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NYT on Conventionally Armed ICBMs

Michael Gordon, writing in The New York Times, discusses the Pentagon’s plan to develop a non-nuclear version of the submarine-launched Trident II intercontinental ballistic missile that could be used to attack terrorist camps, enemy missile sites, suspected caches of biological, chemical or nuclear weapons, and other urgent threats. The article features portions of an interview with General James Cartwright, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, who explained the reasoning behind the move toward a non-nuclear system:

In looking for a new weapon, Cartwright said, his goal was a non-nuclear system that could respond to a threat in no more than an hour, including the time that would be needed to secure the president’s authorization to attack. … Neither bombers nor cruise missiles met Cartwright’s requirement because he reasoned that the threat might emerge in a region where the United States lacked bases or had few or no forces. It can take days for the United States to move aircraft and ships into a crisis zone and position them to strike. Bombers can attack remote targets from the United States or bases abroad, but it takes many hours to conduct such a mission. So the Strategic Command developed a plan to fit conventional warheads on existing Trident II ballistic missiles. … The weapon would give the president an option to respond quickly to the sort of immediate dangers that are most likely to become more common in the 21st century without taking the drastic step of resorting to a nuclear-armed ballistic missile.

        Cartwright also outlined a number of measures that could be taken to reduce the risk of miscalculation by another nuclear power. The U.S. could notify Russia and other nations of all launches. It could allow foreign nations to monitor tests of the system. “We are going to put a target area in the ocean so people can actually see what it looks like when it hits the earth and don’t confuse this with a mushroom cloud,” Cartwright said. He added that the U.S. could also launch the missiles from parts of the ocean that would not put them on a trajectory toward Russian territory. The U.S. could also establish an American-Russian center where early warning data could be shared.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Solomonov: Russia Developing Laser and Kinetic Space-Based Weapons

Yuri Solomonov, chief designer of the Russian Topol-M (SS-27) and Bulava (SS-NX-30) missiles, hinted last week that Moscow has a secret space-based weapons program, according to a report from Interfax. Speaking at the Russian Academy of Sciences on May 16, Solomonov discussed new space-based x-ray lasers and kinetic weapons; mini-satellites that would deploy IT systems for monitoring and reacting to operational situations; and high-resolution advanced Earth satellite sensors capable of showing objects as small as half a meter in size from 400 to 500 km away in space. He added that Russia is developing these new space-based assets in order to maintain state security. (Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Space-Based Systems

Pentagon Releases 2006 Report on Military Power of China

On May 23, the Pentagon released its annual report to Congress on the military power of the People’s Republic of China. The report states that China is “pursuing strategic forces modernization to provide a credible, survivable nuclear deterrent and counterstrike capability in response to its perception of an increasingly complex nuclear security environment.” In particular, China is developing forces and concepts focused on denying adversaries the ability to deploy near its borders. The most glaring example is the fact that China is “qualitatively and quantitatively improving its long-range nuclear missile force.” The report adds that China might be revising its policy of “no first use,” meaning that it is considering the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapons-free zones.
        The report also notes that Chinese ballistic missile testing increased in 2005, and states that such an increase “indicat[es] the priority China places on strengthening this force.” It notes that “China’s expansion of missile and other military forces opposite Taiwan has continued unabated.” By the end of 2004, China had deployed 650-730 mobile CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles; by the end of 2005, this number had increased to 710-790. The new SRBMs are believed to feature increased range and accuracy. China is also modernizing its longer-range ballistic missile force “by qualitatively upgrading and/or replacing older systems with newer, more survivable ones,” including the DF-31, a new road-mobile, solid-propellant ICBM. The report notes that an extended-range DF-31A “can target most of the world, including the continental United States.” China is also deploying the JL-2 SLBM on its Jin-class (Type 094) ballistic missile submarines, and developing new methods to counter ballistic missiles defenses.
        The Pentagon adds that China has acquired new Russian-made S-300P (SA-10) and S-400 (SA-20) air/missile defense interceptors, and has deployed them along the Taiwan Strait. China is also expected to deploy an extended range S-300PMU2, which would allow the People’s Liberation Army to engage targets over Taiwanese airspace. At the same time, China is developing “new concept” high energy weapon systems such as radio frequency and laser-based systems that could be used against missiles, aircraft, and command and control units. Evidence also exists that Beijing continues to pursue a new offensive anti-satellite system, which would most likely include a ground-based laser designed to damage or blind imaging satellites. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China

