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Pakistan Tests Hatf-6 Missile

On Saturday, Pakistan test-launched its Hatf-6 (Shaheen-2) long-range ballistic missile from an undisclosed location. The Hatf-6 is Pakistan’s longest-range ballistic missile, capable of traveling 2,000 km. It includes a two-stage solid-fuel missile capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads. The test was witnessed by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, who stated afterwards that “we will continue to pursue vigorously our security and energy needs from all sources including nuclear.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Pakistan, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Hatf 6

Kochems and Gudgel on Directed Energy Technologies

Directed-energy weapons (DEWs) are a reality and may appear on the battlefield within the next decade, writes Alane Kochems, a policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation, and Andrew Gudgel, a former Army Warrant Officer. In a recent article, Kochems and Gudgel describe these new weapons systems, capable of attacking pin­point targets with either continuous light beams or short, intense pulses. The main advantage of DEWs is their instantaneous target acquisition, allowing them to destroy high-velocity threats such as missiles and artillery shells in mid-flight. In addition, controllers can vary energy strength, allowing for non-lethal uses. The U.S. currently has two directed-energy missile defense systems under development: the Tactical High-Energy Laser, designed to shoot down short-range rockets, artillery, and mortar shells; and the Airborne Laser, which uses a megawatt chemical laser mounted on a modified Boeing 747 to shoot down theater-range ballistic missiles. Kochems and Gudgel describe other projects such as high-power microwave weapons that produce short bursts of high-frequency radio energy, and pulsed power devices that create intense, ultra-short bursts of electrical energy. The authors note that future research will seek to increase the power and decrease the size of DEW systems, allowing them to be vehicle-mounted, and eventually man-portable. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: High Energy Defenses

Hackett on Missile Defense Policy and Iran

Writing for The Washington Times, James T. Hackett offers a sobering assessment of the ballistic missile threat from Iran. The Islamic Republic is currently believed to have between 50 and 100 operational Shahab-3s. It produces one additional Shahab per month, with production reportedly increasing. Modifications could extend the missile’ range to 2,000 miles, which would reach Berlin. Iran may also be buying North Korea’s longer-range Taepodong-2. With a second stage on top, that missile could reach the U.S. East Coast. Hackett argues that diplomacy is the prudent course for now, but the U.S. should simultaneously improve its missile defenses. The Pentagon should help Israel upgrade its Arrow interceptors, deploy sea-based missile defense in the Persian Gulf, build the planned missile defense site in Europe, and develop of boost-phase defenses that can stop missile of any range or capability. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Iran

» Missile details: Shahab-6

Rubin Interview on Iranian Capabilities

IranWatch.org recently interviewed Uzi Rubin, former head of Israel’s Arrow missile defense program. Rubin described Iran’s latest effort to field a fleet of nuclear capable ballistic missiles, assessed the threat that Iran’s missiles present to Israel and U.S. forces, and evaluated the ability of missile defenses to block an Iranian attack. He noted that a robust combination of Israeli and U.S. defenses could be “quite effective” against the Iranian threat. For instance, Israel’s Arrow program, which was specifically designed to defend against the Shahab-3, was proven successful in multiple tests against simulated Shabab-3s. Likewise, the U.S. is deploying Standard Missile-3 interceptors on Aegis-equipped warships, which have also been proven successful in recent tests. The U.S. also operates Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors, which were battle-tested during the 2003 Iraq War and shot down all targets engaged. However, Rubin noted that “we never have enough” interceptors, and that Israel and the U.S. remain vulnerable should Iran choose to launch a large-scale attack. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Iran, Israel

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

New Third Stage Rocket Motor of SM-3 Interceptor Successfully Tested

A new third stage rocket motor for MDA’s Standard Missile-3 interceptor was successfully tested on Monday, reports UPI. The test was carried out at Edwards Air Force Base, California, inside a vacuum chamber designed to simulate the space environment the SM-3 would encounter if launched against an incoming warhead. The third stage motor is designed to boost the SM-3 out of the atmosphere and to carry its Mk142 kinetic warhead (kill vehicle) to its intended target. The test successfully demonstrated the extended time lapse between the end of the motor’s first pulse and the initiation of the second. The first pulse puts the third stage on an intercept trajectory while the second pulse makes any necessary last-minute course corrections.
        The SM-3 is a joint initiative between the U.S. and Japan. Once operational, the interceptors will be deployed on Aegis destroyers and cruisers as a sea-based defense against medium and long-range missiles.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Spring on Need for Congress to Advance “Limited” Funding

