MissileThreat.com

Sixth Anniversary of North Korean ICBM Launch

Six years ago today, in 1998, North Korea surprised the world with the launch of long range Taepo Dong I missile, which traveled over Japan and eventually fell into the Pacific. Mainstream intelligence analysts were flummoxed; since North Korea had hitherto only tested its much more primitive No Dong missile, they were not considering other possibilities. Thus providing an example of what the 9-11 Commission would later term a “failure of imagination.”
        In fact, the launch was of an SLV, a space launch vehicle, designed to put into orbit a small radio broadcasting the immortal hymns of Kim Jong Il. This simply means that the missile was put on a slightly different trajectory, to go into orbit rather than deliver a warhead to another spot on the ground. That the launch failed did not diminish the importance of the test for military applications, showing that North Korea had the capability for long range missiles—even if in this case the final stage did not reach orbit.
        The launch did not come as a complete surprise to all parties, however, especially the nine members of the Rumsfeld Commission, who just weeks before had completed their report warning that a rogue nation could deploy an intercontinental range missile—the Taepo Dong I classified as such, by virtue of its range—within five years of doing so, if only by strapping together smaller and fairly primitive Scud missiles. The test, in combination with the Rumsfeld Committee’s bold but unanimous report, were instrumental in reenergizing the push for missile defenses. The next year, Congress passed and Clinton signed H.R. 4—”The National Missile Defense Act of 1999”—into law, which stated that it is the policy of the United States to deploy a missile defense as soon as technologically feasible. Clinton signed the law because it was politically impossible to do otherwise. While the law stated that missile defenses should be deployed when technologically feasible, Clinton added four reasons that would guide any decision about whether or not to deploy, namely four good enough excuses to provide a basis for why he would not carry this law into execution. The same law is frequently cited as the basis for the Bush administrations beginning to deploy a limited system in Alaska, due later this year if all goes as planned. (Link) 

» Rumsfeld Report text

» National Missile Defense Act of 1999 text

» More stories on: North Korea

» Missile details: Taep'o-dong 1 SLV, Taep'o-dong 1

Aegis System Undergoes Land Based Test

The Aegis sea-based missile defense system underwent a test that is being described as a significant marker to its ability to track and eventually destroy ballistic missile targets. The test took place on land at the U.S. Navy Combat System Engineering Development Site, on August 27. No actual targets were launched, but the test rather consisted of simulations in conjunction with the Ground Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system which includes the systems at Fort Greely Alaska, and the Command and Control Center in Colorado. According to a report issued by Lockheed about the test, some fifteen Aegis destroyers and three Aegis cruisers will eventually be equipped with the system within the next few years. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Sea-Based Systems, Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Currie on Kerry’s Missile Defense Record

Duncan Currie, editorial assistant of the Weekly Standard, has a very fine piece outlining Presidential Candidate John Kerry’s record on missile defense, from his opposition to Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative to his current pronouncements that he would significantly scale back the work being done on missile defense in Alaska, with budget cuts that would paralyze the system at best, and more likely set back any real deployment for at least another four years. Currie correctly notes that “It is no exaggeration to say the future of national missile defense (NMD) hinges on November’s presidential election.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

India and Israel to Cooperate on Long Range Missiles

India and Israel could cooperate to jointly produce a long range ballistic missile, according to an India’s chief military scientist Dr. V.K. Atre. “Wherever they have strengths, we want to jointly develop the missiles so that both countries can benefit and share designs, costs and risks,” Atre said at a news conference in Hyderabad. Discussions for the joint project are said to have begun in 2003.
        India has already begun to acquire two Phalcon systems, which are used for early warning and detection of ballistic missile launches, such as those by Pakistan and China.
        Another news report two days ago also quoted Atre as saying that India may begin work on missile defense systems, in which Israel also has much experience.  (Article, Link) 

» Israeli Missile Systems

» Israeli Missile Defense Systems

» Mar. 18: India buys Phalcon, Considers Israeli Arrow, U.S. Patriot, Russian S-300

