Russia Threatens Missile Deployment in Kaliningrad
July 6, 2007
On July 4, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov warned that Russia could deploy medium-range missiles in the Kaliningrad oblast in Europe if the United States turns down Russia's proposals on anti-missile defense in Europe. Russia has opposed a current U.S. plan to place ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and an X-Band radar facility in the Czech Republic. Russia claims that the plan is devised to blunt Russia's influence in the region and diminish its strategic nuclear deterrent. As a possible compromise, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the U.S. use a share a pre-existing radar facility in Azerbaijan and an additional facility in Southern Russia. Putin also suggested the system should exist within the Russia-NATO Council, with centers in Moscow and Brussels. The U.S. has thus far welcomed the proposal as a possible complement to its existing plan, but not as a substitute.
Ivanov suggested that, by turning down Russia's proposal, offensive medium range (500km) Iskander-K missiles would be placed in the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Lithuania is so far responding calmly to Ivanov's threat. Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas, Minister of Foreign Affairs Petras Vaitiekunas, and the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Justinas Karosas have stressed the threat is purely hypothetical, but that Lithuania, the EU and NATO would oppose such a move. (Article, Link)
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Czech Security Council Approves Radar Deployment
July 3, 2007 :: RIA-Novosti :: News
On July 3, the Czech Security Council approved a U.S. plan to deploy an X-Band radar facility near the town of Misov (90 kilometers southwest of Prague), according to a statement by Tomas Klvana, a Security Council spokesman, quoted by RIA Novosti. The final decision on the deployment of the radar will be made by the Czech Parliament, though domestic groups opposed to the system want a national referendum. (Article, Link)
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Putin Proposes Using Radar in Southern Russia for Missile Defense Purposes
July 2, 2007 :: Interfax :: News
During a summit at the Bush family home in Kennebunkport, Maine, Russian President Vladimir Putin expanded on his counter-proposal to the U.S. plan to build a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. "Should it prove necessary, we are ready to include not only the Gabala [radar] station [in Azerbaijan] in this system. We are ready to rebuild it, should such a need arise, and, if it proves insufficient, we are prepared to add a new radar station being built in the south of Russia in this system," he said. President Putin's offer has been welcomed by President Bush as a potential complement to his plan to base a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, but Putin has insisted it is meant as an alternative. Russia has fiercely criticized the U.S. plan for Poland and the Czech Republic which it believes erodes its strategic nuclear deterrent and influence in Europe. (Article, Link)
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Gates: U.S. to Proceed with Plans for European Site
June 15, 2007 :: New York Times :: News
While at a NATO meeting in Brussels on June 14, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates gave the U.S. response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's missile defense counter-proposal. Under the Russian proposal, interceptors would instead be based in Turkey, Iraq or aboard Aegis vessels and would share a Russian-leased radar facility in Azerbaijan.
In his response, Gates stressed that while the Azeri radar facility could enhance the current U.S. plan, it would not replace the X-Band Radar facility proposed for the Czech Republic. "I was very explicit in the meeting that we saw the Azeri radar as an additional capability, that we intended to proceed with the radar, the X-band radar, in the Czech Republic," Gates said. The X-Band Radar is designed to detect specific objects in space and to assist the interceptors destroy an adversary's missile in mid-flight. The system in Azerbaijan is an early warning radar with a wider range, but with less precise tracking capability.
At the meeting of defense ministers, Gates also effectively secured NATO's implicit endorsement for the U.S. plan. The group announced it would study how to incorporate shorter-range NATO missile defense systems with the new system to provide protection for Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey and parts of Romania-all areas that would not be covered by the U.S. plan. "The NATO road map on missile defense is now clear," said Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the NATO Secretary General. "It's practical, and it's agreed by all." In a surprising move, Gates also announced possible U.S. interest in placing additional missile defense systems in Ukraine. (Article, Link)
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National Review on Russian Intentions
June 13, 2007 :: National Review Online :: Analysis
An editorial by The National Review today examines the surprise Russian counter-proposal unveiled at the G-8 summit meeting in Germany. Russia had denounced the U.S. plan to house ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and construct a X-band radar facility in the Czech Republic, suggesting that the U.S. instead base interceptors in Turkey, Iraq or on Aegis vessels and use a pre-existing Russian radar base in Azerbaijan.
National Review suggests the U.S. approach such a proposal cautiously and verify Russia's intentions. "If it is indeed a serious offer to enhance global security against the menace of ayatollahs who brandish nuclear weapons, then it could represent a geopolitical breakthrough. Yet if it is just another Russian attempt to undermine existing missile-defense plans, it deserves to be shot down quickly." The editorial suggests that the Russian proposal may be problematic geographically. Additionally, if Russia were actually committed to preventing a ballistic missile attack from Iran, then it should halt its assistance to the regime and work with the West to keep the Iranians from gaining a nuclear weapon at all. However, if the offer to work with the U.S. is genuine, then it should be taken seriously. "Russia’s determination to block the missile-defense sites in the Czech Republic and Poland always has seemed to have more to do with exerting influence over Eastern Europe than with anybody’s security interests. ...Verify Russia's intentions, and only then begin to trust." (Article, Link)
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Western European Union Takes Stand for BMD
June 12, 2007 :: Spacewar.com :: News
The Assembly of the Western European Union, meeting in Paris last week, called for "the development of an ‘anti-missile concept.'" While the system should be driven by European interests, the system should be inter-operable with the U.S. missile defense in the general NATO framework and involve opportunities for Russian cooperation. While concerns of sparking a new arms race weighed on the assembly, the imperative to defend against the emerging threat of rogue states acquiring and using ballistic missile technology. The assembly concluded that Europe should also adopt a common position on non-proliferation, export control regimes and missile defense technology. (Article, Link)
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Friedman on Russia Using Missile Defense as a Geopolitical Lever
June 12, 2007 :: Stratfor :: Analysis
George Friedman of Stratfor analyzes Russia's past hostility to ballistic missile defense and the nature of Russian hostility to the current American plan to construct such a system in the Czech Republic and Poland. Friedman characterizes both the Russian opposition to the plan and its counter-proposal as carefully constructed steps to strain Washington-Warsaw relations and regain influence in Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union.