Baker Spring of the Heritage Foundation argues that U.S. missile defense is “very thin and needs to be strengthened.” The current, limited, defensive shield of eleven Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptors in Alaska and California and less than ten Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors on Aegis warships are not enough to adequately defend against an attack from Iran or North Korea. Congress must make the following changes to its missile defense budget for FY 2007: (1) increase funding for the GMD system by $200 million to accelerate testing and deployment; (2) increase funding for the SM-3 by $100 million to support the deployment of 100 interceptors by 2011; (3) cut funding for the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) program by 50 percent; (4) reduce funding for miscellaneous BMD projects by $100 million and redirect the funds to near-term deployment; and (5) reallocate resources to new technologies previously banned by the ABM Treaty, such as space-based interceptors.

Congress, as it undertakes the task of drafting the fiscal year (FY) 2007 Defense Authorization bill, must recognize that this defense is very thin and needs to be strengthened. It can do so by making several significant changes in the missile defense budget, such as adding funds to accelerate the concurrent testing and operation program for the long-range missile defense interceptors in Alaska and California and to improve and expand the sea-based interceptors on the Navy’s AEGIS ships. Looking to the future, Congress should direct the Agency to start serious work on placing missile defense interceptors in space.

…The Bush Administration must finally break the missile defense program free from the enduring effects of the ABM Treaty. This means giving the missile defense interceptors already in the field and those soon to be fielded as much operational capability as possible. It also means moving missile defenses where they will be most effective, space. By adjusting missile defense funding for FY 2007 and making clear its intentions for future years, Congress can prod the Administration in this direction.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Space-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

Russia: Russian Bombers Penetrated Arctic Without U.S. Detection

Russian bombers penetrated U.S. airspace over the Arctic Ocean during recent military exercises, claimed a senior Russian Air Force general on Sunday. Lieutenant General Igor Khvorov, commander of Russia’s long-range strategic bombers, stated that U.S. forces “were unable to detect the planes either with radars or visually.” Khvorov’s remarks indicate that the aforementioned Russian aircraft could be Tu-160 Blackjack, Tu-22 Bear, or Tu-22 Blinder strategic bombers. (Article, Link) 

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Henderson on Saudi-China-Pakistan Missile Ties

Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently commented on missile ties between Saudi Arabia, China, and Pakistan. The Saudis currently possess an arsenal of aging Chinese-designed CSS-2 missiles, purchased from China in the 1980s. Riyadh hopes to upgrade this arsenal with modern Chinese-designed missiles and perhaps nuclear warheads to create a deterrent against Iran. Henderson speculates that the Saudis will attempt to acquire from Pakistan both Chinese-designed missiles and dual-key Pakistani nuclear warheads. Under such a system, Saudi Arabia would have the key that controls the missiles, while Pakistan would have the key that controls the warheads. The result would technically not breach the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and perhaps evade Chinese international obligations against the transfer of ballistic missiles. However, a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia would severely undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts to block Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and dramatically alter the regional balance of power.
        Henderson notes that Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah visited Pakistan in February 2006, on his way back from China. In addition, Crown Prince Sultan, the Saudi defense minister, was in Pakistan in April. On Sultan’s previous trip to Pakistan in 1999, he toured Pakistan’s Kahuta uranium enrichment and missile production center, where he was escorted by the then director, the nuclear proliferator A.Q. Khan. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, China, Pakistan, Proliferation

