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Quiet Deal with Denmark Allows for Missile Defense Tech Transfer

Denmark Defense Minister Soeren Gade and the U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld are reported to have quietly signed a missile defense framework this past month. The agreement would allow for the transfer of some missile defense technology to the Danish government, which would allow Denmark to develop or perhaps purchase defenses. The signing took place at the Pentagon on October 26, according to the website for Denmark’s ministry of foreign affairs. The news of the agreement seems to have evaded American media entirely. (Article, Link) 

» U.S. and Denmark to sign deal for upgrading Greenland radars on August 6, 2004

» BBC Monitoring: Danish radio summarizes missile defense deal

» More stories on: Allies

Interfax on Topol-M Capabilities, Deployment Schedule

Interfax carries a story about the Russian Topol-M ballistic missile. The news service quotes the head of the Strategic Missile Troops, Colonel General Nikolai Solovtsov, as saying that the switchover to Topol-M land-based mobile missile complexes will begin in early in 2006.
        This particular Interfax report is significant, however, not for confirming readiness of certain facilities for further deployment, but for repeating the claims of electromagnetic shielding and adding details about the maneuverability of the Topol-M which previously have not been reported:

Topol-M is a unique missile complex adapted to advanced missile defense systems. It is more mobile than other missile systems and is better protected from the enemy’s reconnaissance.

It weights 47.2 tonnes and is capable of carrying a combat payload of 1,200 kilograms. Its range exceeds 10,000 kilometers. Three engines allow it to develop speed much faster than the previous types of missiles. Several dozen additional engines and control gear make its flight unpredictable for the enemy. Topol-M’s designers claim the system is absolutely immune to electromagnetic impulses.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6

Russia-Belarus Air Defense to be Integrated as One

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced that his department would be submitting a document to the government for the creation of a single regional air defense system between Russia and Belarus Union, reported RIA-Novosti on October 19. “The document, which specifies how the system will function, is passing through bureaucratic procedures,” said Ivanov, adding that Russia would soon be supplying Belarus with S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to build up the common regional air defense system.
        On October 13, the Belarusian Defense Ministry told Interfax that the Belarusian military already receives data from the Russian radar situated in Hantsavichy in Brest Region, information sharing which is critical to the launch of interceptors against an aircraft or missile attack:

“The radar is designed to provide a missile attack early warning and monitor missile launches, possibly threatening Belarus. That is why data fed by the Russian radar is of paramount importance to Belarus,” an official said.

According to him, information support is one of the conditions for Russian military facilities’ presence in Belarus.

Among other conditions, Belarusian air defense units have been granted the right to conduct live firing exercises at Russian firing ranges. Belarusian units conduct such exercises on a regular basis at the Ashuluk firing range in Astrakhan Region, and other Russian proving grounds. Up to 10 battalions conduct live firing exercises on an annual basis. The Russian side provides systems, firing ranges and targets to this end.

At the present time Belarus accommodates the Uzel Baranavichy early warning radar in Hantsavichy, and the Russian navy command and control post, situated near the town of Vileyka.

 (Article, Link) 

» Interfax on Belarus-Russian Data sharing for joint air defenses

» More stories on: Former Soviet Republics, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

Russia Tests SS-19 ICBM from Baikonur

On October 20, Russia launched another ICBM in its recent string of missile tests, this time an SS-19 (RS-18) “Stiletto” missile. The silo-based SS-19 was launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, and its warhead traveled eastward to hit its designated target at the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka peninsula some 25 minutes and 6,000km later, according to a statement by Russian Space Forces Col. Alexei Kuznetsov, who added, notes Itar Tass, that “the launch tested the missile’s tactical and technical characteristics, as well as its performance after being on standby for 25 years.” He also added that the missile “was launched from a silo at site No 175 of the southern spaceport.” This was the first test of an SS-19 in 2005, and it would have been the SS-19 Mod 2; the SS-19 mod 1 was replaced in 1983.
Itar Tass continues:

According to mass media reports, the Strategic Missile Troops are now equipped with 160 Stilet [sic] missiles, each carrying six warheads. The RS-18 missile is one of Russia’s most sophisticated intercontinental missiles. The launches performed in the past few years proved its reliability and made it possible to extend its service life by 20 years.

