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Taiwan Official: 820 Chinese Missiles, 20,000 Troops Killed

A Chinese ballistic missile attack could kill some 20,000 Taiwanese troops, according to Taiwan’s Vice Defense Minister Chu Kai-sheng. Speaking at a session of the Legislative Yuan on Wednesday, Chu quoted an estimate made in a Hankuang drill that if the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fired ballistic missiles at Taiwan in five consecutive ways, which would take about half a day, between 20,000 and 30,000 Taiwanese armed forces personnel would be killed or wounded. At present, China is said to have some 820 ballistic missiles (excluding cruise missiles) aimed at Taiwan.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, China, Taiwan

Iran to Test Shahab-2 as “Friendship Message” to Neighbors

Iran plans to carry out military wargames in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, including a test of the Shahab-2 ballistic missile. Rear-Admiral Morteza Saffari, commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, recently stated that the “Noble Prophet” military exercise will be held from March 31 through April 6, and will take place 40 km from the Iranian coast. The wargames will begin with the firing of a Shahab-2 as a “peace and friendship message” to the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman littoral states. Over 1,500 military and privately-owned vessels will take part in the exercise, as well as fighter-bombers, logistics aircraft, and helicopters. Saffari noted that IRGC Navy’s objectives include “preparing the armed forces to defend the independence and territorial integrity” and “resisting the enemy’s psychological warfare.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

Chinese Version of Patriot Interceptor Said Undergoing Tests

China recently tested a new surface-to-air missile in northwest China, which is said to be similar in capacity to the American Patriot interceptor. South Korea’s Dong-A Ilbo cites a recent bulletin from the People’s Liberation Army stating that the test involved the detection and downing of both a reconnaissance drone and an incoming ballistic missile by an interceptor “similar to the U.S. Patriot missile.” According to the Chinese launch commander, “This marks the official launch of the interceptor missile unit. We can intercept not only high-flying reconnaissance planes or missiles but also low-flying targets. Our accuracy is significantly high as well.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Chinese Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

DSB Report: Missile Scientists in Short Supply

The Pentagon risks running out of scientists and engineers to operate and upgrade long-range missile technology, according to a report released this week by the Defense Science Board. A task force of five outside missile experts spent two years preparing the report. According to their results, approximately 20,000 research and development scientists and engineers work in the aerospace industry as a whole, down from over 140,000 in the mid-1980s. The decline reflects the fact that veteran engineers and scientists are retiring at a high rate, and fewer young engineers and scientists are choosing to work on missile technology. Each year about 70,000 Americans receive undergraduate and graduate science and engineering degrees that are defense related, compared to a combined 200,000 in China and India. The report recommends that the Pentagon pay higher salaries and offer incentives to attract more experts into the strategic missile field, or risk losing much of its expertise in long-range missile technology. (Article, Link) 

» Defense Science Board Report on Future Strategic Strike Skills

» More stories on: Policy, Resources

Hackett on Missile Defense 23 Years After Reagan’s SDI Speech

James T. Hackett summarizes the state of U.S. ballistic missile defense in The Washington Times, 23 years to the day after President Regan initiated the Strategic Defense Initiative. Although the need to protect the nation against nuclear missiles has taken a back seat to the fight against Al-Qaeda and military operations in Iraq, the need for missile defense is as strong as ever. Iran, North Korea, and China all represent substantial threats, as well as terrorist organizations such as those operating inside Pakistan. Yet Hackett notes the U.S. is moving forward with its deployment and development projects, most notably the ground-based midcourse defense deployed in Alaska and California, as well as the Aegis sea-based defense. Moreover, he notes that BMD is on the rise worldwide: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Israel, Turkey, India, Kuwait and other Persian Gulf sheikdoms have or plan to obtain missile defenses. Thus, “the effort Ronald Reagan started is now beginning to defend the country.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