Historically, Russia has opposed BMD because it would destroy the concept of mutually assured destruction. Since the USSR lacked the economic and technological ability to match the U.S. if it built such a system, Soviet policy makers aggressively combated and killed Reagan's "Star Wars" plan. However, the nature of the opposition has changed. The current U.S. plan uses ten interceptors, hardly enough to diminish Russia's tremendous nuclear deterrent.
Russia has long resented NATO's eastward expansion into its former sphere of influence, but could do little to resist the trend while recovering from the fall of the USSR. "The Russians believed they had an understanding with NATO and the United States, dating back to the fall of the Soviet Union, that NATO would not be extended into Central Europe—and certainly never into the FSU." As its economy has improved, Russia is increasingly verbalizing that grudge, and pushing against that trend. Russia opposes the current missile defense plan not because of historical reasons, explains Friedman, but specifically because of missile defense:
[A]s a symbol of a Polish-U.S. alliance that transcends NATO, it is absolutely vital. The Poles wanted the missiles in their country to symbolize the link, and the Americans wanted them there for the same reason. As long as that link exists, the Poles feel secure, and as long as the Poles feel secure, they will be a thorn in the side of the Russians. The Russian goal of exerting a sphere of influence in the FSU has a broader component. Russia does not expect to regain influence in most of Central Europe— Serbia possibly excepted. It does want the Central Europeans to be sufficiently wary of the Russians as to exercise caution.
Such an alliance would embolden Warsaw and Washington to furthur engage in pro-Western agitation, especially in Ukraine. "Of all of the former European satellites, Poland has been the most openly anti-Russian and the most active in supporting forces in the FSU that also are resisting Russian resurgence."
After feigning outrage over the U.S. plan for months, Russia abruptly changed face and issued a counter-proposal at the G-8 meeting that would place the U.S.'s missiles in Iraq or Turkey and use a pre-existing Russian radar facility in Azerbaijan instead. The proposal masterfully portrays Russia as cooperative and flexible, while leaving the U.S. in a difficult position. Despite the fact that the radar facility is far too close to Iran and the Middle East to prove as efficient as the current plan, "by rejecting the proposal, Washington would look hostile and uncompromising. Accepting it would mean basing the missiles near the Iranian border, possibly too close to intercept long-range missiles fired from there. Using Russian radar—which currently is insufficient for U.S. needs—would make the entire system dependent on Russian cooperation. And pulling the system from Poland would be a signal to Central Europe that military agreements with the United States are subject to negotiation with the Russians. That, of course, is exactly the signal Putin wants sent." Friedman concludes, "The Russians now have very little to lose and quite a bit to gain from confrontation." (Article, Link)
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Coyle on the European Missile Shield
June 8, 2007 :: Analysis
The Tehran Times carries Philip Coyle's response to a surprise proposal concerning European missile defense by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-8 summit in Germany. Philip Coyle is a Senior Advisor to the Center for Defense Information and a former assistant secretary of defense.
Russia's compromise to the U.S. plan to base an X-band radar facility in the Czech Republic was to use a pre-existing radar facility in Azerbaijan. Coyle argues the Azeri site would be advantageous:
At that location, the proposed missile defenses can 'defend' all of Europe, including South Eastern Europe. The Poland/Czech Republic arrangement cannot 'cover' all of Europe. Also a radar at the Azerbaijan site cannot 'see' Russian missile launches going over the pole towards America, which means that it cannot be used to defend America from Russia.
Coyle concludes that "if Russia is not an enemy, as President Bush says, he should be willing to seriously consider this proposal. Ever since President Reagan, the U.S. has been saying it wants to cooperate with Russia on missile defense and then it doesn't happen. Maybe this time it will." (Article, Link)
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Poland: U.S. Missile Shield Must Protect All NATO Members
June 7, 2007 :: Voice of America :: News
Polish President Lech Kaczynski said today that any missile defense system in Europe should be able to defend all 26 members of NATO. The current U.S. plan, which would house ten missile interceptors in Poland, would not cover parts of Romania and NATO members Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria. President Kaczynski has been generally supportive of the U.S. plan, and today said his country would soon announce whether it would house the missiles. (Article, Link)
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Gorbachev to U.S.: "Let's Not Repeat Cold War"
June 6, 2007 :: CNN :: News
Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev (1985-1991) spoke from Moscow that a U.S. plan to install missile interceptors and a radar facility in Eastern Europe could reignite old Cold War feuds. "We are being drawn into another arms race," he said. Gorbachev believed the Bush administration once again believed militarization to be the answer, when that philosophy should have been discredited by U.S. foreign policy faliures. Gorbachev also discussed Russian democratization and the need to prevent Iran from getting a bomb. (Article, Link)
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