The RS-18 missiles that have been withdrawn from the combat component of the Strategic Missile Troops are currently being converted into Rokot launch vehicles at the Khrunichev state scientific and production space centre. There have been seven launches of Rokot launch vehicles since 2000, of which six were successful. The launch of this type of rocket with the European Cryosat research satellite on board on 8 October proved to be a failure.

 (Article, Link) 

» Longer Itar-Tass report on test, available through BBC Monitoring

» Interfax on test

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-21 B

» Missile system details for: Baikonur Cosmodrome

Troops to Get S-400 Missiles in Early 2006

Interfax-Military news agency reports that Russian servicemen will have the new S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile interceptor system by early 2006, quoting a source in the Defense Ministry.

“Servicemen will take theoretical training in control over the system before the end of the year, while practical exercises will begin in the first quarter of 2006, when the S-400 enters the inventory,” the source said.

A regiment of the first corps of the Special-Purpose Command hosted a rally on Monday that marked the beginning of the retraining process. Personnel of the regiment will be trained by teachers of the Tver-based Konstantin Zhukov Air Defense Academy and defense industry experts, the source noted.

The rally was attended by Col-Gen Boris Cheltsov, air force chief of staff, and Col-Gen Yuriy Solovyev, commander of the Special-Purpose Command, as well as defense industry representatives.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

Kyodo: China Testing SRBMs at Pace of 100 Per Year

Japan’s Kyodo news service reports that beginning two years ago China has been testing short range ballistic missiles at a rate of about one hundred per year. The tests of missiles with ranges up to 600 km are said to take place from inland bases. The report comes in conjunction with the visit by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to the headquarters of the Second Artillery, which commands China’s ballistic missiles.
       This news report is significant, but it leaves unclear the relation of such a number of tests to the number of missiles produced each year, and the number operationally deployed near Taiwan. The 2005 report by the Pentagon on the military capabilities of the People’s Republic of China noted that China is deploying an additional “75 to 125” short range missiles within range of Taiwan each year, and that the current number was estimated at between 650 and 730. Depending on how one interprets the relation between these reports, China could be producing some 175-225 short range missiles per year (around 100 to satisfy the testing replacement rate plus 75-125 to increase the number deployed). (Article, Link) 

» Kyodo report through BBC Monitoring

» October 19, 2005: Washington Times on Rumsfeld visit

» 2005 Pentagon Report on Chinese Military Power

» More stories on: China, Taiwan, Testing - Foreign

South Korea Considering Boosting Budget to Invest in Missile Defense Systems

The Seoul Times reports that South Korean plans to raise its defense budget by 11% to improve its defense capability, which includes purchasing missile defense systems including Patriot interceptors, Aegis destroyers, and even “multi-function satellites.” The relative buildup is a response to the planned downsizing of the U.S. presence on the peninsula in 2008.
        Maj. Gen. Bang Hyo-Bok, a policy planning officer at the Defense Ministry, was quoted by the Yonhap News Agency as saying that “We’re pushing for President Roh Moo-Hyun’s cooperative self-defense’ system…In terms of the war deterrence effect, we’ll be laying the groundwork for South Korea to take the initiative in defending the Korean Peninsula.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, South Korea

Senate Committee Calls for Ship-Launched Threat Report

The Senate Appropriations Committee recently asked the Defense Intelligence Agency to prepare a report on possible attacks by terrorists from ship-launched ballistic missiles, according to the October 12 edition of Inside Missile Defense. The request is said to be for a “recommendation for the nearest-term, lowest-cost solution to the threat described in the intelligence report.” The report is said to be due no later than March 1, 2006. (Link) 

» More stories on: Policy, Ship-Launched Threat

Russia Tests Target Missile Based on S-25

Interfax reports that Russia has completed a three month period of testing for a “new” target missile called “Strizh-4,” which is said to be built on the basis of the older S-25 (SA-1 “Guild”) anti-aircraft/missile defense interceptor. The purpose for which the Strizh-4 would serve as a target was not given. Presumably, it could serve as a testing target for Russia S-300 or S-400 air and missile defense interceptors. There are apparently two versions of the missile, for both low and high altitudes.