» More stories on: India, Israel

Photos Indicate Improvements to Iranian Shahab-3

Photographs of the Iranian Shahab-3 missile recently published in Iranian newspapers indicate that the warhead has undergone improvements. The photographs reportedly indicate that the missile’s warhead has a flatter shape, which would cause it to re-enter the atmosphere more slowly, allowing its contents to be better protected, important in the case of a chemical warhead. The Israeli Ha’aretz newspaper describes the improvements as characterizing “a daring approach to their technological planning,” and notes that “It is very likely that the Iranians are being assisted by foreign experts from the former Soviet Union hired by Iran under personal contracts, or by experts from North Korea.” The photographs also reportedly indicate that “various short wings” are added on the warhead itself, possibly to aid in re-entry. (Article, Link) 

» Washington Times on Shahab-3 warhead improvements

» More stories on: Iran, Technology

» Missile details: Shahab-3

India Tests Agni II Missile; Report of Indian Missile Defense Work

India today test launched its short range, nuclear capable Agni II ballistic missile. The missile was described in an Indian press release as having a range of 2,500 km, having a payload capacity of 1,000 kilograms, and the capability to be launched on either road or rail mobile launchers.
        The Agni II was launched from a mobile launcher on Wheeler Island, near the eastern Orissa state. While the missile was described as having a range of 2,500 km, this particular test had the missile deliver its payload to a site only 1,200 km away. In fact, the Agni II has been estimated as having a range between 3,000 and 3,500 km.
        The test marked the third test of the missile, developed by India’s Defense Research Development Organization. The two previous tests reportedly took place on April 11, 1999 and January 17, 2001. The missile was also described as having a length of twenty meters and a launch weight of 16 metric tons.
        In addition, the PTI news agency in New Delhi reports that India has already begun to operationally deploy both its 700km-range Agni I missiles, and the 2500km range Agni II missiles. (In fact, around 5 Agni II missiles may already have been deployed since 2001; moreover, the Agni I designation most likely refers to what is also known as the “Agni Short Range,” or “Agni SR”; the original “Agni I” program was terminated.) The newly deployed missiles will join the short range Prithvi missiles already in service. India’s “top scientist Dr. V.K. Atre” is cited for the deployment announcement, saying that “We have completely developed systems for these two missiles and a certain number of them have been delivered to the army.” The first test of the much longer range Agni III missile is also expected later this year, according to Indian reports.
        The same news item, however, also indicates that India is working on its own missile defenses:

Retiring after a tenure of over five years in the top post, Atre said that along with developing short, medium and longer range missiles, Indian scientists were also working on developing an anti-missile defence system as well as airborne early warning system.

        India has previously expressed interest in purchasing U.S., Russian, and even Israeli missile defense systems, but this is perhaps the first report that India may have its own programs. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: India, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Agni, Agni-2

Russia’s New Iskander Missile; Response to America’s Patriot?

Testing for a new Iskander missile has been completed, reports the Russian news agency, RIA Novosti.
        President Putin is said to have asked Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov if the missile can be deployed quickly. Ivanov replied that it could be. Similar news reports suggest that the military may adopt the missile in 2005.
        The relation of the “new” missile is unclear, however, to the much older SS-X-26 known as “Stone,” “Tender,” and “Iskander-E” (the export version, already marketed to a number of countries, including Syria and Iran). As noted in the 2001 National Intelligence Estimate on the foreign ballistic missile threat, the SS-21 (Tochka) and the SS-26 (Iskander) have both already been serving Russia well for its short range nuclear arsenal: “The SS-21 and SS-26 SRBMs provide Russian general-purpose ground forces with a rapid, precision-guided, theater deep-strike capability.” There was a report in October 2003, however, that the SS-26 Iskander missile was undergoing improvements.
        The new Iskander is said to be capable of carrying either a nuclear or a conventional warhead. It was also described as a successor to the SS-21B “Tochka-U.” Unlike Tochka, however, the new Iskander system is said to have two missiles rather than one.
        Channel One TV in Moscow gave a few more details of Iskander missile, which is describes as a “new generation weapon,” a “closely guarded secret,” and employing “stealth technology.”
        Also of interest are the potential targets listed for the missile. These are said to include “missile systems, long-range artillery, aircraft at airfields, air defence and anti-missile defence systems and communications control centres” (emphasis added). The broadcast continued to say that “the system’s specifications show that the promising American air defence missile system, Patriot, will be unable to match Iskander.”
        Could the Iskander be designed to destroy deployments of Patriot batteries? If so, marketing it to Syria and Iran would seem to indicate a clear purpose of negating America’s own attempts to counter the menace of those countries’ ballistic missile arsenals.
        Moscow television news report also included a list of the missile’s characteristics:

