Hong Kong Op-Ed: China Will Not Help Disarm North Korea
August 2, 2006 :: The Standard (Hong Kong) :: Analysis
China will not prove helpful in disarming North Korea, writes Liu Kin-ming in Hong Kong’s The Standard. Liu analyzes a recent statement by General Guo Boxiong, vice-chairman of China’s powerful Central Military Commission, following North Korea’s July 5 test launch of seven ballistic missiles. Speaking at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., on July 19, Guo told the audience: “We only learned of North Korea’s missile tests on July 5 through U.S. intelligence broadcast by the media. At that time, I myself and the relevant people in our government were all very surprised. North Korea is a sovereign state. We can’t force it to do or not to do things.” He continued: “Let me be honest with you. What will North Korea do next? China doesn’t know. I also don’t know.” Liu notes that China’s influence over its neighbor could be limited, as evidenced by Pyongyang’s improper treatment of a top-level Chinese delegation just before its July 5 test launch. Liu emphasizes, however, that regardless of whether or not Guo’s statement about relying upon U.S. intelligence and monitoring is true, it shows that China does not plan to be of any help in disarming Pyongyang. “If Guo’s statement is true, Beijing has no influence over Pyongyang,” he writes. “If the statement isn’t true, Beijing thinks the Americans are the worst suckers on earth.” (Article, Link)
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Reports: North Korean Taep’o-dong Exploded 1.5 km from Launch Site
July 30, 2006 :: Reuters :: News
U.S. military sources report today that the Taep’o-dong 2 long-range ballistic missile test fired by North Korea on July 5 exploded in midair within some 1.5 kilometers of its launch site. The new information contradicts earlier claims by the Japanese government, which had estimated that the Taep’o-dong 2 had reached the Sea of Japan 400-600 km away from the Musudanri missile base in North Hamgyong Province. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: Tien Ma 1
LA Times: North Korea-Iran Ties Strengthening
July 27, 2006 :: LA Times :: News
The Los Angeles Times today published a report on the growing ties between North Korea and Iran, including the possible sale of ballistic missiles to Tehran. The report quotes Israeli intelligence sources, who believe that the Islamic Republic recently bought 18 intermediate-range missiles from Pyongyang. In April 2006, Israeli intelligence chief Amos Yadlin stated that Israel had evidence that the sale had taken place, and that the 18 missiles in question were based on the Russian SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile. According to Yadlin, the North Korean variant has a range of 2,500 km, which would allow Iran to attack Israel and much of southern Europe. The Los Angeles Times also quotes Uzi Rubin, former head of the Israeli missile defense program, who recently stated that Iran is also interested in North Korea’s long-range Taep’o-dong 2 ballistic missile, which would greatly extend its striking power.
According to the Times, the North Korea-Iran nexus dates back to the 1980s when Pyongyang sold missiles and launchers to Tehran for use in the Iran-Iraq War. The two nations later collaborated on the development of Iran’s Shahab missiles, which are based on the North Korean No-dong. In recent years, satellites have spotted Iranian cargo planes at Pyongyang’s Sunan Airport, and U.S. intelligence now believes that Iran conducted a missile test on North Korea’s behalf on at least one occasion. Last week, reports emerged that Iranian observers had been on hand to witness North Korea’s July 4 test launch of seven long- and short-range missiles, including the Taep’o-dong 2. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, Israel, North Korea, Proliferation
» Missile details: SS-N-17, Tien Ma 1
Kennedy on the Common Sense of Missile Defense
July 22, 2006 :: Investor’s Business Daily :: Writings
Brian T. Kennedy, president of the Claremont Institute, explains in Investor’s Business Daily why missile defense is a common sense necessity in the age of rogue nations such as North Korea. Kennedy notes that while most U.S. policymakers seem to believe that Kim Jong Il would never launch a missile at the U.S., such a scenario exists. He sketches out a plausible scenario that Kim Jong Il might arrive at the conclusion that a nuclear attack against the U.S. might not even bring about a retaliatory strike from Washington:
Imagine Kim Jong Il calculated that he could launch a nuclear missile against Seattle—well within range of his Taepodong-2 missile. He would first recall that the U.S. did not use nuclear weapons during the Korean War, Vietnam War, Iran hostage crisis, bombing of Marines in Beirut, terrorist attacks by al-Qaida throughout the 1990s or the 9-11 assault.