Pakistan Tests Hatf-7 Cruise Missile for Second Time

Pakistan on Tuesday test-launched its nuclear-capable Haft-7 Babur cruise missile for the second time. According to a statement from the Pakistani army, “All phases of the planned trajectory were extremely successful and the missile impacted with pinpoint accuracy.” Reports indicate that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf witnessed the launch and congratulated the scientists involved. India was not given advanced warning of the test.
        The terrain-hugging Haft-7 missile has a range of 500 kilometers (310 miles) and is capable of carrying nuclear, chemical, biological, or conventional warheads. The indigenously developed missile, named after an ancient Mughal emperor, was first tested in August 2005.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Cruise Missiles, Pakistan, Testing - Foreign

MDAA Polls New York Residents

Seventy percent of those living in New York State favor the deployment of a national missile defense system to protect against nuclear, chemical, or biological attack. The results come from a new poll commissioned by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. The poll also determined that 80 percent of New Yorkers believe that New York City will be a likely target for a missile attack by countries or terrorist groups in future years. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Lockheed Working on Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV)

Lockheed Martin has completed the first kill vehicle pathfinder seeker for MDA’s Multiple Kill Vehicle System. Using what is known as the many-on-many strategy, the Multiple Kill Vehicle system deploys several exoatmospheric kill vehicles from each interceptor missile (as opposed to the previous designs which include only one EKV), which are then able to destroy the enemy missile itself as well as any countermeasures. The many-on-many approach is said to reduce the need for extensive pre-launch intelligence, and allows the BMD system to use its resources with greater discrimination and less waste. In the current stage of testing, Lockheed Martin has created a “vibration environment” similar to the one the Multiple Kill Vehicle will experience while performing its mission. (Link) 

» Missile system details for: Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV)

Britain’s Politics of Trident Replacement

Richard Norton-Taylor, writing in The Guardian, discusses the politics surrounding the debate over whether Britain should replace its Trident missile system. The British government has promised an “open debate” on the issue, yet has rejected requests under the Freedom of Information Act to disclose studies on the costs involved. It has also argued that it is not in the public interest to publish official assessments about what threats the Trident missiles could deter. To complicate matters, the Ministry of Defense is currently refusing to appear before a Commons inquiry into the matter.
        Sir Michael Quinlan, a former permanent secretary at the MoD in the 1980s and 1990s, recently appeared before the Commons Defense Committee, stating his view that the cost of maintaining the Trident missiles was “simply too much to pay.” However, Quinlin noted that it would be “very difficult” politically for any government to abandon Britain’s nuclear weapons as long as France had them. “To leave the French as the only people with this, I think, would twitch a lot of very fundamental historical nerves,” he said. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

» Missile details: Trident C-4

Admiral: U.S. Monitored North Korean Launch of Three Missiles

The U.S. knew in advance about North Korea’s plan to launch three short-range surface-to-surface missiles on March 8, and was able to quickly confirm the actual launch, reports Timothy Keating, commander of the U.S. Northern Command, who testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 14.
        Sources indicate that the three North Korean missiles tested were of modest range and capbility, with ranges of approximately 120 kilometers, which could however reach the South Korean city of Pyongtaek where U.S. military installations are located.
        Last week, General Burwell Bell, head of U.S. forces in Korea, said the launch demonstrated that North Korea has made a “quantum leap forward” in its technology, having greatly improved accuracy and mobility.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Testing - Foreign

Test of Kinetic Energy Interceptor Program

Northrop Grumman successfully completed the first of two FY 2006 tests of the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) battle management capability, known as the KEI Fire Control and Communications (KFC/C) system. The test was intended to verify that the system could meet the timelines and accuracy requirements necessary to engage and shoot down a target missile in its boost phase.
        In the first test, which occurred on March 1, the team demonstrated that the KFC/C could forward sensor data received from multiple global satellite constellations to a deployed KEI battery. The next test will attempt to integrate the KEI sensors with external radar assets.
        The KEI is a mobile ground-based missile defense system that is being designed to destroy enemy missiles during their boost and early-midcourse phases.  (Link) 