“The tests were conducted for three months at one of the ranges. The tests fully confirmed the missile’s declared specifications, and this was noted in the act drawn up after the tests,” a source in the defence industry complex told Interfax-AVN on Monday [17 October].

Now that the state tests have been completed successfully, a series production of the target missile can be launched and it can be used to test new anti-aircraft missile systems and air-defense artillery systems, the source said.

According to the source, “four launches were made during the state tests - two launches of the target missile designed to fly at high altitudes and two launches of the low-altitude version of the target missile”.

The Strizh-4 target missile is fitted with onboard equipment which includes a radar system designed to establish the parameters of engagement with an anti-aircraft guided missile, photosensitive elements to determine ammunition activation time, and fragmentation sensors. All data is transmitted to the ground and then deciphered.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: S-25 (SA-1 Guild)

Japan Base Could Host U.S. Forward Deployed X-Band Radar

Japan may allow the United States to deploy the new FBX mobile radar on its territory, according to Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun. The deployment of such radar on Japanese territory for the potential use of defending against a missile attack on the United States is controversial because some see it as violating the Japanese constitution and the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty.
        The deployment is important, however, for the detection and tracking capabilities of the more advanced and longer-range X-band radar. Such detection would be important to a missile attack launched from within the Eurasian continent against either Japan or the United States. From Asahi Shimbun:

The primary candidate site for the radar system is the Air Self-Defense Force’s Shariki air station in Tsugaru, Aomori Prefecture, Japanese government sources said.

They said the radar system being considered is a U.S-developed X-band radar that is more advanced than the system Japan is scheduled to install in fiscal 2008 to guard against medium-range ballistic missiles.

The X-band radar has a longer detection range, enabling it to respond to ballistic missiles launched from deep within a continent, and is also capable of differentiating missile shapes.

The United States successfully completed an experiment in September in which the X-band radar distinguished between decoy and ballistic missiles.

Plans call for the deployment of one X-band radar system in the current fiscal year.

In talks in the summer of 2004 concerning the realignment of U.S. military forces in Japan, American officials formally proposed the deployment of the X-band radar in Japan to protect the United States from ballistic missile attacks. …

The Shariki air station is being considered a candidate site because it is located in an area capable of detecting missiles North Korea may launch at the United States.

Although the United States would likely share in the usage of Shariki air station, no specific date has been set for deployment of the radar system.

Japan and the United States have already reached an agreement in principle to move the ASDF’s Air Defense Command from Tokyo’s Fuchu to the U.S. military’s Yokota Air Base as part of plans to implement a joint missile defense system.

The plans call for establishing a joint tactical center at Yokota where the Air Defense Command could share information with the 5th Air Force of the United States based at Yokota.

        The alleged capabilities of the FBX-T to track missiles launched from “deep within” the continent could plausibly be integrated into a system of interceptors capable of defending against Chinese missiles.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Japan, Detection and Tracking

» Missile system details for: Forward-Based X-Band Radar-Transportable

PACOM Head: Taiwan Should Upgrade Defenses

Admiral William Fallon, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, gave a speech urging Taiwan to upgrade its capabilities and to focus on defensive systems which could help deter an invasion, such as the sort of thing the island nation would face from China. Fallon named as important Taiwan’s upgrading of its Patriot anti-missile defense batteries, and the purchase of such weapons as mines to deter an amphibious assault by China. An excerpt from the Associated Press:

“As I take stock of the situation and have had an assessment of where we stand, it seems to me there are some things that would be much more useful than others in helping Taiwan better prepare its defenses,” Fallon said. Examples of steps Taiwan could take include upgrading the Patriot anti-missile systems it already has and buying airplane-mounted missiles that could shoot down invading aircraft, he said. Taiwan also could buy sea mines to protect the island’s beaches from an amphibious assault, he said. Fallon said he brought up the subject with Taiwanese military officials several months ago.