Flight range: 280 km; Launch weight of missile: 3,800 kg; Warhead mass: 480 kg; Warhead type: cluster (54 submunitions), fragmentation-high explosive, penetrating; Number of missiles on launcher: two

        The payload weight of 480kg would correspond to the previously known weights of the SS-X-26, but the reported range could indicate slight differences. Minister Ivanov is quoted as saying that the new Iskander has an effective range of up to 300 km, while also noting that it is a “high-precision missile.” Moreover, versions of the older Iskander had a range of between 280 (export version) and 400 km (Russian version).  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-21 B, SS-26

THEL Laser Interception Test Successful

While Israel’s second test of the Arrow-2 interceptor resulted in a failure to destroy an air launched target, a test of the Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser (MTHEL) was successful, developer Northrop Grumman today announced.
       The test took place at White Sands Missile Range on August 24, and was against not ballistic missiles but smaller mortar rounds. The press release notes that “as the nation’s only laser weapon, the THEL testbed has shot down a variety of threats since 2000, showing its versatility by destroying about three dozen targets, ranging from Katyusha rockets to artillery shells and large-caliber rockets, and now mortar threats as well.”
        The success of the THEL against such smaller threats should point, however, to the potential against larger missiles. Whether based in the air, on land, or in space, the potential for high energy defenses which operate at the speed of light is unmatched by any countermeasure technology.  (Article, Link) 

» Northrop Grumman press release

» More stories on: High Energy Defenses

» Missile system details for: Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Israeli Arrow Test Fails

Although a test of the Arrow-2 interceptor on July 29 resulted in the successful destruction of an actual Scud-B missile, another attempt today showed the Arrow unable to destroy a target made to simulate the more sophisticated Iranian Shahab-3.
        Chris Taylor, spokesman for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency which is jointly developing the Arrow with Israel, commented that “The engineers don’t yet know what happened.”
        The test, the 13th Arrow intercept test and the eighth test of the complete weapon system, was against an air-launched target, dropped from a C-17 aircraft, made to simulate a missile similar to a threat Israel could face.
        The target was dropped 360 miles west-northwest of San Nicolas Island, after which its booster ignited. The arrow Green Pine radar picked up the target, and the Arrow interceptor was launched from San Nicolas.
        According to Israeli news sources, the test involved a missile with dual warheads, one actual and one “dummy,” and although the Arrow accurately discerned the actual warhead it failed to intercept it.  (More »»») 

» MDA press release

» More stories on: Israel, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: Arrow