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

Russia’s Strategic Missile Troops Holding War Game

Russia’s Strategic Missile Troops are conducting wargames that include the deployment of mobile ground-based missile systems, according to Russian news sources. Over 2,000 troops and 400 pieces of equipment are taking part in the exercise, which will include the deployment of SS-25 Sickle missile systems and SS-18 Satan heavy missiles. According to the SMT, the purpose of the exercise is to improve cooperation between command and control elements while fighting off an enemy attack. The wargames will run from March 14 through 18. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-18 Mod 4, SS-N-5

SSTS Sensor Payload Delivered

The Missile Defense Agency has recently announced the delivery of the first Block 2006 sensor payload for the Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) Program. Once deployed, STSS satellites will provide global coverage of ballistic missile launches, and will be capable of tracking missile and warheads through all phases of flight. The STSS payload sensor suite, consisting of an acquisition sensor and a track sensor, is capable of detecting visible and infrared light. Two STSS research and development satellites will launch into low earth orbit in 2007 on a single Delta II launch vehicle, and will demonstrate the key functions of a space-based sensor. The STSS payload was built by Raytheon and delivered to the STSS prime contractor Northrop Grumman in Redondo Beach, California. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS)

Andrew on Chinese Missile and Defensive Buildup

Martin Andrew of the Jamestown Foundation argues that ballistic missile defense in Asia is reducing China’s strategic deterrence. As China deploys its theater-range missiles, other military powers in the region are investing in BMD systems, such as sea-based Aegis systems and ground-based THAAD systems. These new systems will be able to intercept Chinese missiles over Chinese airspace, thus putting China in what Andrew terms a “strategic quandary.” An excerpt:

BMD systems are being deployed in Northeast Asia because of the build-up in Chinese and North Korean ballistic missiles. Yet if it were to negotiate the removal of its ballistic missiles facing Taiwan it loses its key leverage over Taiwan—with Japan and South Korea still keeping their BMD systems in the face of North Korea’s arsenal. Yet by sustaining—and adding to—missile forces in Fujian, Beijing runs the risk of negating its strategic deterrence. If the Chinese leadership follows its doctrine of active defense and believed its nuclear deterrence was becoming neutralized or under threat, it could conceivably launch strikes against Taiwan and Japanese and U.S. ballistic defense missile forces, certainly leading to retaliatory economic and military action. With the acceleration of Chinese ballistic missile forces opposite Taiwan, this is becoming a matter of concern on both sides of the Asia-Pacific.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

X-Band Radar in Japan To Undergo Trials over Summer

A new mobile X-band radar, designed to detect and track ballistic missiles, is now being deployed in Japan and will begin trials this summer, reports Kyodo. The X-band radar operates at a frequency of 10 gigahertz, and provides surveillance, acquisition, tracking, and kill assessment for missile defense systems. Built by the U.S., it will be deployed in the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force’s Shariki base in Tsugaru, located in the northeastern Aomori prefecture. The radar will face the Sea of Japan, and will be operated by approximately 10 U.S. military personnel and 50 civilians. According to the report, the X-band radar is expected to be fully installed by December 2006. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Japan

» Missile system details for: Forward-Based X-Band Radar-Transportable

State Dept. on Japanese Missile Defense Cooperation

Japan has emerged as the U.S.’s most significant missile defense partner, according to a recent State Department press release. In testimony before a House Armed Services subcommittee hearing March 9, Lt. General Henry “Trey” Obering, director of MDA, cited Japan’s important role in the recent flight test of a Standard Missile-3 interceptor using an enhanced nose cone developed by Japan; the Japanese government’s decision to deploy a new X-band radar to detect and track missile attacks; and Japan’s collaborative role in the Aegis sea-based missile defense system. The press release also quotes Peter Flory, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy, who added that Japan has committed to spend around $1 billion on missile defense initiatives. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Japan