» Missile details: CSS-2

Russia Tests New Reentry Vehicle Said Designed to Penetrate U.S. Defenses

Russia test-launched a new warhead designed to penetrate U.S. missile defenses on Saturday. The warhead was launched aboard a K65M-R missile from the Kapustin Yar testing ground in the southern Astrakhan region. The K65M (R-14) is a launcher used to deliver satellites to orbit. Itar-Tass quotes Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces, who noted that the test involved optic and radar measurement systems that reproduce U.S. missile defense systems. Kommersant reported that the test was made with the K65-M launcher as opposed to a newer Topol-M for cost reasons, and that only one Topol-M per year would be test launched, for operating purposes.
        “Saturday, we began official flight tests for the…arming of promising missile systems which will go into service in 2008,” Ivanov was quoted by the Itar-Tass news agency as saying when he reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin, “that is of landmark significance for us and the country.” Ivanov added that “The deviation [from target] did not exceed several hundred meters, which is a good result for the first launch. The warhead dummy arrived at the preset point at a distance of more than 2,000 kilometers at the Balkhash test field in Kazakhstan, leased by Russia.”
        The warhead tested is under consideration for use on both land and sea-based missiles, presumably the Topol-M and Bulava. The trajectory on which it is tested makes use of many radars at the Sary Shagan site.  (Article, Link) 

» Kommersant on K65M-R test

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

Payne on Lingering Allegiance to the Balance of Terror

“Cold War era” political thinking is threatening to undermine recent progress that has been made in U.S. ballistic missile defense, argues Keith Payne in Defense News. From the early 1960s to the late 1970s, U.S. strategic thought was dominated by the concept of deterrence, a “balance of terror” that categorized strategic BMD as “unnecessary, useless, destabilizing, unaffordable, and an impediment to ending what was called the arms race.” Payne notes that this balance of terror “amazingly retains a powerful hold on thinking in many political and academic circles,” even though it is largely irrelevant to contemporary threats posed by Iran and North Korea. The continuing hold of this concept is unfortunate, he argues, because the shift in context from Cold War to post-Cold War has changed the “measures of merit” for missile defense. First, while effective BMD was considered “technically infeasible and practically unaffordable” again the Soviet Union, the much more limited post-Cold War threats have greatly eased these challenges. Second, while the “balance of terror” was considered predictable against the Soviet leadership and thus decreased the value of BMD, the enormous uncertainties attached to predicting the behavior of the Iranian and North Korean leadership increase the value of these defenses. Third, the Cold War logic that missile defense is destabilizing is incoherent against contemporary threats, as BMD systems cannot motivate nuclear enemies to strike first when the U.S. retains the ability to launch an annihilating second strike. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

MDA Test of Countermeasures Program

On April 13, MDA launched an Orbital SR19 rocket at the Pacific Missile Range in Hawaii as part of its Critical Measurements/Countermeasures Program. The test was designed to evaluate missile defense sensors. The SR19 was equipped with a payload engineered by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which included countermeasures, a mock reentry vehicle, an on-board sensor package, and a number of missile defense related experiments. The payload successfully collected radar and optical data addressing critical system level planned upgrades for missile defense elements. The overall project was managed by Lockheed Martin; Orbital Sciences Corp. provided launch services. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

CSIS Report on Taiwan’s Vulnerability to Chinese Missiles

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent Washington think tank, recently published a report highlighting Taiwan’s anti-ballistic missile vulnerabilities. The report, entitled “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia,” was prepared by Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under President Clinton, and CSIS senior fellow Jeremiah Gertler. It argues that the cost of deploying missile defenses far exceeds China’s cost of producing large numbers of old-fashioned, lower-tech missiles which could swamp Taiwan’s defenses.
        Campbell and Gertler predict that in the event of a Chinese attack, Taiwan’s interceptors would be outnumbered six or seven to one. In addition, new Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, and fast-attack boats are creating the capability to push U.S. Aegis-equipped warships out of missile defense range, leaving Taiwan entirely dependent on its ground based Patriot systems.
        The report also paints a grim picture of a Taiwanese public, political elite, and military deeply divided over the subject of missile defense. It describes the issue as “unusually polarizing” within the public, adding that opposition political parties view missile defense as “a provocation to China” and an “obstacle to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” In addition, the report points out major divisions within the Taiwanese armed forces, with the Army opposed to missile defense, the Navy in favor, and the Air Force still divided. (Article, Link) 

» CSIS Report: “The Paths Ahead: Missile Defense in Asia”

» More stories on: Analysis, China, Taiwan

Solomonov: Mobile Topol-Ms Operational This Year; Bulava to be Tested This Year, Operational in 2008