China to Purchase up to Eight Additional S-300 Air and Missile Defense Batteries

Russia and China are expected to sign another arms deal later this year, by which China will purchase an additional four to eight S-300PMU air and missile defenses to China. The deal is worth between 450 and 900 million dollars—the more advanced S-300PMUs, known in the West as the SA-10, reportedly sell for over 100 million per battery. The S-300P has both air and missile defense capabilities.
        The contract is said to have been initialed by Russia’s arms export company, Rosoboronexport, and the S-300 PMU will be built by the Almaz-Antey company. Russia previously sold eight S-300 systems to China in 1993. An additional four batteries from a 2002 contract were delivered earlier this year.
        The Saint Petersburg Times and the Moscow Vedomosti news service cite Russian experts who suggest that the interceptors may be used to defend the cities of Beijing and Shanghai, reasoning that the previously sold batteries would probably provide insufficient coverage, and others which suggest that the sale could indicate that China’s development of its own reverse-engineered system, the HQ-9 and similar systems, has not yet reached adequate readiness. Given the many strategic targets China would like to protect, however, this is not necessarily the case. China’s “redundant” acquisition and development programs are also well known.
        Both newspapers also noted that defense sources were very tight lipped about the sale because of an agreement which makes arms sales between Russia and China classified information. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Chinese Missile Defenses, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: Hongqi-9 (HQ-9), S-300P (SA-10 Grumble)

Belarus Conducts S-300 Air and Missile Defense Exercise in Russia

Some 800 Belarussian troops are engaged in a military exercise in Russia, at the Ashuluk training ground in the Astrakhan region, which includes the testing of the S-300P and S-300V, which are both dual purpose air and missile defense systems. The exercise, begun on August 14, will continue until August 29. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Former Soviet Republics, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

China Source for Missile Technology to Iran

Bill Gertz of the Washington Times reports that according to U.S. officials, a Chinese company has supplied missile technology to Iran, despite Chinese treaty obligations and promises to the contrary.
        Gertz reports that “the transfers took place within the past six months and represent a continuation of past Chinese covert arms transfers to countries such as Iran and Pakistan.”
        Gertz cites the recent report by the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission as naming a number of Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles which have been sold to Iran. These included “a number CSS-8 and DF-15 ballistic missiles to Iran, along with cruise missiles identified as HY-1, HY-2 Silkworm, C-201, C-601, C-801 and C-802.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Iran, Proliferation

Russia Set to Deploy S-400 in 2005; Upgrades in Response to U.S. Defenses

Colonel General Yuriy Solovyev, commander of the Moscow’s air defense, told a news conference on August 18 of plans to upgrade and reorganize the Moscow air and missile defense systems, notably remarking that Russia’s most advanced system, the S-400, would be deployed in 2005. (More »»») 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

Rumsfeld Speaks at Space and Missile Defense Conference

Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld spoke to the seventh annual Space and Missile Defense Conference, held in Huntsville, Alabama, where he spoke of the importance of missile defense and the plans for deployment in the coming months.
        Among other things, Rumsfeld noted that “History has taught us that weakness is provocative,” and warned that some two dozen countries currently have ballistic missiles and other WMD programs, including North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran.
        Rumsfeld noted that the United States would have a limited defense by the end of the year, but stressed the importance that it continue to evolve to match the growing capabilities of those countries, terrorists, and other extremists who threaten America.
        Perhaps most importantly, however, is that Rumsfeld apparently repeated his previous observations about the threat from a ship-launched ballistic missile. Gertz and Scarborough in the August 27 edition of Inside the Ring report the following from Rumsfeld:

Mr. Rumsfeld also was asked about the danger of terrorists or rogue states attacking the United States by putting a short-range Scud-type missile on a freighter and firing it close to U.S. shores.

He said one Middle East nation already has “launched a ballistic missile from a cargo vessel.”

“They had taken a short-range, probably Scud missile, put it on a transporter-erector launcher, lowered it in, taken the vessel out into the water, peeled back the top, erected it, fired it, lowered it, covered it up. And the ship that they used was using a radar and electronic equipment that was no different than 50, 60, 100 other ships operating in the immediate area.”

Other U.S. officials have said the nation was Iran, which tested a freighter-launched missile in the Caspian Sea in the late 1990s.

“It is true that the big distinction we make between intercontinental, medium-range and shorter-range ballistic missiles doesn’t make a lot of sense if you’re going to move the missile closer to the target,” he said.