» Missile details: CSS-6, CSS-7

Aegis SM-2 Interceptor Destroys Target in Successful Test

The Missile Defense Agency conducted a successful test of a Standard Missile-2 (SM-2 Block IV) interceptor based on Aegis ships. Although the testing regime for the ship-launched Aegis system has been extraordinarily successful, this particular test marks the first time in which a ship-launched interceptor has ever destroyed a ballistic missile in its “terminal,” or descent phase. The Pearl Harbor-based Aegis cruiser USS Lake Erie conducted the interception of a short-range target missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii.         The intercept also tested whether a missile could be destroyed in its terminal phase by means of an explosive, with a blast nearby, as opposed to a purely kinetic interception: “In today’s test, the threat missile was completely destroyed by the combined effects of these two mechanisms,” according to the agency’s press release. The press release continued:

The modified Aegis Weapon System and the modified SM-2 Block IV provided the firing ship the capability to guide the missile to achieve either; 1) a direct body to body hit between the interceptor and the threat or, 2) a near-direct hit where the high pressure, heat and fragments are placed on the threat by a blast fragmentation warhead. This warhead is similar in concept to that used in the deployed Israeli Arrow system. In today’s test, the threat missile was completely destroyed by the combined effects of these two mechanisms.

         “This is another example of the ongoing cooperative spirit between the Navy and the Missile Defense Agency,” said Rear Admiral Barry McCullough, Director, Surface Warfare, on the staff of the Chief of Naval Operations. Of today’s test, Admiral McCullough commented that it represents “an important step towards the desired end-state of a robust sea-based terminal ballistic missile defense capability, and it begins to meet an immediate near-term concern of our Combatant Commanders.” The only current terminal defenses are the Patriot (PAC-3), which have not been deployed on ships.

        The significance of sea-based terminal defenses is to provide a mobile capability such as could be deployed near or between an enemy’s missiles and their plausible destination. Specific applications which might be of “near term concern” to Combatant Commanders could include the potential posting of ships near a coastal target, whether near Japan or South Korea—or an American coast.  (Article, Link) 

» Jane’s on SM-2 terminal intercept

» More stories on: Allies, Sea-Based Systems, Ship-Launched Threat, Testing - American

MIT Probe Rejects Postol Allegations of Fraud

Five years ago, Theodore Postol, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, accused the university’s Lincoln Laboratory of committing fraud in a missile defense study. He argued that MIT scientists were acting in bad faith when they used what he said was flawed data to deem “basically sound” the results from a 1997 test of an infrared missile sensor. In the subsequent investigation, the Department of Defense refused to release classified information to Postol and others. The accusations were left unanswered for three to four years, which Postol denounced as fraud. Last fall, a panel of four MIT professors began looking into the matter, and The Boston Globe recently reported the panel’s conclusion that MIT did not make any serious mistakes. Rather, they found that Postol himself had impeded the investigation by modifying and amending his accusations over time. “The absence of a clear, concise and consistent definition of the allegation complicated the conduct of the inquiry,” the panel said. They faulted Postol further for revealing confidential information to the media and others. (Article, Link) 

» Oct. 23, 2005: The Boston Globe profiles Theodore Postol

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2), Patriot

Iran Fires Shahab-3 Missile

Iran test launched a Shahab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile on Tuesday night. The launch took place just hours before U.S. President George W. Bush met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to discuss the Iranian threat.
        Reports describe the test as only “partly successful,” and most likely did not indicate an advance in the missile’s capabilities. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Shahab-6

U.S. to Deploy PAC-3 at Okinawa

The United States will deploy Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptor missiles at the Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, reports Asia Pulse. The deployment will boost defenses against a possible missile strike from North Korea or China. Japan also plans to deploy PAC-3 batteries at bases in the Saitama and Shizuoka prefectures near Tokyo, among other locations. (Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Japan

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Brown and Schlesinger on Need for Conventionally Armed ICBMs

Harold Brown and James Schlesinger, two former U.S. secretaries of defense, today published an op-ed in The Washington Post in support of deploying conventional warheads on U.S. ICBMs. The article begins with a detailed description of the very type of situation that would require such warheads.