        The sort of defensive weapons Fallon urged are less expensive than the eight diesel-electric submarines and four Kidd-class destroyers which have been offered and for which purchases have been delayed.

He noted Taiwan’s defense spending has been dropping as a percentage of its gross domestic product even as China spent heavily to modernize and upgrade its military. “If these trend lines continue, there is a clear gap and a potential to have a significant imbalance which might not be useful for long-term stability,” Fallon said.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Taiwan

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Reports: Russia Aiding Iran’s Advanced Missile Programs

The London Telegraph carried a front page story which has since become rather controversial, repeating reports that Russia has actively aiding Iran’s ballistic missile programs, supplying them with production facilities, diagrams, and operating instructions. Some aid is also said to have come from North Korea, via Russians, from the North Korean missile program which are said to be based on the Soviet/Russian SS-N-6 missile. The story comes as Condoleezza Rice met with Russian officials about that country’s aid to Iran’s nuclear program. From the Telegraph:

The Russians are acting as go-betweens with North Korea as part of a multi-million pound deal they negotiated between Teheran and Pyongyang in 2003. It has enabled Teheran to receive regular clandestine shipments of top secret missile technology, believed to be channeled through Russia.

Western intelligence officials believe that the technology will enable Iran to complete development of a missile with a range of 2,200 miles, capable of hitting much of Europe. It is designed to carry a 1.2-ton payload, sufficient for a basic nuclear device.

The revelation raises the stakes in the confrontation between Iran’s Islamic regime and the West - led by the United States and European countries including Britain.

…Iran’s longest-range missile is the Shahab 3, which, with an 800-mile range, could hit Israel. The North Korean deal will allow the Iranian missile to reach targets far into Europe - including Rome, Berlin, and much of France.

North Korea has developed a missile, the Taepo Dong 2, that could reach America’s west coast, based on the submarine-launched Soviet SSN6. Modifications allow it to be fired from a land-based transporter and this technology is being smuggled to Teheran with Russian help.

Russians have provided production facilities, diagrams and operating instruction so the missile can be built in Iran. Liquid propellant has been shipped to Iran. Russian specialists have also been sent to Iran to help development of its Shahab 5 missile project, which the Iranians hope to have operational by the end of the decade.

        Such reports about Russian proliferation to Iran are, however, nothing new, and the sensation generated is probably as much due to the timing than the substance.
        Russian news agencies Interfax and RIA-Novosti reported Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov calling the Telegraph report “delirium, nonsense,” and saying Russia aims “to observe scrupulously the non-proliferation regime.”  (More »»») 

» Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov denies

» Parliament member Kosachev denies

» Pravda: experts differ on Iran missile proliferation connection

» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation, Russia

Bulava Footage Shown on Russian Television; Exotic Claims Again Touted

Russian state television has aired footage from the first test flight of the new Bulava ballistic missile, which test took place on September 27. The footage was apparently displayed on weekly current affairs program “Vesti Nedeli” on October 9.

“Here are declassified pictures of the first real firing of the brand new Bulava missile,” the presenter announced. He went on to explain how three rocket stages take the missile to a certain point where individually targeted warheads separate along with dozens of decoy warheads. Viewers were told that the Bulava is “virtually impossible to intercept, and is faster than all other equivalent missiles.”

The edition of Vesti Nedeli on the 2 October had quoted a senior naval commander, Adm Mikhail Zakharenko, the man in charge of the Bulava project, as saying that footage of the firing was being kept secret because of the missile’s uniqueness.

