks were intended to extract information rather than attack, but the logistics and skill-set required for each activity are similar.
Spending
China's defense spending grew 18% in 2008. China reports its annual military budget as $60 billion, but this number is widely recognized as understated. Pentagon estimates of actual military spending range from $105 to $150 billion. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, China, Cruise Missiles, Taiwan
» Missile details: CSS-3 (DF-4), CSS-4 (DF-5), CSS-4 (DF-5A), CSS-5 (DF-21), CSS-5 Mod 2 (DF-21A/B), CSS-6 (DF-15/M-9), CSS-7 (DF-11), CSS-7 Mod 2 (DF-11A), CSS-8 (M-7), CSS-9 (DF-31/DF-31A), CSS-N-3 (JL-1), CSS-N-3 (JL-1A), CSS-NX-5/CSS-NX-4 (JL-2)
India and Russia Aim BrahMos at Export Market
November 30, 2006 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
India and Russia aim to export the new BrahMos supersonic cruise missile to Persian Gulf, East Asian, and Latin American countries, reports the January 1, 2007, issue of Jane’s Defence Industry. According to Indian Defense Minister Arackaparambil Kurian Antony, the BrahMos has drawn “considerable interest” in these countries and has “tremendous market potential.” Antony added that “the Indian and Russian governments will make a joint decision on the countries to whom the missile will be exported.”
The BrahMos, which derives its name from the Brahmaputra and Moscow rivers in India and Russia, is based on the earlier Russian design for the SS-N-26 (3M55 Oniks) cruise missile. In 1998, a joint venture was set up between the Indian Defense Ministry’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Russia’s Mashinostroyeniye Company. The two entities formed a company now known as Brahmos Aerospace, which would develop and manufacture the BrahMos PJ-10. In September 2006, Jane’s reported that the Indian Navy had started deploying the BrahMos missile on its frontline warships, with the DRDO also working on development of a submarine-launched version that could be ready in two to three years. Jane’s also reported that the Indian Air Force will integrate the BrahMos missile onto its Su-30MKI multirole fighters by December 2007. (Link)
» More stories on: Russia, Proliferation, India, Cruise Missiles
India to Test Launch Sagarika Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile in 2008
November 12, 2006 :: News
India plans to test launch its Sagarika submarine-launched nuclear-capable cruise missile in early 2008, according to Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) sources. The Sagarika, which is being developed by the DRDO, is reported to have a range of 1,200 km and to be capable of delivering a 500 kg warhead. The DRDO sources indicated that the missile’s first prototype, which is powered by a solid fuel rocket booster and a turbojet engine, should be ready for a test flight by early 2008. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Cruise Missiles, India
George Marshall Institute Hosts Roundtable on Cruise Missile Defense
September 30, 2006 :: Marshall Institute :: News
On Tuesday, September 26, the George C. Marshall Institute hosted a forum on cruise missile defense at the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, D.C. Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, gave the opening remarks, stressing the importance of defending the homeland and U.S. troops and allies overseas from the cruise missile threat. “Our enemy has the political will to cause death and destruction of catastrophic proportions to the United States, but they do not have the capacity to do it yet,” Franks said. “Americans have the capacity to defend ourselves; we just need to steel the will of the American people and of the Congress so that we can defend ourselves from these emerging threats.”
The Congressman’s speech was followed by a roundtable discussion with Captain Robert Barwis of the Joint Theater Air and Missile Defense Organization (JTAMDO); John Heidenrich, a senior policy analyst at Science Applications International Organization (SAIO); and Christopher Bolkcom, an analyst in national defense at the Congressional Research Service (CRS). The discussion focused on the nature of the threat and the unique challenge of protecting the homeland against cruise missiles, which are difficult to identify and track and could be easily confused with commercial airliners. The participants also discussed possible strategies for deploying an effective cruise missile defense. (Link)
» Press Release for Congressman Trent Franks’ keynote address on cruise missile defense
» More stories on: Cruise Missile Defenses, Cruise Missiles
China Upgrades H-6 Bombers to Carry Intermediate-Range Cruise Missiles
September 29, 2006 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
China is believed to have upgraded its H-6 “Badger” medium bombers to carry intermediate-range, anti-ship cruise missiles, reports the November 1 issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets. The H-6 “Badger” is a Chinese copy of the Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-16. The upgraded versions, designated H-6K and H-6M, are believed to now have the ability to carry four large cruise missiles beneath their wings. The bombers could carry the extended-range YJ-83 (CSSC-8 “Saccade”), an air-launched version of the YJ-62/C-602 anti-ship cruise missile. In addition, the Chinese press has published photographs of the prototype H-6 carrying unknown missiles resembling the Soviet-designed AS-15 Kent” (Kh-55) intermediate-range, land attack cruise missile, according to Jane’s. In recent years, the Chinese press has stressed the People’s Liberation Army’s capabilities against large surface ships, including U.S. aircraft carriers. (Link)
» More stories on: China, Cruise Missiles
China Offers YJ-62/C-602 Anti-Ship Cruise Missile for Export
September 27, 2006 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