Within the past hour, a terrorist organization, known to have acquired several nuclear weapons, has been observed by a U.S. imaging system loading the weapons onto vehicles and preparing to leave for an unknown destination. A delay of even an hour or two in launching a U.S. strike on that location could mean the group would depart, contact might be lost, and the weapons would be smuggled into the United States or an allied nation and detonated.

… If the terrorists were far from U.S. aircraft or cruise missiles, the only option available to the president would be to order the use of a ballistic missile—a land-based Minuteman or submarine-based Trident D5—either one of which could hit a target almost anywhere on the globe within a half-hour. One big problem, though: At present, all of these missiles are equipped only with nuclear warheads.

Would the president order a preventive nuclear strike in such circumstances? It’s conceivable, but very unlikely. There would still be doubts as to whether the intelligence was accurate, and even if it was, the consequences of an unprecedented action of this kind might well be regarded as unacceptable—in terms of the risk to innocent lives, of environmental damage and of the expected political repercussions around the world.

        

        Brown and Schlesinger argue that the increasing likelihood of “scenarios requiring prompt, precise, non-nuclear strikes” justifies the Pentagon’s move to replace the nuclear warheads on two of the Trident D5 missiles on every strategic submarine with new highly accurate, conventional warheads. They note, however, that the proposal has been met with strong opposition, both domestically and internationally.

Some have argued that it is unwise to substitute conventional warheads for nuclear ones on strategic submarines even if it’s only on two missiles per submarine. They fear it could be the beginning of a wholesale attempt to replace nuclear capabilities with conventional weapons. Given that submarine-based warheads constitute roughly two-thirds of the U.S. deterrent, and are the component best able to survive, these capabilities should not be compromised, they maintain. But the concept does not require a reduction in submarine-based warheads. Additional nuclear warheads would be added to the remaining nuclear-armed missiles on each submarine to keep the number constant.

Others assert that mistakes could be made in the action messages conveyed to the submarines or that, for some other reason, the granting of a dual mission to strategic submarines could compromise the strict controls that ensure that nuclear missiles are not launched inadvertently. But the Navy has worked out both procedural and physical measures that will avoid any such problems, and it has high credibility in this regard. For decades during the Cold War the Navy maintained both conventional and nuclear versions of air defense missiles, cruise missiles, torpedoes and bombs on its ships and submarines without serious incident.

Still others are concerned that the launch of even one long-range ballistic missile, nuclear-armed or not, could trigger an adverse reaction from Russia and even a counter-launch if Russian leaders feared that they themselves were under attack. Past experience indicates that detection of a single missile launch (especially from a submarine operating area), even if detected and unannounced, might raise a diplomatic issue, but it wouldn’t trigger a military response. In any case, Russian leaders could be notified and the reasons for the strike disclosed as the missile neared its target.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

» Missile details: Scud B variant

NYT on Plans for Europe Site

The Pentagon is expected to choose the location for a new European missile defense site this summer, reports The New York Times. Poland and the Czech Republic are among the nations under consideration. The plan calls for the installation of 10 interceptor missiles by 2011, which would be able to defend Europe or the U.S. against Iranian missile strikes. The Pentagon has asked Congress for $56 million to begin initial work on the European site, and the final cost, including the interceptors themselves, is estimated at $1.6 billion. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

» Missile system details for: Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

Hackett on NATO Plans

NATO plans to study ways to integrate existing European theater missile defense systems, writes James T. Hackett in The Washington Times. The goal will be to create an “alliance shield” that will allow data from land-, sea- and space-based sensors to be consolidated through a unified command system and provided to available interceptors. The integration is planned to start this year. At present, several European countries possess limited theater missile defenses. Germany, the Netherlands, and Greece have Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) interceptors. Spain plans to get the PAC-2 soon, and the Dutch are upgrading to the PAC-3. Germany, Italy, and the U.S. are jointly developing the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS), which will use an enhanced PAC-3 interceptor. U.S. Aegis-equipped warships in the seas around Europe are equipped with SPY-1 early-warning radars, and some will soon carry SM-3 interceptors. Spain and Norway will soon own Aegis-equipped frigates as well, and Germany plans to develop a sea-based BMD for some of its own frigates. Great Britain, Italy, and France are developing the Aster-30, a sea-based air defense system that is being upgraded to a BMD capability. Turkey has just allocated $1 billion to purchase a missile defense system. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, European Missile Defenses