In each case, measured military action was taken, great effort was made not to endanger civilians and a central concern was not provoking hostilities with China or Russia. Second, Kim Jong Il might be convinced that China will defend the North Koreans as it has in the past. So what would happen?
Assume China does move to protect the North Koreans in their folly. Chinese President Hu Jintao calls President Bush and declares that the North Korean attack on Seattle was an awful crime, but that any nuclear retaliation will be seen by the Chinese as an attack on China itself. He pledges to help the U.S. rebuild Seattle and promises to deal harshly with the North Koreans.
Likewise, President Vladimir Putin calls to second his Chinese counterpart: Russia, too, will assist in rebuilding and offers to help negotiate a cease-fire—claiming that the last thing the world needs is a nuclear attack by the U.S. on North Korea….
It is possible, perhaps likely, that the U.S. would launch a counterattack using nuclear weapons. This would fulfill the premise of mutually assured destruction, and require a large-scale nuclear attack to destroy the North Korean regime and its military capabilities—especially since the prospect of a North Korean invasion of the South would become a real possibility under such uncertain circumstances.
But would the U.S. attack if it meant a possible nuclear war with China and Russia? Bush is a courageous and patriotic man. But to avoid a full-scale nuclear war and the annihilation of millions of Americans, is it possible that a U.S. president might not retaliate using nuclear weapons and instead accept such an attack as an unfortunate catastrophe that might lead to the unthinkable nuclear war between the superpowers?
(Article, Link)
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WSJ on the Taep’o-dong Democrats’ Opposition to Missile Defense
July 21, 2006 :: The Wall Street Journal :: Analysis
Today’s lead editorial in the Wall Street Journal lambastes “Taep’o-dong Democrats” for their continued opposition to missile defense, even after North Korea’s test launch of its long-range Taep’o-dong 2 ballistic missile. The editorial provides a succinct history of Democratic opposition to missile defense, dating back to 1983 when Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) dismissed President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative as a fanciful “Star Wars” program. Ten years later, with President Clinton in the Oval Office, Democrats starved SDI of funding and eliminated promising research and development initiatives such as Brilliant Pebbles. Congressional Republicans managed to keep the program alive as part of their Contract with America, although they were forced to spend the greater part of the 1990s battling the Clinton administration on the issue. When President Bush withdrew the U.S. from the defunct 1972 ABM Treaty, thus allowing the U.S. to develop missile defense assets to meet the challenges of the post-Cold War era, Democrats stood in firm opposition. Former Vice President Al Gore had actually campaigned in 2000 to keep the treaty; Senator Joe Biden (D-DW) predicted that dropping out of the treaty to build missile defenses would turn the U.S. into “a kind of bully nation”; and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) warned that “we must not set aside the logic of deterrence that has kept us safe for 40 years.” Democrats remained staunchly opposed to missile defense even after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Just this year, Representative John Tierney (D-MA) attempted to cut the Pentagon’s missile defense budget by over 50 percent, a proposal that won the support of more over half of his Democratic colleagues, including would-be Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). This June, Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) attempted to cut off all funding for the ground-based interceptor program, which was recently activated to defend the U.S. against a potential North Korean missile attack.
The Wall Street Journal rightfully takes Democrats to task for maintaining their rigid anti-BMD positions, even after North Korea’s test launching of its long-range Taep’o-dong 2 ballistic missile, which is capable of hitting the continental U.S., the growing nuclear threat from Iran, and the further proliferation of missile technology from rouge nations such as Iran and Syria to terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah. The editorial correctly states that, although no defense system is perfect, the U.S. BMD shield has made significant progress in recent SM-3, PAC-3, and THAAD tests, provides a limited defense against North Korean missiles, adds to the credibility of the U.S. deterrent, reassures our allies abroad, and enhances U.S. influence on the global stage. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: Tien Ma 1
Iranian Observers Present at Recent North Korean Missile Tests
July 20, 2006 :: Reuters :: News
Iranian observers were present at all of the seven recent missile tests by North Korea, according to the State Department. Speaking before a U.S. Senate hearing, Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator with Pyongyang, confirmed that Iranian representatives had observed all seven tests, which included the launch of a Taep’o-dong 2 long-range ballistic missile, and six shorter-range No-dong and Scud missiles.