Russia has announced the testing and deployment schedule for its mobile Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM and sea-based Bulava (SS-NX-30) SLBM. Yuriy Solomonov, chief designer of Russian ICBMs, was quoted as saying that the first missile regiment armed with truck-mounted Topol-M missiles will be put on combat duty in 2006. The Topol-M is capable of hitting targets at a range of more than 10,000 kilometers (6,000 miles), and is said to be the core of Russia’s modernized missile arsenal. Solomonov added that the Bulava (the sea-based version of the Topol-M) will begin a three-year test schedule in June/July 2006, and will be deployed on the submarine Yuriy Dolgorukiy in 2008. Asked how many trials the Bulava will undergo during this period, Solomonov replied “no less than ten.”
        Solomonov also recently said that the Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM and Bulava (SS-NX-30) SLBM will provide an offensive deterrent through at least 2050. In recent weeks, Russian defense analysts have expressed their concern that the number of Russian nuclear weapons could fall below the threshold of the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty, which requires the U.S. and Russia to cut their nuclear arsenals to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads by 2012. At present, only five or six new single-warhead Topol-Ms are added to the Russian inventory each year, while an increasing number of Soviet-made missile carrying multiple warheads are decommissioned. Solomonov said that the Russian military will announce later this year a plan to adapt the sea-based Bulava, which can carry six warheads, for ground-based launches. The chief designer did not elaborate any further, but assured reporters that the number of active Russian warheads would be no less than 2,000 by 2020.  (Article, Link) 

» Interfax: Bulava-M to undergo testing this summer

» Defense News: Russian arsenal adequate, says designer

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6, SS-26

Vandenberg Missile Defense Site Dedicated to Ronald Reagan

The missile defense facilities at Vandenberg Air Force Base in central California were officially dedicated in honor of former President Ronald Reagan on Monday, April 10. Former First Lady Nancy Reagan was on hand at the dedication ceremony, as well as former California Governor Pete Wilson, Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, and MDA Director Henry “Trey” Obering.
        In 1983, President Reagan called for the development of the Strategic Defense Initiative, a system to protect against a limited long-range ballistic missile attack. In recent years, the former President’s vision has come closer to reality, with the installation of ground-based interceptors at Vandenberg and Fort Greely, Alaska, as well as the planned deployment of other missile defense assets.
        Vandenberg Air Force Base is the third largest Air Force base in the nation, encompassing 98,000 acres, and for nearly half a century it has served as a launch and test site for medium- to long-range ballistic missiles, as well as government and commercial satellites. (Article, Link) 

» Northrop Grumman Congratulates Missile Defense Agency

» Missile system details for: Vandenberg Air Force Base

Romania Again Expresses Interest In Hosting Interceptors

Romania has again expressed interest in hosting U.S. missile defense interceptors on its soil. Defense Minister Teodor Atanasiu on Monday said that such a project would assure his nation’s protection and therefore “must be taken into account.” It was the first time that a Romanian official admitted that the country could host a missile defense base. Atanasiu added that Romania has made a similar offer to several countries in addition to the U.S., but referred to name these countries.
        On December 6, 2005, the U.S. and Romania signed a treaty allowing the U.S. to establish military bases in Romania. One day later, the French daily Le Figaro reported that the Romanian government had already initiated talks with the U.S. concerning the possibility of hosting a missile defense base. The newspaper alleged that the U.S. preferred Romania to Poland, as the authorities in Bucharest seemed more willing to cooperate. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

RIA-Novosti on Foreign Commercial Spacecraft Launched by Russia

Andrei Kislyakov in RIA-Novosti discusses Russia’s role in launching commercial spacecraft for foreign countries. He quotes Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who recently stated that Russia is orbiting spacecraft from between 30 and 40 countries. Kislyakov argues that “the Russian space industry may become an indirect hostage to an orbital conflict,” as it does not always know what it launches. A case in point, although not mentioned by Kislyakov, is Russia’s launch of a new Iranian satellite last October. Many U.S. defense analysts believe that the launch was an attempt by Iran to master a new range of sophisticated technologies that could be used to further its nuclear program. Kislyakov argues that Russia’s actions could lead to a space war between Russia and the U.S. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Space-Based Systems