Activity Reported at North Korean Taepo-dong Missile Site

North Korea has transported a Taepo-dong missile to a base in northeastern North Korea, reports Japan’s Kyodo news agency. U.S. and South Korean satellites captured movements of trailers carrying a “missile-like object” over 30 meters in length to a test site at Musudan-ri, Hwadae-gun, in the North Hamgyong Province. The missile is said to be most likely a Taepo-dong-2, 32 meters long with a range of between 4,300 and 6,000 km. There is the possibility that the missile could be the longer-range Taepo-dong-2 upgrade that could be capable of striking Alaska. The Kyodo report quotes Japanese government sources as saying that a test launch could be imminent, but other sources have expressed both doubt and uncertainty. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea

» Missile details: Tien Chi, Tien Ma 1

Solomonov: Russia Might Also Convert ICBMs to Non-Nuclear Warheads

Yuri Solomonov, chief designer of the Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM and Bulava (SS-NX-30) SLBM, announced today that Russia may convert some ICBMs to non-nuclear warheads. Speaking at a meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ presidium in Moscow, Solomonov noted that in 2003 the U.S. transformed Ohio-class SSBNs into non-nuclear submarines, and argued that Russia should embrace the same approach. “Otherwise, an escalation in a conflict may result in destroying the current civilization,” he said. Solomonov added that a non-nuclear missile would be capable of inflicting the same damage as the Chernobyl accident.
        Solomonov’s statements clashed with those of General Yuri Baluyevsky, chief of staff of the Russian Armed Forces, who on Thursday strongly criticized U.S. plans to use conventional warheads on ICBMs, claiming that they could endanger world stability. “It is a matter of international law, and without addressing it properly there can be no stability in the world,” he said. On May 11, Sergei Sobyanin, chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressed his concern as well, claiming that the U.S. is making an “irresponsible decision” that could provoke an inappropriate response from another nuclear power.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Solomonov: Russia and Kazakhstan Considering Joint Air-Launched Space-Vehicle

Russia and Kazakhstan are considering the development of a joint air-launched space vehicle, according to Yuri Solomonov, director and designer general of the Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering. At present, Orbital Sciences Corporation in the U.S. operates the world’s only aerospace system consisting of the L-1011 aircraft and the light-weight Pegasus-XL launch vehicle. However, Solomonov today stated that the Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering, along with Russia’s Aircraft Corporation MiG, could begin work on the Ishim air-launched space system by July 1, 2007.
        As envisioned, the Ishim complex would include two MiG-31I aircraft, a three-stage launch vehicle, as well as an Ilyushin Il-76MD Midas surveillance plane. The MiG-31I would climb to an altitude of 15 to 18 km, fly 600 km toward a predetermined point, engage the launch vehicle, and attain a speed of 2,120-2,230 km/hour. The Ishim system would be able to place 160 kg payloads into 300 km circular orbits, and 60 kg payloads into 120 km orbits. Both MiG-31Is are currently deployed in Kazakhstan, which is financing the project.
        The Ishim project is based on research and development conducted by the Soviet Union during the late 1980s and early 1990s as part of its “anti-SDI” program. Similar to the U.S. anti-satellite (ASAT) system for destroying enemy satellites, which used a number of air-launched missiles, the Soviet Mikoyan Design Bureau in 1987 converted two MiG-31 fighters into improvised missile carriers and designated them as MiG-31Ds. The second prototype MiG-31D was tested outside Moscow for several years, although the “anti-SDI” missile never progressed past the experimental stage.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Former Soviet Republics, Russia, Space-Based Systems

Baluyevsky: Russia Tested Defense-Penetrating System in February, Criticizes U.S. Conventional-Armed ICBMs