In recent weeks, U.S. officials have expressed serious concerns that cash-strapped Pyongyang has been attempting to sell its ballistic missiles and possibly nuclear material. “Our understanding is that North Korea has had a number of commercial relations in the Middle East with respect to missiles,” Hill said. The worry is that Pyongyang will proliferate its technology to rogue nations such as Iran, or transnational Islamic terrorist organizations. Hill and Senator George Allen (R-VA) noted that North Korea’s ties with Iran are of even greater concern now, as the Islamic militant group Hezbollah, backed by Iran, fires its Iranian-made rockets and cruise missiles at Israel. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation
» Missile details: No-dong 1, Tien Ma 1
South Korea Announces New Missile Defense Command
July 16, 2006 :: AP :: News
South Korea plans to set up a missile defense command to counter threats from North Korean ballistic missiles and long-range artillery, reports the AP. According to an official from South Korea’s Defense Ministry, the command will be established between September and October 2006 as part of the army. It will be headquartered in central South Korea, and will control the country’s artillery powers including multiple-launch rocket systems and ground-to-ground missiles. The move follows North Korea’s July 5 test launching of at least seven missiles, including the long-range Taep’o-dong 2. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: Tien Ma 1
New Activity Reported at North Korean Missile Bases
July 11, 2006 :: AFP :: News
U.S. and Japanese satellite photographs have detected new activity at a North Korean missile base, reports the Japanese daily Yomiuri Shimbun. The photographs showed medium-range No-Dong missiles being set up on launch pads at a base in southeastern North Korea, as well as fuel tanks located near the launch pads. The missiles were later removed, according to the same report. On Sunday, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso also said that there were “visible signs” of missile activity near a North Korean base, presumably the same one. The new activity comes shortly after North Korea test launched as many as twelve missiles last week, including a long-range Taep’o-dong 2. (Article, Link)
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» Missile details: NHK-1/2, No-dong 1
Japan Considers Preemptive Strike Against North Korea
July 10, 2006 :: AP :: News
Japan is considering whether a preemptive strike on North Korea’s missile bases would violate its constitution, reports the AP. Japan’s constitution currently prohibits the use of military force in settling international disputes, and forbids Japan from sustaining a military for use in warfare. Tokyo, however, has interpreted this to mean that it can protect itself with armed troops, allowing for the existence of the Self-Defense Forces including missile defense assets. Government officials are now discussing a possible legal framework that would allow Tokyo to launch a preemptive strike against North Korea’s ballistic missile arsenal. “If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack … there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.
The debate, like similar calls in the United States to preemptively destroy North Korean missiles, illustrates how vulnerability to ballistic missiles can constrain and narrow a nation’s freedom of action in responding to threats. (Article, Link)
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» Missile system details for: Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense
Seoul Downplays North Korean Test, Draws Domestic Criticism
July 10, 2006 :: The Chosun Ilbo (S. Korea) :: News
In recent days, the South Korean government has attempted to downplay the significance of North Korea’s recent missile tests. Lee Baek-man, public relations secretary to South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun, yesterday issued a statement saying that North Korea’s actions “should not be made into a national security crisis” even though some may try to make it so “for political motives.” The statement noted that the missiles launched by Pyongyang on Wednesday were “not designed to target anyone in particular,” and warned against “making a fuss like Japan.” Suh Choo-suk, the senior presidential secretary for security policy, attempted to clarify this statement by saying that President Roh is trying “not to exaggerate the security tensions the North’s missile launches have created in the eyes of the public.”
Two major South Korean dailies, Chosun Ilbo and Dong-A Ilbo, however, have strongly criticized President Roh and his government for what they view as an extremely weak response to North Korea’s missile tests. Chosun Ilbo, the largest newspaper in the South Korea, referred to its government’s actions as “effectively disregarding the military threat altogether.” Some critics observed that such actions “fits in only too well with the government’s policy of not provoking the North at whatever cost.” Dong-A Ilbo noted that Pyongyang’s Nodong and Scud missiles, all of which are capable of striking South Korea with nuclear warheads, are more threatening to Seoul than to Washington or Toyko and therefore warrant a commensurate level of condemnation, which has not yet materialized. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: North Korea, South Korea
» Missile details: NHK-1/2, Tien Ma 1