         A word should be said here about the steady stream of reports—coming from President Putin to Sergey Ivanov all the way down—that Russia has supposedly devised new and “invulnerable” strategic systems which have been said to be deployed on the new Topol-M and Bulava missiles. One should take these reports seriously, and if new strategic weapons have been devised, we should consider what sort of strategic defenses are necessary to counter them.
        At the same time, the Russian government may be exaggerating the capabilities of the new missiles and the payloads they deliver, especially by claiming that they are invulnerable to every conceivable missile defense. One purpose for such exaggeration would be to impair public or political support for missile defense programs here in the United States. If we may be made to think that missile defense is a technical implausibility, or at least that offensive systems have an inherent technological superiority to defensive ones, we may not pursue necessary defenses as aggressively or ambitiously as we should.
        It is important to note, however, that all of the admittedly limited descriptions given of the Bulava and Topol-M capabilities suggest only midcourse or terminal phase maneuvering. Both missiles are still in their essence ballistic missiles, rather than cruise missiles, and as such remain quite vulnerable in what has always been the most vulnerable phase for ballistic missiles, the boost phase. During the boost phase, no release of countermeasures or exotic maneuvering (hypersonic or otherwise) is physically possible.
        It is plausible that the new Russian ballistic missiles—and indeed, even older Russian missiles—are capable of evading the sort of ground-based midcourse defenses such as those being deployed in Alaska and California. In this sense, the Russian claims may be true—insofar as they are applied to the systems currently being pursued. But it remains quite doubtful that any ballistic missile could avoid boost phase defenses, were the United States to again pursue these seriously. The relative ease with which midcourse and terminal phase defenses can be overcome points to the importance of destroying missiles in their boost phase. Loose claims by Russia must not be interpreted as an excuse to abandon the pursuit of robust defenses.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Maneuverable Warheads, Russia

» Missile details: SS-26

Overall Status and Numbers of Russian Forces

Russianforces.org reports on the recent START exchange data supplied by Russia on its ballistic missiles still in service:

In October 2005 the Russian strategic forces included 815 strategic delivery platforms, which can carry up to 3479 nuclear warheads.

[The] Strategic Rocket Forces have 545 operational missile systems that include missiles that can carry 1955 warheads. These include 85 R-36MUTTH and R-36M2 (SS-18) missiles, 129 UR-100NUTTH (SS-19) missiles, 291 road-mobile Topol (SS-25) systems, and 40 silo-based Topol-M (SS-27) systems.

        There are, besides these, a number of sea-based missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Russia

» Missile details: SS-19 Mod 2, SS-20, SS-21 B, SS-N-5, SS-N-6

Hackett on the Senate’s Review of Missile Defense

Roughly one year after the first interceptors of the ground-based missile defense system were placed into their silos, the Senate Appropriations Committee has completed an important review of missile defense expenditures and goals, and the appropriations bill has now moved onto the House. James Hackett writes in the Washington Times summarizing the progress made in missile defense over the past several years, and what remains to be done.
        Hackett notes in particular, and with just praise, the Senate Committee’s support and additional funding for completing the GMD midcourse interceptor program begun in Alaska and California, their additional funding of the Airborne Laser, and also of the relative cutbacks for the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI), a ground-based boost defense system whose worthy aim to destroy a missile in its boost phase requires that the interceptor be placed quite near the enemy missile’s launch site. The pursuit of faster interceptors is a laudable technological pursuit, as is boost-phase intercept—but land-basing raises too high the standard of being in the right place at the right time for the interceptor to be practical or widely useful. Writes Hackett, “Many think this an infeasible chimera that would waste resources needed to complete and improve more practical defenses.”
        Hackett concludes that “the House should accept the Senate’s missile defense changes.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Budget, Policy