General Yuri Baluyevsky, chief of staff of the Russian Armed Forces, announced on Thursday that Russia successfully tested a new defense-penetrating missile system in February. Speaking at a news briefing in Moscow, he stated that the new system will be ready “in the nearest future.” The new warheads, designed to zigzag on their approach to targets, are to be fitted on the new mobile land-based Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM and the sea-based Bulava (SS-NX-30) SLBM currently under development. In his state-of-the-nation address last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the new high-precision weapons would allow Russia to maintain a strategic balance of forces with the U.S. even with a smaller arsenal.
        At the same briefing, Baluyevsky criticized U.S. plans to deploy non-nuclear warheads on ICBMs, warning that if launched they could provoke an accidental retaliatory nuclear strike. “This may cause an irreversible reaction on the part of nuclear powers which will be unable to identify the type of missile warhead and establish whom it has been launched against,” he said. Baluyevsky noted that, although early-warning systems register all ICBM launches, they do not provide information about warhead types and possible targets.  (Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6, SS-26

THAAD Flight Test Successful

The Missile Defense Agency successfully completed a flight test of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system today at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. All THAAD components were tested, including the mobile launcher, radar, fire control and communications element, and the interceptor missile. The test did not involve a target missile, but utilized “virtual target” software. According to MDA, the test successfully demonstrated the performance of the interceptor missile, which successfully maneuvered into the path of the virtual target. The THAAD radar also participated in the test by acquiring and tracking the virtual target and providing in-flight updates.
        THAAD is designed to intercept short- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles during the “terminal” phase of a ballistic missile’s flight, the final minute or so before it strikes its target. MDA plans to conduct a live target intercept later this year. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

Pentagon Acquisition Head Defends Plans for Space Test Bed

Kenneth Krieg, undersecretary of defense for acquisition, has endorsed a plan that could lead to the deployment of U.S. missile defense assets in space. The space-based “test bed,” as it is currently known, would initially include as few as one or two interceptors designed to shoot down ballistic missiles carrying nuclear, chemical, or biological warheads.
        According to Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, director of MDA, in a September interview with Arms Control Today magazine, the test bed would have no offensive capability and would simply be used to evaluate the value of deploying interceptor missiles in space. MDA plans to seek $45 million to start building the experimentation center in the fiscal year that starts October 1, 2007. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems

Movement on NATO Defenses; Joint Russian-U.S. Test Scheduled for October

NATO experts released a 10,000-page report yesterday warning of a mounting threat of missile strikes against allied nations, and urged governments to consider plans for developing missile defenses in Europe. Marshall Billingslea, NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investment, told reporters that the 26-nation alliance could build an effective network of sensors and interceptors to shoot down incoming missiles without over-stretching defense budgets. NATO leaders are expected to discuss the prospects of building such a defense at a November summit in Riga, Latvia. NATO is already working to develop a multimillion-euro defense system designed to provide battlefield protection to troops threatened with missile attack. The system is expected to be fully operational by 2012.
        It was also announced yesterday that Russia and NATO will conduct joint theater missile defense exercises in October. According to General Yury Baluyevsky, Russian Army Chief of Staff, “This is one of the areas where we see concrete results that satisfy both Russia and NATO.” Last year, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov spoke at a session of the Russia-NATO Council, where he stressed the need to boost cooperation between Russia and NATO in the theater missile defense area.  (Link) 

» Voice of America: NATO Official on missile threat to Europe; defenses said feasible

» More stories on: Allies, European Missile Defenses, Russia, Testing - Russia/NATO

Putin Aide Expresses Concern Over U.S. Conventionally Armed ICBMs

Sergei Sobyanin, chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressed his concern today over reports that U.S. will deploy conventional warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to Sobyanin, the U.S. is making an “irresponsible decision,” that could provoke an inappropriate response from another nuclear power that could launch a full-scale counterattack using strategic nuclear forces:

It is not the missiles themselves that worry us, but the consequences. You can imagine a missile is launched, especially from a submarine … and no one knows what kind of warhead is on that missile. A nuclear power could respond inadequately to such a missile launch … The issue somehow went away after the Soviet Union ceased to exist, now it seems [the U.S.] thinks such a theme is not necessary, there are no problems. But the problem exists and it’s necessary to conduct a dialogue on it.

