February 22, 2008 :: The Wall Street Journal :: Analysis
Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, analyzest the Chinese and Russian draft treaty aimed at banning weapons in space in the February 22 edition of the Wall Street Journal. Tellis argues that the treaty would in fact
neither effectively prohibit their deployment, nor conclusively annul the threat of force against space objects. It would only produce the illusion of security, while doing nothing to eliminate the counterspace capabilities currently present in many countries, especially China.
The principal problem is the treaty addresses weapons in space (of which there are none), as opposed to land- and sea-based kinetic, directed-energy and electromagnetic attack systems. However, even a retooled treaty to expand arms control regulation for these systems would miss the mark as "counterspace weapons are impossible to identify by national technical means, or even by intrusive inspections." An outright ban on these weapons would be unlikely given political considerations, and a treaty that allowed the development and deployment of these weapons but not their use would be open to abuse. Tellis argues that China and Russia support the draft treaty because of three political and strategic reasons.
First, they genuinely fear an imminent American deployment of space weapons—perhaps in connection with missile defense— and want a treaty to impede that deployment...Second, a space security treaty allows Russia and China to engage in some eye-catching histrionics. It enables them to dominate international public diplomacy and paint the U.S. as the irresponsible driver of a new arms race... Third, the Russian-Chinese draft treaty remains a splendid way for Beijing to draw international attention away from its own growing counterspace program—even as it enables Russia to assuage its own discomfort with China's space-denial capabilities.
Tellis concludes that the Bush administration is correct to reject this treaty, and encourages any new presidential administration to do the same.
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