Japan to Deploy Additional 18 Patriots by 2011

Japan will deploy some eighteen Patriot Missiles around the country by 2011, reports the Kyodo news service, citing the Japanese Defense Agency. “It is desirable to put PAC-3s in place at all of our 24 air defense artilleries nationwide. We need more than 30 PAC-3s to defend the entire airspace of Japan,” Kyodo quotes a senior official at the Air Self-Defense Force as saying. The official added that Japan needs more than thirty to defend the nation from limited, short range attacks. According to Kyodo, the additional deployment of eighteen PAC-3s will bring the count to 32, implying that Japan already has some fourteen interceptors. Whether these fourteen are all PAC-3s or if the number includes some less-advanced PAC-2 interceptors is not clarified.
        The Japanese are able to develop the additional Patriot interceptors because of an agreement reached with the United States in March which gives Japan a license to do so.
        Also left unclear from the reports is whether the numbers refer to the missiles themselves or, as seems more likely, to batteries of missiles. To spread thirty-two missiles over twenty four locations would mean many air bases would have only a single interceptor—not much of a defense.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Japan

Russia Scraps Rail Launcher, Eighth This Year

Russia is destroying another railway-based mobile missile launcher, the eighth rail launch pad destroyed this year, reports Interfax. The scrapping of the launcher is taking place this week at the Strategic Missile Troops’ central workshop in Bryansk. Colonel-General Nikolay Solovtsov was quoted by Interfax-Military News Agency as saying that all rail launchers would be destroyed: “We cannot prolong service lives indefinitely. So, to our regret, we have to say goodbye to the rail-based missile launchpad.” A ninth launcher is set to be destroyed later this year. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Russia Tests SS-N-23 SLBM

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that it tested on early Saturday morning another submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missile, identified by Itar Tass as a RSM-54 “Volna” missile. The RSM-54 designation refers to what is known as SS-N-23 in Western classification. R-29RM is another designation for the same missile.
        The test is the third within eleven days. The missile was fired from the submerged Borisoglebsk submarine in the Barents Sea, which is in the Arctic Ocean near Norway and Northern Russia. The missile’s warhead traveled eastward some 6,000 miles to the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The Defense Ministry said that the test “is the sixth sea-based ICBM launch this year,” and added that another land-based silo test launch will take place later this month from the Baikonur cosmodrome.  (Article, Link) 

» RIA Novosti on RSM-54 test

» Xinhua on missile test

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-X-14

Baluyevsky: Bulava Intended for Land and Sea Basing

The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Yuri Baluyevsky, said today in Kaliningrad that the SS-N-30 Bulava ballistic missile, recently tested on September 27, is intended to ultimately be interoperable, capable of being launched from either sea or land, reports Itar-Tass. Previously, the Bulava has only been discussed as a sea-launched system—specifically, the sea-launched version of the SS-27 Topol-M missile. Excerpt from Itar Tass:

“The intention is that the state-of-the-art Bulava missile system should eventually be standardized, capable of being used either at sea or on land,” Baluyevsky said. The army general did specify how many systems would come into service in the near future. “Of course, we in the military—both ground forces and the navy—would like to have many up-to-date weapons. But we appreciate that the country also has other problems which require large financial resources,” Baluyevsky noted.

At the same time the CGS emphasized that in the new state defense program which “is being drafted and will be submitted to the president in the first half of 2006, procurement of armaments and military hardware is, effectively, being increased by 50 per cent.” “The state defense order for 2006 is the start of our progress towards the formation of this new state program,” Baluyevsky stressed.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-26

Technical Data on Bulava Released; Differs from Topol-M

A site maintained by Pavel Podvig, author of Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, has acquired hitherto unreleased technical data on the new Bulava ballistic missile, and has compared it side by side with the Topol-M missile. Russian sources had previously said the two missiles were quite similar, that the Bulava was the sea-launched version of the Topol-M. The information released, which comes from START exchange data, suggests that they are a bit more different. As noted by Russianforces.org, “In reality [the Bulava] is about a third shorter and quite a bit ‘stockier.’ …The missile, which was designated RSM-56 for the purposes of the [START] treaty, is quite compact—its launch weight is about 37 tonnes, its length is about 12 meters.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-26