        

        Sobyanin was referring to the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review, released in February, which announced that the U.S. would convert some submarine-launched Trident missiles to carry conventional instead of nuclear warheads in order to enable the U.S. to respond adequately to a wider range of global threats. His comments follow President Putin’s statement yesterday that “it is premature to speak of the end of the arms race.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Pakistan Tests Hatf-6 for Second Time in Two Weeks

Pakistan tested its Hatf-6 (Shaheen-2) intermediate-range ballistic on May 6 for the second time in two weeks. The Hatf-6 is a two-stage solid fuel missile with a range of over 2,000 km and is capable of carrying nuclear or conventional weapons. According to a Pakistani military spokesman, Saturday’s test was carried out to confirm the missile’s ability to fulfill additional technical parameters beyond those achieved in previous tests. The test came two days after Pakistan and India concluded a three-day session of negotiations in Islamabad to discuss confidence-building measures. However, the two nations failed to reach an agreement on reducing the risk of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. The previous test of the Haft-6 took place and April 29. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Pakistan, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Hatf 6

Putin: Arms Race Not Over

In an hour-long speech today, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the U.S.-Russian arms race is not over and called for a strengthening of his nation’s nuclear and conventional forces. His remarks followed sharp criticism from the U.S., in particular Vice President Dick Cheney, who accused Moscow of stifling democracy and using its vast energy resources as a tool for “intimidation and blackmail” against its neighbors. In response, Putin accused Washington of exerting unwarranted pressure on Moscow, and stated that Russia needs to catch up with the U.S. in order to resist foreign demands: “We must always be ready to counter any attempts to pressure Russia in order to strengthen positions at our expense. The stronger our military is, the less temptation there will be to exert such pressure on us.” Putin noted that Russia would soon deploy mobile Topol-M (SS-27) intercontinental ballistic missiles and Bulava (SS-NX-30) submarine-launched ballistic missiles, thus strengthening its nuclear deterrent. He added that Moscow would not repeat “the mistakes of the Soviet Union and of the Cold War” by draining the country’s resources, a reference to the Kremlin’s inability to keep up with U.S. arms spending during the Reagan administration. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6, SS-26

Silos Tested in Advance of Summer GMD Launches

Boeing recently completed silo modification tests for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, clearing the way for a flight test this summer. The tests validated the lateral supports, which stabilize the interceptors inside the silos, as well as the silo closure mechanism, or clamshell doors. The tests were first conducted on a test silo in Huntsville, Alabama, and then verified at the Ronald W. Reagan Missile Defense Site at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The ground-based interceptors themselves were not included in the tests. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Vandenberg Air Force Base

Newspaper Profiles Topol-M History

The Russian newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda recently profiled the Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM, outlining the production history and key features of Russia’s most advanced missile system, which began in 1991. In particular, the article discusses the rationale behind the missile’s structural design, which from the beginning seems to have been intended to defeat missile defense systems:

It was necessary to create a structural design which, for the first time in Russian and world practice, would make it possible to resolve a number of difficult tasks. It was required to develop a standardized missile, with respect to the various types of bases [for ICBMs], which would have the same high combat qualities as silo-based ICBMs and mobile ground-based ICBMs using self-propelled wheeled launchers, the highest precision in firing and the ability for long combat duty in various degrees of combat-readiness, a level of stability under the effect of destructive factors during flight that is higher than that of any of the previously developed ICBMs and adaptability to the situation should an enemy deploy various types of ABM systems against it.

        

        The article also discusses the enormous challenges faced by the Russian military-industrial complex following the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union and the subsequent economic collapse. Missile plants were faced with limited funding, low pay, loss of a number of qualified personnel who moved from state employment to the private sector, and wear and tear on existing equipment and machinery. To overcome these obstacles, the Russians were forced to use resource-saving technologies, such as making the new Topol-M missiles compatible with Cold War-era silo launchers.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6

Missile Tests at Kapustin Yar Profiled

The number of missile tests at Russia’s Kapustin Yar Missile Test Complex has increased in recent years, according to a recent profile by Interfax-AVN. The report quotes Colonel Aleksandr Vovk, head of the Strategic Missile Troops press service, who stated that “the year 2004 saw 173 test programmes, while in 2005 the number was 205, [and] as for 2006, we have 221 tests in plans.” According to Vovk, 22 tests are currently underway. In recent years, Kapustin Yar has been the site of the official trials of the Iskander-M missile system, as well as tests of the S-400 (SA-20 Triumf) surface-to-air missile system. The facilities include a research and development center for the Strategic Missile Troops, a weapons development center for the Land Forces, an interagency air-defense research and development center, and a missile defense test center. Kapustin Yar will mark its 60th anniversary on Saturday. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