Dinerman on U.S.-Japan Defense Alliance and the Shifting Asian Balance of Power

Taylor Dinerman argues in TheSpaceReview.com that the U.S.-Japanese missile defense alliance is changing the balance of power against North Korea and to a lesser extent against China. Today, were the U.S. were to deploy a substantial number of Patriot-Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors along with several Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors, they would be able to shoot down half of North Korea’s 100 or so Nodong-1 and 2 missiles. A few years from now, when Japan deploys its PAC-3s and SM-3s, the missile threat from Pyongyang “will be reduced to insignificance.” Similarly, China’s ability to strike the U.S. homeland is diminishing as the U.S. continues to deploy its missile defenses. As the effectiveness of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System (GMD) and the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) increases, the cost to China of maintaining its capability will increase as well. Dinerman adds that if the U.S. were to develop and deploy a space-based system similar to Brilliant Pebbles, China would lose “most of its nuclear options against the U.S. homeland and perhaps against Japan as well.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, China, Japan, North Korea

Asst. Sec. DeSutter on State Department Role in Missile Defense

Paula A. DeSutter, Assistant Secretary for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation spoke at the National Defense University in Washington, DC, on April 4 about the role of the State Department in promoting international missile defense cooperation. In addition to listing the State Department’s efforts to negotiate such arrangements, she explained the strategic rationale behind such cooperation.

Since the U.S. almost never fights alone, cooperation with allies and coalition partners to develop and deploy missile defenses allow us to make effective use of the technological marvels produced by MDA. The most advanced of our allies will bring missile defense-related sensors and interceptors to future combined operations. The use of overseas locations for sensors, ship basing, and potentially interceptors is already important to plans for the defense of the U.S. homeland, and will be important for protecting our allies and friends.

Such missile defense cooperation is vital in its own right, for the defensive benefits it provides in protecting our populations and territory from attack by rogue states armed with ballistic missiles. But missile defense is also an important nonproliferation tool, because the more defenses spread, the more unrewarding and unattractive it will be for would-be missile proliferators to invest in delivery systems which are unlikely to hit their targets. Missile defenses, in other words, deter missile proliferation. Should deterrence of these programs and their use fail, and if a rogue state launched ballistic missiles perhaps tipped with chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons we would view missile defense as the “terminal phase counterproliferation.”

        DeSutter added that cooperation is currently being conducted or discussed with Japan, Britain, Denmark, Australia, Israel, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, and other nations. Joint efforts include research and development, production, testing, training, and simulation exercises. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Arbatov: Russia Should Produce 20-30 Missiles Per Year to Keep up with U.S.

Russia needs to produce between 20 and 30 intercontinental ballistic missiles per year in order to keep up with the U.S., according to a Russian security expert. Alexei Arbatov, head of the international security center at the Russian Academy of Sciences, was quoted in RIA-Novosti as saying that unless Russia boosts its production, the U.S. could have as many as 700-1,200 more warheads than Russia by 2012. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Congressman Brownback on Need for Ballistic Missile Defense

In a speech yesterday at the Heritage Foundation, Congressman Sam Brownback (R-KS) discussed the emerging threats from Iran, North Korea, and transnational terrorist organizations. In particular, he mentioned a point seldom discussed: the vulnerability of U.S. forces in Iraq and South Korea to ballistic missile attack. According to Brownback:

We forget that it was only in 1991 that our troops during the first Gulf war were actually killed by missiles. A single SCUD missile hit a U.S. military barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 28 of our soldiers and wounding 99.

Today, our capacity to shoot down even a relatively crude SCUD missile is not much improved from that time. Our forces in Iraq and Korea—and the civilian populations they defend—have almost no means of protection against Iranian or North Korean ballistic missiles armed with both chemical and conventional warheads.

         Brownback argued that the Pentagon should review and if necessary “step up” its ballistic missile defense programs in order to guarantee the safety of these troops.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Minuteman-3 Tested from Vandenberg

An unarmed Minuteman-3 intercontinental ballistic missile was test-launched today from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The missile’s single, unarmed re-entry vehicle traveled approximately 8,200 km (5,100 miles), striking a pre-determined water target near Guam in the Northern Mariana Islands. The launch was part of a developmental test to demonstrate the weapon’s effectiveness at an extended range. The Minuteman-3 missile originated from the 564th Missile Squadron at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile details: Minuteman I

» Missile system details for: Vandenberg Air Force Base

German Frigates to Acquire Some Missile Defense Capability

The German Navy plans to develop a theater ballistic missile defense role for its Sachsen-class (F-124) anti-air warfare frigates, report Jane’s Missiles and Rockets. Rear Admiral Hubertus von Puttkamer, defense attaché at the German Embassy in the U.S., recently described the plans at the Navy League’s Sea Air Space symposium in Washington, DC. According to von Puttkamer, the German frigates already have the basic components necessary for such a system: Mk-41 vertical launchers, which could take Standard Missile-3 interceptor missiles, and the Thales SMART-L advanced radar system.
        Standard Missile-3 interceptors are currently being developed by the U.S. and Japan for use on Aegis-equipped cruisers and destroyers. (Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Hackett on ABL Program Progress

MDA’s Airborne Laser (ABL) is making progress and will soon provide a boost-phase defense against emerging missile threats, writes James T. Hackett in The Washington Times. The ABL consists of a high-energy laser deployed on a Boeing-747 capable of flying to trouble spots around the world. Once operational, the system will be able to destroy enemy missiles right after their launch, before they can release warheads or decoys. The ABL will add a new boost-phase capability to the U.S. missile defense system, a first line of defense. With two ABLs on station, one could be airborne 24 hours a day, neutralizing threats from North Korea, Iran, elsewhere in the Middle East, or along the China coast.
        Hackett notes that the ABL has met every milestone over the past two years. In 2004, the high-energy laser was fired for the first time. In 2005, it succeeded in generating lethal power. Next year, the laser will be tested in flight. The ABL will then be prepared for its first shoot-down, which will take place in 2008. Hackett remains optimistic about the program, but warns that Washington needs to remain focused on bringing the system to fruition. The recent escalation in the conflict with Iran, he argues, makes the ABL more urgent than ever.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

» Missile system details for: Airborne Laser (ABL)

NYT on Iranian Satellite Launch

Iran’s recent satellite launch demonstrates that the Islamic Republic is attempting to master a new range of sophisticated technologies—satellites and rockets—which could be used to further its nuclear program. William J. Broad and David E. Sanger examine this issue in the New York Times, providing quotes from a broad range of military and space experts. The spacecraft, a microsatellite weighing a few hundred kilograms, was launched last October from Russia. Iran claims that its space program is aimed at improving telecommunications and monitoring natural disasters. However, Iran is currently developing its own delivery devices, the biggest of which “could hurl not only satellites into space but warheads between continents,” according to Broad and Sanger. Thus, while it might be tempting to dismiss Iran’s efforts as crude and benign, Iran’s space-based technologies could very well be used for strategic purposes. If Iran had the ability to monitor and guide its nuclear missiles to their targets, it would become a much more capable and deadly enemy. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Iran, Space-Based Systems

Iran Tests “Sonar-Evading” Underwater Missile

Iran recently tested a new “sonar-evading” underwater missile, which it claims is capable of traveling at 375 km per hour, three to four times faster than conventional torpedoes. General Ali Fadavi of the Iranian Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said that “no vessel can escape from this missile,” which is known as “Hoot,” meaning whale. As usual, Western analysts are skeptical of Iran’s claims. Radio Free Europe catalogues the various inconsistencies and contradictions that surround the alleged missile. Jason Alderwick of the International Institute for Security Studies in London studied video footage of the Hoot released by the Iranian government: “Certainly they seem to have undertaken some form of test, of some ‘missilized’ underwater projectile, but to go so far as to claim it is a credible, fully operational underwater missile I think is overstating [the matter] considerably,” he says. He points out that the best conventional torpedoes have a speed of approximately 110 km per hour: to get them to run at three or four times that speed through rocket power while remaining stealthy is unlikely. Another problem is range: launching an underwater missile at high speed through a dense substance like water means a large consumption of fuel. Although Iran did not specify the Hoot’s range, if its claims are true than the missile would only be useful when attacking ships at close range. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

Iran Tests Second “Radar Avoiding Missile”