        These comments repeat almost verbatim his previous report, one month after 9-11, that such a thing had occured, as well as that by Asst. Sec. of Defense Paul Wolfowitz in 2002. (Article, Link) 

» Transcript of Rumsfeld remarks

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Policy, Ship-Launched Threat, Testing - Foreign

Bush: Opponents of Missile Defense “Living in the Past”

Days after John Kerry affirmed that he would substantially cut missile defense funding, President Bush spoke of the need for missile defense at a defense plant in Pennsylvania, by charging that opponents of missile defense are “living in the past.”
        Bush described the initial limited system which will become operational this fall, as “the beginning of a missile defense system that was envisioned by Ronald Reagan—a system necessary to protect us against the threats of the 21st century.” In fact, however, it is much more modest, and would defend only against certain threats from rogue nations, and would not provide a defense against Russian or Chinese missiles, even accidental or unauthorized launches. Bush continued, saying that, “I think those who oppose this ballistic missile system really don’t understand the threats of the 21st century. They’re living in the past. We’re living in the future. We’re going to do what’s necessary to protect this country.”
        The Kerry campaign responded with a statement, that that “despite this Administration’s near obsession with missile defense, the greatest threat facing our homeland comes from terrorists who would do us harm.”
        Of course, terrorists too can acquire ballistic missiles, and the launch of a short range missile from a ship off an American coast requires not only the Alaskan system, but a much more robust and layered defense. The midcourse interceptors to be deployed in Alaska are but the first step.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Test of New Chinese Missile “Completely Successful”

China today announced that it had tested a new guided missile a few days ago, which was a complete success, said to have hit its target “with extreme precision.” The announcement came in a scientist Feng Dawai’s speech commemorating the centenary of Deng Xiaoping’s birth. No other details about the “new” missile were given except that it was developed by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Testing - Foreign

Ivanov: Russia Will Maintain and Expand Nuclear Arsenal

Speaking after a visit with U.S. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov noted that his country will “not only maintain fighting efficiency of the strategic nuclear forces but also develop and upgrade them.” He also noted that Russia would be increasing its military exercises this year, including those of the Strategic Missile Troops.
        Ivanov went on in his interview with Itar Tass to claim that Russia’s exercises are not “as aggressive as they were in the Cold War period, but during a joint press briefing with Secretary Rumsfeld renewed concern about the Greenland Thule radar.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Kerry Would Cut Missile Defense Spending

Presidential candidate John Kerry’s recently released platform statement, “New Military to Meet New Threats,” confirms that a Kerry presidency would be committed to “reducing total expenditures on missile defense.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Russia Concerned about Greenland Radar Upgrade

As Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld travels to Russia to discuss missile defense and other subjects with his Russian counterpart Sergei Ivanov, he is expected to face opposition about the recent agreement to upgrade the Thule radar complex located in Greenland, signed with Denmark on August 6. Russia is concerned that the location of the radar will permit the U.S. to track not only rogue state missile launches, but those of Russia as well, which could potentially allow the U.S. some chance of intercepting Russian ICBMs.
        Interfax quoted an unidentified Russian defense official as saying that “These actions directly affect Russia’s security interests”—even though Russia frequently maintains that it has the capabilities to penetrate U.S. missile defenses. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Russia, Detection and Tracking

New Russian Missile Interceptor Announced

Russia’s newest air and missile defense system, called the Samoderzhets (Emperor), is “unbeatable” and surpasses the American Patriot system dramatically, boasts Russian designers at the Almaz and Antei defense companies, reports the Russian newspaper, Vremya Novostei.
        The Samoderzhets apparently combines the longer range of the S-300VM system and the advanced technology of the S-400.
        The Samoderzhets system could be the same “fifth generation” system as that referenced in a January report in Voyennykh Novostey, which quoted Antei designers saying that the new system would be available by 2012. (Article, Link) 

» Jan. 27, 2004: Fifth generation Russian interceptors by 2012

» Russian defense budget to increase 40% in 2005

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant), S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

PAC-3 to go to Allies by End of 2004

The sale of the Advanced Capability-3 version of the Patriot Interceptor will likely be arranged with a number of other countries by year’s end, according to a report from Lockheed Martin and the Department of Defense. The sale of the PAC-3 has been discussed with a number of Middle Eastern and European countries, but the most likely prospects in 2004 are Japan, Taiwan, and the Netherlands. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