Patriot Problems Almost Resolved

The U.S. Army has almost completed modifications to its Patriot missile systems in order to prevent future friendly-fire accidents, reports DefenseNews. During the 2003 Iraq War, three friendly-fire deaths occurred when Patriot missiles mistakenly shot down Allied aircraft. On March 9, Lt. General Larry Dodgen, commander of Army Space and Missile Defense Command, said that the Army has upgraded the training of its Patriot crews and added tactical data links to the system that should give them greater awareness of friendly and enemy aircraft. Last year, Congress allowed the Army to shift $43 million in funding to address the problems. (Article, Link) 

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

U.S.-Japan SM-3 Interceptor Test Successful, Using Innovative Japanese Nosecone

The U.S. and Japan successfully test-launched a Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) today from the Aegis-equipped cruiser USS Lake Erie near Hawaii. The SM-3 was equipped with an experimental nosecone, which is being jointly developed by the Missile Defense Agency and the Japanese Defense Agency.
        The demonstration also tested prototypes for the rocket motor, but the primary test was of an innovative “clamshell” nosecone, designed by Japan to more quickly release the interceptor’s kill vehicle. In the standard configuration for previous tests, the SM-3 missile must maneuver to eject the barrel-shaped kill vehicle—a process known as “pitch and ditch.” The newer nosecone eliminates the need for such maneuvers, which in turn means the kinetic kill vehicle can collide with and destroy its target more quickly. The flight test did not involve an attempted intercept of a target missile, but simulated target data was instead fed into the computers of Aegis weapon system. Instead of a kill vehicle aboard the SM-3, its nosecone instead contained a camera and instruments to register temperature and shock readings during the flight. In today’s test, the nosecone was deployed at about 88 kilometers above the Pacific Ocean and 96 km northwest of the island of Kauai.
        Japan has already decided to procure the SM-3 and the Aegis defense system for several of its Kongo class destroyers, as well as purchasing a number of Patriot (PAC-3) interceptors, and having received a license to produce others. Japan’s innovation in missile defense technologies is a further sign of growing international support for ballistic missile defense. (Article, Link) 

» Defense News on SM-3 Test

» MDA Photos of SM-3 interceptor launch

» More stories on: Allies, Japan, Testing - American, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Jane’s: Iran Moving Shahab-3 Missiles

Jane’s Missiles and Rockets reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which controls Iran’s ballistic missile forces, has been moving its mobile Shahab-3 batteries every 24 hours as a precautionary measure. According to Western intelligence sources, the batteries have apparently remained within a 35 km radius, presumably to stay within range of their command-and-control centers. The IRGC has also moved Shahab-3 units to Kermanshah and Hamadan provinces in the west of the country, with reserve batteries deployed in Fars and Isfahan provinces further east. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran

» Missile details: Shahab-6

General Bell to Armed Services: North Korea Preparing Three Stage Taepo Dong

North Korea continues to develop a three-stage Taepodong missile that could target the contintental U.S. In written testimony for the Senate Armed Services Committee, General Burwell Bell, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, stated Tuesday that this new missile “could be operational within the next decade.” He noted that Pyongyang maintained a “fairly active program” to develop and test the missile up through the late 1990s, although there has been less activity in recent years. However, Bell added that “there’s no doubt in my mind that they have the capability to begin more technological investigation and to begin a regiment to lead to testing and potentially to lead to fielding.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea

» Missile details: Tien Ma 1

North Korea Fires Two Short Range Surface to Air Missiles

North Korea fired two surface-to-air missiles near its border with China on Wednesday, reports Kyodo. The news agency cited unidentified sources as saying that Pyongyang launched the missiles by mistake “in the direction toward China,” although there is speculation that the launches were intentional tests. According to a Western military source, the short-range missiles were test-fired from North Korea’s eastern coast toward the Sea of Japan. The exact time of the launches remains unknown, although the missiles are believed to have landed in North Korean territory. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea

Exile Group: Iran Hiding Missiles

Iran is hiding more than 300 long-range ballistic missiles in two towns, reports an Iranian exile group. As quoted in the Associated Press, the National Council of Resistance of Iran added that North Korean experts in guidance systems, warhead production, missile fuel systems, and explosion and blast systems are working with Iranian officials at the Hemmat Missile Industries Complex, northeast of Tehran, to develop a new missile with a range of 3,000 km (1,900 miles). (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea

Taiwan Says Facing 784 Chinese Missiles

China posseses 784 missiles that could paralyze Taiwan’s communications, transportation, and command centers in a 10-hour bombardment, according to the Taiwanese Defense Ministry. AFX Asia quotes Lieutenant Colonel Chen Chang-hua who stated that China has “deployed 784 ballistic missiles with the entire island coming within their range, with the precision margin narrowing from 600 meters to 50 meters. Armed with the missiles, they can launch five waves of intensive bombings for 10 hours.” Chen’s statements come at a time of escalating tensions after Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian scrapped an advisory council on unification with the Chinese mainland, provoking fury in Beijing. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Taiwan

Opposition Group: Iran Increasing Missile Production

Iran has ramped up its production of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, says a key opposition figure. Speaking to the Associated Press, Alireza Jafarzadeh, head of the Washington-based Strategic Policy Consulting think tank, stated that Iran has “significantly increased the production line” of its Shahab-3 missiles, and is now turning out missiles at a rate of approximately 90 per year, more than four times its previous production rate.
        Jafarzadeh quoted unnamed sources inside Iran as confirming that Iran’s most advanced Shahab has a range of 1,900 km (nearly 1,200 miles), which would allow it to easily strike Israel and U.S. military bases throughout the region. He added that Iranian engineers, working with North Korean experts at the Hemmat Missile Industries complex in Tehran, are 70 percent finished on prototype Ghadar-101 and Ghadar-110 missiles, which are believed to have ranges of up to 3,000 km (1,800 miles), putting central Europe within range. These new missiles are believed to have a launch time of 30 minutes, compared to several hours for the Shahab-3.
        Three years ago, Jafarzadeh helped reveal what was then Iran’s clandestine nuclear program. In January, he divulged details of Iran’s enrichment plans, which were confirmed a few days ago by the IAEA. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran

» Missile details: Shahab-6

Russian General on the Future of Strategic Forces

Major-General Vladimir Vasilenko, head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s 4th Central Research and Development Institute, recently spoke to Interfax about the future of the Strategic Missile Troops. Vasilenko, who is responsible for strategic weapons planning, said that the SMT should give priority to high-survivable mobile ground and naval systems. Under the 2002 Treaty on Strategic Offensive Potentials, Russia and the U.S. should reduce their strategic potentials to 2,200 warheads by December 2012, and keep between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads operational in the future. He noted, however, that Russia’s need for strategic force development will be determined by the scale and specifications of missile defense systems, such as those being deployed by the U.S. “The quality of the strategic nuclear forces of Russia will have to be significantly improved in terms of adding to their capability of penetrating NMD barriers and increasing the survivability of combat elements and enhancing the properties of surveillance and control systems.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Russian General Threatens Arms Race, Again

A senior Russian general recently warned that U.S ballistic missile defense could spark a nuclear arms race. Speaking to Interfax on 27 February, Colonel-General Varfolomey Korobushin, vice president of the Military Science Academy, stated that “If the U.S. deploys a national missile defense, other nuclear powers may opt for increasing their nuclear missile potential, which will worsen the situation in the world.” Korobushin also warned Eastern European countries against allowing Washington to deploy missile defense interceptors within their territories, or else risk that “the balance of power in the nuclear missile domain will be shattered.”
        Korobushin added that Russia’s strategic missiles now have the capability to penetrate any missile defense. “Large amounts of heavy and light fake charges in each missile that enter space simultaneously with combat elements will significantly reduce U.S. NMD intercepting capabilities.” He acknowledged that the U.S. system might intercept one or more missiles, “but it will never intercept hundreds of combat elements that would be sent as part of the retaliation strike.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia