February 5, 2010 :: Department of Defense :: Analysis
Part 2 of 3:
(Part 1; Part 3)
Homeland
The report discusses in some detail the current and planned deployments of U.S. missile defense, both at home and abroad. At home, the U.S. will field a total of 30 ground-based interceptors, with 26 in Alaska at Fort Greely and four in California at Vandenberg Air Force Base. (This is a reduction from Defense's original goal of 44.) As a matter of strategy, the position from earlier in the report is reinforced: the U.S. will maintain its slight advantage over the possibility of a yet-to-materialize long-range threat from North Korea or Iran, but will not seek to address missile defense imbalances against long-range threats from the likes of China or Russia.
While the ambitions of the homeland GMD program will remain modest from an interceptor standpoint, Defense will seek to fund some "system enhancements." These will consist of a project called RAM, intended to bolster "reliability, availability, and maintainability;" "a program to guard against ground system obsolescence;" and the "funding to restart the Future Avionics Upgrade/Obsolescence Program." Most importantly, perhaps, is the plan to fund an intercept test of an "ICBM-class target" and a "salvo test." A "salvo" test would be a multiple-target test that would seek to mimic likely real-world adversarial efforts to throw many missiles at a target in order to defeat BMD efforts.
The Missile Defense Agency will also continue development of new interceptors, including the SM-3 Block IIB, an advanced iteration of current regional missile defenses which should provide "some capability to intercept long-range missiles." MDA will also continue to develop a more advanced "two-stage ground-based interceptor," and will seek to enhance detection capabilities, both from the air and from space. Finally, Missile Field 2 at Fort Greely will be completed, providing a possible surge capability of an additional eight interceptors to meet future contingencies.
Regional
The Defense department admits that our current regional BMD deployments are "modest" when put beside the constantly advancing threat. To meet this deficiency, Defense plans to "increase the procurement of proven systems such as THAAD, the SM-3 interceptor, and the AN/TPY-2 [or "X-band"] radar." As stage two of this process, the Defense department and MDA will continue to develop and field more regional BMD. A land-based SM-3 interceptor, currently being called "Aegis Ashore," is in the works, and is planned to be operable in the "2015 time frame."
Planned upgrades to the SM-3 interceptors will include the Block IB ("by 2015"), which will have more advanced seeking, guidance, and flight-control systems than the current Block IA; the SM-3 Block IIA (scheduled to come online "toward the end of the decade"), will be faster and have further upgraded seeking capabilities; and the SM-3 Block IIB—now in the first stages of conception and development and thus still a long-time coming—is planned to have an improved kill warhead and an advanced third boost stage that will enable it to intercept long-range ICBMs.
Planned sensor and detection advancements will provide a wider area of coverage and will boost regional missile defense efficacy. The use of remote sensor data (either from aerial drones or from space) will lengthen the reach of regional missile defenses as they will not be as dependent on the physical location of Aegis ships and their individual radar footprints. Interceptors from ships or from Aegis Ashore mobile ground-emplacements will have an early launch capability, as the remote sensors guide the interceptor until the incoming missile enters the radar area of missile destroyers or THAAD emplacements. Part of this effort is being called "Early Intercept."
The report admits that the ballistic missile threat is likely to outstrip deployment availability for some time to come. The ability of the U.S. to meet this regional threat will in large part depend on the pace at which these regional BMD enhancements are put in place and their maneuverability. This means that the organizational and command structure put in place will be critical, along with our ability to integrate systems with BMD installments in territory held by allies in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. (Article)