» Missile system details for: Kapustin Yar Missile Test Complex

Lockheed Martin Contract for PAC-3 Upgrades, 112 Interceptors

The U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command has awarded Lockheed Martin a $379 million contract for the production of 112 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles and upgrades to PAC-3 launchers. Production of all equipment will take place at facilities in Dallas and Lufkin, Texas, and Camden, Arkansas. The PAC-3 is a hit-to-kill theater air defense missile, capable of destroying tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and fixed and rotary winged aircraft. It was battle-tested during the 2003 Iraq War, when all engaged targets were destroyed. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Thayer on a Summary of Missile Defense Programs

“It’s not perfect, not yet, but we are closing in on a reliable defense to ballistic missile attack,” writes James Thayer in The Weekly Standard. While national attention is focused on the nuclear threat from Iran, MDA continues to develop and deploy systems that will knock out enemy warheads. The Pentagon is currently deploying ground-based midcourse interceptors in Alaska and California, Standard Missile-3 interceptors on Aegis-equipped warships, and a host of radars and sensors to detect and track incoming threats. It is also developing the Airborne Laser, the Theater High Altitude Area Defense, the Medium Extended Air Defense System, and other such systems. The end result is that the U.S. will soon have an integrated system of air, land, sea, and space-based missile defense assets. In addition, the Pentagon has secured critical BMD partners such as Japan, Australia, Great Britain, Israel, Germany, Italy, and possibly Canada, India, and Poland, ensuring that its initiatives have lasting international support.
        Thayer notes, however, that domestic opposition to ballistic missile defense remains strong. The “scoffing” that began in the early 1980s, when Ronald Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative, continues to this day unabated. MDA’s initiatives are routinely questioned, ridiculed, and condemned in the editorial pages of major U.S. newspapers and magazines. Self-proclaimed “watchdog” organizations such as the Union of Concerned Scientists frequently claim that there is “no basis for believing the system will have any capability to defend against real attack.” Even prominent individuals have jumped on the anti-BMD bandwagon, such as Eugene Habiger, former head of U.S. Strategic Command, who recently announced, “A system is being deployed that doesn’t have any credible capability.” If one were to pay attention to the rhetoric, it would appear as if missile defense is on its death bed.
        Yet the evidence is clear that U.S. BMD is making progress, and is well on its way to becoming a reality. Soon, the U.S. will have a credible, reliable defense against ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads deployed by rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea, or even transnational terrorist organizations emanating from the Middle East and elsewhere. In the post-Cold War era, when such entities are not restrained by abstract, academic balance-of-power theories, such as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), missile defense has become justifiable and inevitable. In response to those who oppose the creation of a national missile defense, Thayer writes, “Star Wars is here, now.” Assets are already in place; more will come, provided the political will is present. (Article, Link) 

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Indian Missile Intercepted in Test Using Israeli Barak

The Indian Navy successfully tested its Israeli-made Barak anti-missile interceptors on Saturday as part of war maneuvers in the Arabian Sea. During the tests, Ganga-class missile corvettes launched surface-to-surface missiles, which were then tracked and destroyed by Barak interceptors. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Admiral Arun Prakash, Naval Chief of Staff, were on hand to witness the demonstrations. The Barak interceptors, which have been installed on seven of its frontline warships, are part of a larger push by New Delhi to create a multi-layered missile defense shield. India has continued to express some interest in purchasing either land-based PAC-3 interceptors from the U.S. or S-300 interceptors from Russia. (Article, Link) 

» Description of Israeli Barak Ship-Based Anti-Missile System

» February 7, 2006: Defense Industry Daily: India and Israel to Cooperate on Barak SAM Project

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BMD as Koizumi’s Heritage for Japan

Japan is now America’s “most important global ally in the development of global missile defense” largely due to the efforts of Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, writes the UPI’s Martin Sieff. Koizumi is required to step down in September as leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and as prime minister after five years in the top job, but “the ballistic missile defense alliance he has fashioned with the United States will live on after him.” No other U.S. ally can compare to the financial and industrial resources Japan now brings to BMD development. Japan is assisting in the development of the sea-based Aegis ballistic missile defense system; its industries are shortly expected to begin building Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor missiles; and it has expressed its eagerness to explore airborne laser technologies. Sieff predicts that close cooperation between Japan and the U.S. will continue for many years, as the joint development programs offer a “potential bonanza” of access to cutting edge technology for Japan’s major industries. In addition, BMD has repeatedly proven popular with the Japanese public, so much that “post-Koizumi governments that might otherwise be tempted to cut back on them risk being punished in the voting booths if they do so.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Analysis, Japan