Russia Ships S-300P Missiles to China

Russia shipped four batteries of its advanced air and missile defense system, the S-300PMU1, to neighboring China earlier on August 5, notes Geostrategy-direct, citing an Interfax press report. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Chinese Missile Defenses, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble)

Iran Tests Upgraded Shahab-3

Iran today tested what it describes as the most recent version of the already deployed Shahab-3 missile. With a range of 1,300km, the missile threatens all of Israel and some U.S. military bases in the Mideast region. The test closely follows upon Israel’s July 29 test of its Arrow II missile interceptor, which it hopes will protect it against especially the Iranian Shahab-3.
        Iran has recently renewed its pledge to wipe Israel “off the map.” The ISNA students news agency quoted Revolutionary Guard Commander Yahya Rahim Safavi as commenting today that the “If Israel behaves like a lunatic and attacks the Iranian nation’s interests, we will come down on their heads like a mallet and break their bones.” The Revolutionary Guard has direct control of the Shahab missile systems.
        Israel defense sources report that Tehran is also developing a “Shahab-4” missile with a range of 1,700 km, but Iran may be adding the additional range to the so-called improved Shahab-3, while understating its potential, and, by keeping the same name, not attract further international scrutiny.  (Article, Link) 

» Debka on Shahab-3 program

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4

Russia Launches SS-19

Russia today tested an RS-18 (SS-19) ICBM, reported by the Russian State news agency Itar-Tass as the 70th test launch of the massive strategic weapon, but by Interfax as having been closer to the 90th. The missile is capable of being armed with six independently targetable nuclear warheads, and has a range of over 10,000km. The successful test launch from the Baikonur cosmodrome was described in the press briefing as having accurately hit its target in the Kamchatka missile range some 6,700km away, located in far eastern Russia.
        Interfax notes that this launch was the fifth this year by the Strategic Missile Forces, and cites Strategic Missile Force Commander Colonel General Nikolai Solovtsov as saying that a total of ten missile launches have been scheduled for 2004. This number most likely does not, however, include the three launches thus far this year of the short range but nuclear capable SS-21 Tochka, most recently launched eight days ago, on August 3.
        The first test of the SS-19 is said to have taken place at the Baikonur space center in 1973. The SS-19s are reported to be currently in service with the Tatishchevo and the Kozelsk Strategic Missile Forces units.
        A report by Interfax seems to indicate that the launch was of the more recently modified version labeled the “RS-18B,” which probably corresponds to the NATO designation SS-19 Mod 2. Moreover, the Interfax description of the characteristics of the SS-19 launched also matches those of the SS-19 Mod 2: “a range of over 10,000 km; a launch weight of 105.6 tons; a length of 24 m; a diameter of 2.5 m; two stages; a MIRV warhead, liquid-state propellant boosters; gas-dynamic launch from a silo.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-19 Mod 1, SS-19 Mod 2

Hackett on Iran

In June, 1981, Israeli jets crossed into Iraq airspace and destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor, before it could come online. Iran has since replaced Iraq as Israel’s chief threat, and has nearly completed work on its own nuclear reactor, with significant help from Russia. The time is now right for a preemptive strike against Iran, notes James Hackett writing in the Washington Times. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran

Taiwan VP: Chinese Missiles Aimed at Taiwan Will Reach 800 by 2005

Taiwanese Vice President Annette Lu stated yesterday that China will have 800 ballistic missiles aimed at the tiny island nation by 2005, in response to criticisms of a previous, controversial, statement, that the two nations were in a state of “quasi-war.”
        The number 800 represents a significant increase from previous statements, such as that by President Chen last November and U.S. intelligence estimates earlier this year, which put the number of missiles deployed at 500. Lu’s statement, reported by Reuters, was that, “Mainland China has accelerated its missile deployment. By next year, the number of missiles will likely reach 800 and it is growing at a speed faster than we have expected.” U.S. intelligence have put the rate of China’s deployment of additional missiles at 75 per year, but Lu’s claim could represent a significant acceleration.  (Article, Link) 