Iran announced Tuesday that it has tested a second “radar-avoiding missile” during its war games in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman. The new missile, known as “Kowsar,” was described by Iranian state television as a medium-range surface-to-sea missile designed to sink ships. It is allegedly equipped with remote-control and searching systems, and features a guidance system that can avoid any electronic jam. The Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, as saying that Iran is now able to “confront any extra-regional invasion,” thus referring to the U.S. without mentioning it by name.
        On March 31, Iran test-fired what it referred to as a “Fajr-3” missile, claiming that the missile could avoid radar, similar to the Kowsar. Western intelligence sources, however, have expressed their doubts as to the validity of Iran’s claims.  (Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

Russia Claims Missiles Can Still Reach US, Despite Defenses

A prominent Russian general has claimed that the U.S. will not be able to intercept Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles until 2020, reports Interfax. Colonel-General Viktor Yesin, a former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Troops, recently stated that new strategic missile systems such as the Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM and the Bulava (SS-NX-30) SLBM feature “such design solutions as to make U.S. missile defense systems useless.” Yesin, however, noted that U.S. defenses would have a considerable impact on Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces if they were modified and deployed near Russian borders. “In this event Russia will have to take additional measures aimed at countering missile defense measures to maintain its nuclear potential,” Yesin said. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6, SS-26

Russian START Data: 771 Delivery Systems, 3319 Nuclear Warheads

Russia currently has 771 strategic delivery systems that can carry up to 3,319 nuclear warheads, according to data from the START Treaty Memorandum of Understanding taken on January 1, 2006. The data shows that Russia continues to decommission old strategic systems, which developing new ones. Russia has completely withdrawn its rail mobile SS-24 missiles, and continues to decommission its SS-25 missiles. At the same time, the Strategic Missile Troops are preparing to deploy the mobile version of the Topol-M (SS-27) later this year. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6

Bulava Said to Carry Six Warheads

Russia’s Bulava (SS-NX-30) submarine-launched ballistic missile will carry six warheads, according to the January 2006 START Treaty Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Pavel Podvig comments at RussianForces.org that the number of warheads “seems to be final.”
        The MOU also mentions that the throw-weight of the missile will be 1,150 kg. Podvig, however, comments that this weight seems light in comparison with the latest generation Soviet SLBMs. By comparison, the SS-N-23 carrying four warheads weighed 2,800 kg, while the SS-N-20 carrying ten warheads weighed 2,550 kg. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Russia

» Missile details: SS-26

Baluyevsky: Russia No Longer Working to Achieve “Parity”

General Yuri Baluyevsky, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said today that Russia is no longer working to achieve “military parity” with the U.S. or NATO. Speaking at a press conference in Moscow, Baluyevsky noted that Russia will maintain “sufficient deterrent force” to guarantee its safety. He added that although Russia has “no intention of going to war with NATO,” it will retain enough of a deterrent “to ensure that anyone thinking about invading its borders and seizing its rich natural resources will think again.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Iran Claims Test of Fajr-3 Missile “Invisible” to Radar, Interceptors

Iran has test-fired what it referred to as a “Fajr-3” missile on Friday, March 31, claiming that the missile has the capability to avoid radar and hit several targets simultaneously. According to Gen. Hossein Salami, air force chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the Fajr-3 was launched as large military maneuvers began in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. The test is one of several part of a series of Iranian wargames.
        Some television and media reports, citing little or no evidence, have suggested that the missile tested could have a comparable range to Iran’s longer-range ballistic missile, the Shahab-3, which can travel 2,000 km. But previous intelligence reports indicate that Iran has used the designation “Fajr-3” to reference one of its many artillery rockets, one with an estimated range of only 45 km (approximately 25 miles). If this Fajr-3 is in fact the “ballistic missile” that the Revolutionary Guards test-fired, then Iran would seem to have attracted worldwide attention for a test of apparently little significance.
        A number of sources dispute Iran’s technical claims for the Fajr-3, however, regardless of whether it is anything more than upgraded artillery. Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Russia, speculated that “most probably it is a clone of a Chinese missile or Chinese and old Soviet technologies combined,” which would make the missile “interceptable and predictable.” He added that “there is hardly any realistic ground” to Iran’s statement that the missile is able to strike multiple targets. Pukhov therefore believes that Iran is “fighting the U.S. on the information front.”  (Article, Link) 

» Defense News: Uzi Rubin doubts Iranian claims of indigenous technology

» Russian Expert Disputes Iranian claims

» Fajr-3 description from Globalsecurity.org

» NTI Description of Fajr artillery

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