» Missile system details for: Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense

Report: China Has 130 Nuclear Weapons

A new report by the Natural Resources Defense Council estimates that China has 130 nuclear warheads, which could be delivered by land-based missiles, sea-based missiles, and bombers. It notes that “additional warheads are thought to be in storage for a total stockpile of approximately 200 warheads,” but acknowledges a large number of “unknowns” about China’s nuclear programs. The NRDC assessment cites the Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military power as well as a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement from 2004. (Article, Link) 

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NYT on Starfire ASAT Laser

The Pentagon is developing a ground-based laser weapon that uses beams of concentrated light to destroy enemy satellites in orbit, writes William J. Broad in the New York Times. The project, known as Starfire, uses small lasers to create artificial stars close to the intended target, and then measures the images of these artificial stars to correct for atmospheric turbulence, the distortions in visible light that cause stars to twinkle. Starfire then shoots focused beams of laser light skyward, using a large mirror 11.5 feet in diameter. The project is said to be operated from an unclassified government observatory in the New Mexico desert. Several tests have apparently already taken place in which Starfire used weak lasers to illuminate satellites. The Pentagon hopes to eventually develop a laser powerful enough for use against enemy satellites.
        In January 2001, a commission led by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld warned that the U.S. military could face a potential “Pearl Harbor” in space, and called for the development of a defensive arsenal of space weapons. The Starfire project is part of that effort. No treaty or law forbids such work, although last week Republicans and Democrats on the House Armed Services subcommittee moved unanimously to cut research money for the project in the administration’s budget for the 2007 fiscal year. Broad quotes congressional aides as stating that the move reflected a “bipartisan consensus for moving cautiously on space weaponry, a potentially controversial issue that has yet to be much debated.” (Article, Link) 

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MDA Conducts Second Critical Measurements/Countermeasures Test From Hawaii

On April 28, MDA conducted the second test of its Critical Measurements/Countermeasures Program, launching an Orbital SR19 long-range target missile from the Pacific Missile Range in Hawaii. The test was designed to evaluate missile defense sensors in a complex controlled environment. According to MDA Director Henry “Trey” Obering, the SR19’s payload included complex countermeasures, a mock reentry vehicle, an on-board sensor package, and a number of missile defense-related experiments. The test successfully collected radar and optical data that will be used for the design and improvement of missile defense interceptor and sensor systems. The last Critical Measurements/Countermeasures test was conducted on April 13. (Article, Link) 

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Cruise Missile Threat a “Front Burner Issue”

The threat of attack from cruise missiles launched from commercial ships is becoming a “front burner issue” in Washington, according to Ben Stubenberg, chief of analysis and scenarios at MDA. At a recent conference in Virginia, Stubenberg said that ship-launched cruise missiles offer potential adversaries “great strength at a low cost,” similar to improvised explosive devices (IEDs) used by insurgents in Iraq. Nearly 1,000 commercial vessels sail within 200 nautical miles of the U.S. coast every day, and the potential for a rogue vessel to slip in unnoticed remains “high.” Stubenberg offered a hypothetical example: A enemy ship could depart from a small port in Southeast Asia, one of nearly 11,000 ports not rigorously monitored, and head across the Pacific Ocean to Ensenada, a small port in Mexico. From there, the enemy ship would be in missile range of downtown Los Angeles, which currently has no means of defense against such an attack. Stubenberg offered three possible solutions: deploy of a coastal network of sensors and interceptors to shoot down missiles, strengthen intelligence to allow rogue vessels to be taken down before they reach U.S. shores, and expand U.S. missile defense capabilities.
        The ship-launched cruise missile threat was first identified by the 1998 Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, also known as the Rumsfeld Commission. The initiative was placed on the “back burner” for some time, but has now assumed greater importance with Congress requesting more studies and MDA showing greater interest.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Cruise Missile Defenses, Ship-Launched Threat