» Aug. 6, 2004: PRC lobby gets Taiwanese flag, anthem, advertising banned from Olympics

» More stories on: China, Proliferation, Taiwan

U.S. Official: Iran Acting as Proxy to Test North Korean Missiles

An unnamed U.S. administration official was quoted by the Associated Press as stating on August 5 that North Korea has been using Iran as a proxy to circumvent a supposed self-imposed moratorium on missile testing. The comment comes days after heavy press attention to reports of North Korea’s deploying two new missile systems.
        The report also repeats an earlier, similar, story from May, that Iran was supplying North Korea with testing data.  (Article, Link) 

» May 28, 2004: North Korean moratorium meaningless, if Iran sharing test data

» August 3, 2004: North Korea deploying two versions of new missile

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea

Canada Agrees to NORAD Change to Accommodate Missile Defense

While still insisting it will not yet agree to be partied to the United States missile defense system, Canada has agreed to a change in the NORAD structure required for the operation of missile defenses, soon to be deployed. Canada’s consent permits the U.S. to feed data from the early warning system to would-be interceptors. Defense Minister Bill Graham insisted that Canada’s decision to go along had to be made to protect Canada’s participation in NORAD, saying that the U.S. was prepared to construct a parallel warning system without Canada if necessary, a course which would have rendered NORAD “obsolete.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

President Bush Signs Defense Bill, With 10 Billion for Missile Defense

President Bush today signed a $391 billion dollar defense appropriations bill for fiscal 2005, which included some 10 billion dollars for ballistic missile defense. The level of funding is comparable to that of last year. His signing comments included the following:

This bill provides $10 billion for systems to defend against the threat from ballistic missiles. Later this year, the first components of America’s missile defense system will become operational. This will fulfill a pledge I made to the American people more than four years ago. America and our allies face a deadly threat from ballistic missiles armed with the world’s most dangerous weapons. And we will deploy the technologies necessary to protect our people.

 (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Two Additional Patriot Batteries to go to South Korea

Soldiers departing from the U.S. Camp Casey in Dongducheon, north of Seoul, South Korea, will soon be replaced by a Patriot missile defense unit from Fort Bliss, Texas. Five hundred troops from the 35th Air Defense Artillery Brigade will man the units, to be stationed in Osan. Two Patriot brigades will be added, bringing the total batteries of Patriots in South Korea to eight. Each Patriot battery has six to eight launchers; each launcher can hold four PAC-2 missiles or 16 PAC-3 missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

» Missile system details for: Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2), Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)

KEI as a Multipurpose Weapon

Richard C. Barnard, editor of Sea Power, discusses in the most recent issue of the publication the future of the Kinetic Energy Interceptor as a “multipurpose” missile defense weapon—for use in not only the boost or ascent phase, but the midcourse phase as well. While the KEI was initially sold as a boost phase interceptor, it is now considering midcourse interception. Whereas boost phase interception would require extremely high speeds to “catch up” with a missile in a very short span of time, an interception in midcourse gives a longer span of time, allowing the same missile to proceed at a slower pace, thus also extending its range.
        As a midcourse phase interceptor, the KEI could possibly be based aboard submarines or Aegis cruisers, though such possibilities would probably not be feasible until several years after the 2010 scheduled feasibility for the land based version. Barnard cites Terry Little, the KEI program director, as saying that a single battery of ten KEI interceptors stationed in Italy could, as a midcourse interceptor, protect all of Western Europe, and that another battery based in Norfolk Virginia could defend the entire East Coast from a ship-launched missile, launched between 300 and 1,500 kilometers offshore. Little admitted, however, that the land-based version would be incapable of destroying a missile from a larger country—such as Russia or China—in its boost phase, and that to do so would require a space based laser. (Article, Link) 