China is offering its YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missile on the international market under the export designation C-602, reports the October 4 issue of Jane’s Defence Weekly. The new missile was displayed from September 20 to 24 at the African Aerospace and Defence exhibition at Ysterplaat Air Base in Cape Town, South Africa. It marked the first time that the C-602 has been formally shown abroad and offered for sale, according to officials from the China National Precision Machinery Import & Export Corporation (CPMIEC). The YJ-62/C-602 is a short-range, sea-skimming, anti-ship missile that can be launched from land or sea. Each missile carries a 300 kg armor-piercing high-explosive warhead. A standard coastal battery consists of four launch vehicles, each holding three missiles, plus command and support vehicles. When deployed at sea, the YJ-62/C-602 launchers are typically positioned in pairs. To date the system has been fitted to Type 052C (Lanzhou-class) destroyers of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, although CPMIEC notes that the YJ-62/C-602 can also be carried by frigate-sized escort vessels. (Link)
» More stories on: China, Cruise Missiles, Proliferation
South Korea Develops New Cruise Missile
September 21, 2006 :: UPI :: News
South Korea has developed a Tomahawk-style cruise missile, reports the UPI. The missile is believed to have a range of approximately 500 km and would be capable of striking almost all of North Korea’s missile sites, including the facility in Musudan-ri from where a set of missiles including a long-range Taepodong-2 was fired in July. The South Korean missile is equipped with a terrain-matching navigation system, as is capable of flying as low as 50 to 100 m to avoid radar detection. According to the South Korean daily JoongAng Ilbo, the new missile was developed jointly by the South Korean military and the state-run Agency for Defense Development. Under a 1979 accord with Washington, Seoul is allowed to develop cruise missiles with no restriction on range as long as its payload is less than 500 kg. South Korea plans to produce additional cruise missiles, to be named “Cheon Ryong” (Sky Dragon), within a year or two for ground or submarine deployment. It is also seeking to develop a cruise missile with a range of 1,000 km within five years. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Cruise Missiles, North Korea, South Korea
Russia to Dismantle Five Nuclear Submarines by 2010
September 13, 2006 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
Russia will dismantle five nuclear-powered Victor-class (Type 671) submarines from its Pacific Fleet by 2010, reports RIA-Novosti. The vessels are being scrapped under the joint Russian-Japanese Star of Hope Program for Dismantling Decommissioned Nuclear Submarines, which was adopted in 2003 when Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited Russia. Deputy Foreign Minister Shintaro Ito told a news conference in Vladivostok yesterday that the dismantling of the first Victor-class submarine will begin at the Zvezda Shipyard, in a suburb of Vladivostok, and will take about 10 months. During the dismantlement process, spent nuclear fuel will be removed from the submarine’s reactors and sent to storage, the hull will be cut into three sections, and the bow and stern sections will be removed and destroyed. The reactor section will be sealed and transferred to storage. Japan has allocated 20 billion yen ($171 million) for the project, according to Ito.
The nuclear-powered Victor-class submarines are believed to have entered service in the Soviet Union around 1967, and were primarily designed to protect Soviet surface fleets and to attack U.S. ballistic missile submarines. Most were armed with torpedoes as well as SS-N-15 or SS-N-21 cruise missiles. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Cruise Missiles, Japan, Russia, Sea-Based Systems
India to Fit BrahMos Cruise Missile to Su-30MK1 Fighters
September 5, 2006 :: Jane's Information Group :: News
India is preparing to configure the BrahMos PJ-10 cruise missile to be deployed on Su-30MK1 fighter aircraft, reports the September 6 issue of Jane’s Defence Weekly. Static and dynamic tests on the ground for this air-launched version are reportedly underway. The BrahMos, which derives its name from the Brahmaputra and Moscow rivers in India and Russia, is based on the earlier Russian design for the SS-N-26 (3M55 Oniks) cruise missile. In 1998, a joint venture was set up between the Indian Defense Ministry’s Defense Research and Development Organization and Russia’s Mashinostroyeniye Company. The two entities formed a company now known as BrahMos Aerospace, which would develop and manufacture the BrahMos.
In 2006, reports indicated that Russia and India plan to manufacture 1,000 BrahMos missiles over the next 10 years through their joint venture company. Of these 1,000 missiles, nearly 50 percent will be exported to client states. Jane’s adds that the Indian Army will introduce a ground-based version of the missile in 2007, and that a submarine-launched variant is also under development. (Link)
» More stories on: Cruise Missiles, India, Proliferation, Russia
Pentagon Finds Cruise Missile Defense “Gaps,” Warns of Ship-Launched Threat
August 17, 2006 :: Inside Defense :: News
A Pentagon assessment of the U.S. ability to defend the homeland against cruise missile attack has founds nine “credibility gaps” that may not be solved until 2015, reports Inside Defense. These “gaps” include an inability to get information on potential targets; insufficient surveillance coverage; an inability to detect small, low-altitude targets; an inability to create a common operating picture; an inability of sensor systems to provide adequate tracking information; an inability of sensors to determine or predict the intent of a cruise missile; an inability of sensors to provide senior military officials with enough information to make informed decisions; an inadequate supply of information from other government agencies; and a lack of defensive platforms able to cover the North American continent. The assessment adds that Pentagon officials are increasingly concerned with the threat of terrorists using a cargo ship stationed outside U.S. territorial waters as a platform from which to launch cruise missiles. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Cruise Missile Defenses, Cruise Missiles, Ship-Launched Threat
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