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

Chinese Officials Lecture, Warn, Senate Delegation

Two of the most senior Chinese officials saw fit to lecture a United States Senate delegation on U.S. Taiwan relations, hinting at unpleasant consequences of the U.S. supplying of the island nation with defensive arms. On August 4, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told the eight member Senate delegation to China, which included Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, that America should handle the Taiwan issue “cautiously.” The previous day, Chinese President Hu Jintao admonished Senator Stevens that the US should not send “wrong signals” to Taiwan. (Article, Link) 

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New Russian Sub Will Test Bulava Missile System

Russia’s new nuclear submarine, the Dmitri Donskoy, has left for extended trials in the White Sea, reports the Interfax news agency from Russia. After these trials, it will eventually return to the shipyard, and then join the Northern Fleet. Interfax noted that when it does so, it will have had installed the latest Bulava missile system, which will then be tested from the Dmitri Donskoy. The Bulava or SS-NX-30 is the sea-launched equivalent of the SS-27 Topol-M, and is being installed on all new submarines. (Link) 

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» Missile details: SS-NX-30

Jane’s: North Korea Deploying 2,500km Range Missile, Capable of Ship-Launch

Jane’s Defense Weekly reports that North Korea is deploying two different forms of a new missile system, with capabilities to strike both U.S military forces in Guam and Japan and also the continental United States. The new missile is believed to be based primarily upon the Russian R-27/SS-N-6 submarine launched missile, as well as some SS-N-5 technology and assistance from the Russian missile manufacturer VP Makeyev Design Bureau. The land-based mobile version of the missile has an estimated range of missile 2,500-4,000 km, and the submarine- or ship-based version some 2,500 or more.
        Besides the indication of Russian proliferation, the significance of such a ship-launched missile to North Korea is the very scenario so often discussed here on Missilethreat.com: a ship-launched ballistic missile attack upon the United States. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld spoke of such a threat in October 2001, and Assistant Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz has since warned of the same. Such a prospect points to the need for a much more robust missile defense architecture, which includes space based systems. The long range midcourse interceptors to be deployed in Alaska and California would not have sufficient time to meet and destroy such a missile. A space based laser, reacting at the speed of light, is one serious alternative.
        Update: August 4: The Russian Interfax news agency quotes “Admiral Eduard Baltin, ex-commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Hero of the Soviet Union,” as having “ruled out” the possibility of the transfer of Russian SS-N-6 missile technology to North Korea, and calling the reported transfers “absurd.”
        Update: August 5: New York Times coverage of the story cites an unnamed official dismissing concern about the newly deployed missiles: “There is no way this can hit the mainland.” The story improperly dismisses the sea-launched version of the missile, weakly citing “doubts” that its purpose was to be launched from a freighter, and pointing out that North Korea has no submarines. Such slight of hand ignores entirely that there are two versions of the missile, one of which is designed to be launched by sea. The initial report by Jane’s Defense Weekly, cited by the New York Times, had correctly observed that “Both these new land- and sea-based systems appreciably expand the DPRK’s ballistic missile threat…The missile capable of being launched from submarines of ships is potentially the most dangerous.” (Article, Link) 

» AFP summary of Jane’s report

» Globalsecurity.org description of “No Dong B”

» More stories on: North Korea, Proliferation, Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-5, SS-N-6

Russia Launches Tochka-U SS-21

Russian troops today conducted a combat exercise which included the successful launch of the nuclear capable Tochka-U, SS-21, ballistic missile. The missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar firing range. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-21 B

European Union Adopts Weak Stance Toward Syrian Missiles

The European Union is apparently backing down on its negotiating demands that Syria reduce its missile arsenals. The original requirement in a trade agreement would have had Syria reduce both its ballistic missiles and its weapons of mass destruction. The newer, more watered down version, will say nothing about missiles, and ask Syria only to reduce its weapons of mass destruction.
        Time will tell whether such policies of weakness are capable of bringing any good result.  (Article, Link) 

» Iran claims U.S. has backed down on nuclear weapons demands

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