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Rumsfeld Op-ed on Missile Defense

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld today published an op-ed in the Chicago Sun-Times on the current and future status of U.S. ballistic missile defense. The Secretary discussed the current missile threat faced by the U.S., the Bush administration’s rationale for leaving the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the steps currently being taken by the Pentagon to deploy a defensive shield, and the critical role of testing and experimentation. He described, in particular, the changing role of ballistic missile defense in the age of rogue nations, as well as what he sees as the current goal of the system:

… The system being put into place today differs from the all-encompassing “shield” once thought necessary to deflect a massive Soviet missile attack. The program today is more limited in scope, but one that is successfully evolving and expanding over time. The goal is to fashion a system that will be able to engage a volley of several missiles launched by a rogue regime at the United States or its allies.

 (Article, Link) 

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Cooper and Pfaltzgraff on Need for Global, Multi-layered Missile Defense

Deployment of a multi-layered missile defense, including space-based systems, should be an urgent U.S. priority, argues Ambassador Henry F. Cooper and Dr. Robert Pfaltzgraff, in the August 28 edition of The Wall Street Journal. Dr. Pfaltzgraff is president of the Institute of Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies at Tufts University. Ambassador Cooper was the former director of the Strategic Defense Initiative and chief U.S. negotiator to the Geneva Space and Defense Talks, and is currently chairman of High Frontier, a missile defense advocacy group. Both participated in the Independent Working Group, which recently released the report Missile Defense, the Space Relationship and the 21st Century.
        The authors write: “We should make it virtually impossible for any adversary—rogue states, non-state actors and larger strategic competitors—to influence U.S. decisions, or the course of regional conflicts, by threatening to launch missiles with nuclear weapons against the U.S., its deployed forces or its allies.” The U.S. needs a “continuously ready, global, multilayered system to provide multiple shots at attacking missiles and their warheads in all their phases of flight.” Such defenses would make a missile attack against the U.S. an expensive endeavor, and therefore less attractive for enemies to buy the technologies to overcome them. “The ABM Treaty era showed that it is the absence of defenses, rather than their presence, that encourages the development of offensive technologies.” To accomplish this, the U.S. should complete the ground-based sites in Alaska and California but build no additional ground-based sites. Limited resources would be better spent deploying more effective sea- and space-based missile defense components.
        The U.S. has already invested $80 billion in over 80 Aegis-equipped warships armed with Standard Missile-3 interceptors, which provide an effective defense against cruise missiles. An additional investment of $100 million per ship, they write, would enable these flexible platforms to shoot down ballistic missiles, and thus provide an effective near-term defense capability. For a long-term global defense, the U.S. should invest in space-based systems that can intercept ballistic missiles in all phases of flight. The technology already exists in the form of Brilliant Pebbles, a space-based system developed during the Reagan and first Bush administrations but never completed. Brilliant Pebbles consists of a constellation of lightweight satellites that would release watermelon-sized interceptors into the path of the oncoming missiles and destroy them by impact. Cooper and Pfaltzgraff point out that all key technologies for Brilliant Pebbles were proven by the mid-1990s, and that the more advanced technology of today would provide such a system with even greater capabilities.

        The full text: (More »»») 

» Read the 2007 report: The Independent Working Group on Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century (8 MB)

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Brilliant Pebbles

Karako Participates in FrontPage Missile Defense Dialogue

Thomas Karako, director of programs at the Claremont Instiute and editor of Missilethreat.com, recently took part in an online dialogue on missile defense organized by FrontPage Magazine. Karako was joined by Ilan Berman, vice president for policy of the Washington-based American Foreign Policy Council, Jed Babbin, the former deputy undersecretary of defense in the first Bush administration, and Austin Bay, an author and syndicated newspaper columnist. The dialogue concentrated on the current ballistic missile threats facing the U.S., and how to most effectively combat them. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, Policy

Japan Considers Sharp Rise in Missile Defense Spending

Japan’s Defense Agency yesterday requested a more than 50 percent increase in its missile defense budget, reports the AFP. The article quotes an official in the Liberal Democratic Party, who stated that the agency has requested 219 billion yen ($1.87 billion) for missiles defenses, up 56.5 percent from the current year. The increased budget is mainly to pay for the early deployment of more Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptor missiles, but also includes costs for Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors for Aegis-equipped U.S. warships as well as advanced radars and joint research and development with the U.S. on missile interceptors. Japan is moving forward with efforts to build a joint missile defense system with the U.S. following North Korea’s July 5 test launch of seven missiles into the Sea of Japan, including a long-range Taep’o-dong-2. The LDP official notes that the Defense Agency’s proposed total budget for fiscal year 2007 is up 1.5 percent from the current term to 4.86 trillion yen ($4.2 billion). (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Budget, Japan

» Missile system details for: Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense

MDA Speeds Up THAAD Deployment

The Missile Defense Agency plans to speed up testing and deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, reports the UPI. THAAD is a ground-based missile defense system designed to protect forward-deployed troops and population centers from short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. It uses a hit-to-kill, kinetic-energy warhead to intercept missiles during their final phase of flight, either outside the atmosphere or very high up in the atmosphere. Under the MDA’s previous schedule, THAAD would not have been deployable worldwide until fiscal year 2012. Yet according to Army Colonel Charles Driessnack, MDA’s project manager, MDA now plans to run testing activities concurrently in order to eliminate two years from the program and place THAAD in the field at the end of FY 2009 or in early FY 2010. The new timetable is a likely reflection of recent tests successes. This past June, THAAD successfully intercepted a non-separating unitary Hera target, demonstrating its ability to characterize a ballistic missile target in the high-endoatmosphere and destroy it. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile system details for: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

Pentagon May Delay SBIRS to Trim Budget

The Pentagon may delay deployment of the third geosynchronous satellite for the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) program due to budget constraints. SBIRS is intended as a constellation of high-orbiting infrared satellites designed to detect and track ballistic missiles of all sizes. It would include three large satellites that would circle the earth in high geosynchronous orbit, looking for missile launches and other threats. Each satellite would cover about a third of the earth’s surface, with additional help from two smaller polar-orbiting satellites and ground systems. In addition to their primary mission of detecting missile launches, the SBIRS satellites would also have sensors to track moving targets and perform a range of other duties for intelligence analysts and battlefield commanders. SBIRS would replace the aging Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites, which have provided early missile warning information for over 30 years.
        Despite the program’s necessity, SBIRS is now considered a “prime target” as the Pentagon assembles its budget proposal for fiscal year 2008. To make room for more fighters and tankers, the U.S. Air Force may be forced to postpone purchasing the third SBIRS satellite. If the Air Force delays the third SBIRS satellite, it could potentially eliminate about $320 million from its FY 2008 plans and postpone about $1.3 billion in near-term follow-on funding, says defense analyst Jim McAleese of McAleese and Associates, a Washington-area government contracting law firm. Baseline SBIRS research funding on $700 million would probably continue, but purchases and deployments would be postponed, perhaps indefinitely. “The war on terror has significantly changed this administration’s focus on space. The levels of space funding growth that we initially anticipated at the beginning of Donald Rumsfeld’s tenure are not achievable,” McAleese said. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Budget, Policy

» Missile system details for: Space-Based Infrared System-High (SBIRS-High)

Japan Launches Sixth Aegis Warship

Japan today launched its sixth Aegis destroyer, the Ashigara, which will be fitted with anti-missile capabilities next year. The AFP reports that the Ashigara, the heaviest of Japan’s Aegis destroyers, was put to sea from the southwestern port city of Nagasaki amid fears over a possible North Korean missile attack. The Japanese warship will be equipped with U.S.-designed Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors throughout next year, according to a spokesman for the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces. The Ashigara joins the U.S.S. Shiloh guided-missile cruiser, the first U.S. warship to be deployed in Japan with the capability to shoot down short- and medium-range missiles, which arrived yesterday at the U.S. naval base of Yokosuka south of Tokyo. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Deployment, Japan

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense

U.S. Traces North Korean Money to Russia

Kommersant reports that the U.S. may soon accuse Russia of benefiting financially from North Korea’s missile proliferation. Russian firms may be helping North Korea to develop missile technology, which Pyongyang then sells to nations such as Iran, Syria, and Pakistan. Once the sales are completed, the North Koreans deposit their proceeds in Russian banks. The article hints that Pyongyang may be running out of foreign accounts to store its proliferation proceeds due to U.S. pressure on Vietnam and China to freeze North Korean assets, and therefore has turned to the former Soviet Union. Peter Beck, head of the International Crisis Group, told Kommersant yesterday that Russia is “the last financial refuge for the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea.” Japanese media sources reported last week that North Korea had opened new bank accounts in ten different countries, including Russia, which lends credibility to Beck’s argument.
        Kommersant speculates that North Korea may be using the accounts of its embassy in Moscow to transfer funds. If this is true, it means that Pyongyang could be stashing its proliferation proceeds in Vneshtorgbank, which services the diplomatic missions in Moscow. Another possible recipient of North Korean assets is Vneshekonombank, which reached an interstate agreement with North Korea in the mid-1980s and opened “accounts on objects of technical cooperation and military-technical cooperation” with Pyongyang in 1992. Kommersant reports that Vneshekonombank still has several accounts with the Foreign Trade Bank of North Korea. Beck adds that U.S. officials see “a high degree of likelihood” in Russian financial dealing with North Korea, which could further sour relations between the two nations vis-à-vis Iran, a primary benefactor of North Korean missile proliferation. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia

Bay on Missile Defense

A more robust missile defense system will blunt the effects of North Korean and Iranian “fear us” campaigns, writes Austin Bay in The Washington Times. He explains how the rise of rogue states and terrorist organizations, combined with the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, has effectively nullified the Cold War-era doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), although MAD remains a driving force in Washington. Bay offers Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on northern Israel as a chilling example of how a non-state actor can willingly sacrifice its own people and neighborhoods in the pursuit of its goals. In the absence of a robust and credible missile defense, he writes, the U.S. will grow increasingly vulnerable to ballistic and cruise missile attack from these entities. The U.S. will likewise grow increasingly vulnerable to “fear us” campaigns and other forms of political manipulation by these rogue states and terrorist organizations, who are quickly learning that U.S. strategic culture remains tied to a defunct doctrine that assumes rationality on all sides. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis

First Aegis Cruiser Arrives in Japan

The U.S.S. Shiloh, the first missile defense-capable ship to be deployed in Japan, arrived in the port of Yokosuka today. The Shiloh is armed with the Aegis combat system, including Standard Missile-3 interceptors capable of shooting down medium-range ballistic missiles in mid-flight. Its deployment is a symbolic step in a joint U.S.-Japanese missile defense alliance to shield Japan and the region from missile attack. A second line of defense is to commence in September, when the U.S. military will begin installing Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors at its Kadena Air Base on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa. North Korea’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper immediately condemned the U.S.-Japanese deployment, stating that “the scheme of the U.S. war-thirsty quarters to deploy dense MD [missile defense] networks in the U.S. mainland, Japan, and the Pacific reveals their wild ambition to rule the world by strength.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Deployment, Japan

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD, Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense

Ivanov: U.S. Missile Defense Plans Should Be Transparent

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has announced that U.S. missile defense plans for Eastern Europe should be “transparent.” He was referring to U.S. plans to possibly deploy a network of anti-missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, two former communist-bloc countries. “As far as the global strategic missile defense system is concerned, we approach this issue quite cautiously and believe that such systems should be deployed with maximum transparency so as not to provoke other countries into developing weapons that could penetrate this defense,” Ivanov said at a news conference after talks with U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Ivanov and Rumsfeld met in Fairbanks on Sunday, August 27, to discuss bilateral defense cooperation and other international issues. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia

Iran Test Launches Sub-to-Surface Missile

Iran test launched a new submarine-to-surface missile today during war games in the Persian Gulf. The missile, called Thaqeb or Saturn, was shown in a video clip as exiting the water and hitting a target on the water’s surface within less than a mile. General Sajjad Kouchaki, the Iranian Navy Commander, said on Iranian state-run television that the Thaqeb could be fired from any vessel and could escape enemy radar. He added that the missile was based on domestic know-how, although outside experts say much of the country’s missile technology originated from other countries like Russia and China. Kouchaki did not give the weapon’s range, or its intended warhead. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

Rumsfeld Cautions on Missile Shield

U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld today sounded a note of caution about expectations that ground-based interceptors would work in the event of a missile attack by North Korea, reports the AP. Speaking at a news conference after his visit to the underground silos in Fort Greely, Alaska, Rumsfeld said he would not be fully persuaded until the system has undergone more complete and realistic testing. “I want to see it happen,” he said. “A full end-to-end” demonstration is needed “where we actually put all the pieces” of the highly complex and far-flung missile defense system together and see whether it would succeed in destroying a warhead in flight. “That just hasn’t happened,” he said, adding that some elements of the missile defense system are yet to come on line, including some of the radars and sensors used to track the target missile. Rumsfeld declined to say when he thought the missile defense system would reach the point of full reliability, but stressed that his advisers have told him they believe it will work as designed in the event of an actual missile attack. “I have a lot of confidence in these folks, and I have a lot of confidence in the work that’s been done,” he said. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile system details for: Fort Greely, Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

WSJ Interviews Obering, Discusses Space-Based Defenses

The Wall Street Journal today interviewed Lieutenant General Henry “Trey” Obering III, director of the Missile Defense Agency. Gen. Obering discussed the current and future capabilities of the U.S. missile defense system, in particular the role of space-based interceptors which he termed “very attractive.” When asked to respond to the “weaponization of space” argument, he noted that “we already do intercepts in space, because that’s where the missiles fly … What we’re talking about is having space-based interceptors that would engage from space.” Gen. Obering also said that he favors deploying more sophisticated sensors in space. “If someone had told me 15 or 20 years ago that we’d be fighting in Afghanistan, I wouldn’t have believed them. We don’t know where we’re going to be fighting in the next 20 years … and so instead of populating radars around the world to try to guess where those threats are going to be coming from, it makes a lot of sense to go to space … We have sensors in space but they are not sensors that you can accurately track from.” (More »»») 

» More stories on: Policy, Space-Based Systems

Committee to Report on Agni-3 Launch Failure

On July 9, India test-launched its longest-range nuclear-capable missile, the Agni-3 intermediate range ballistic. The missile was successfully launched from Wheeler Island, off the coast of Orissa State, but crashed into the Bay of Bengal after traveling 1,000 km, rather than reaching its 3,000 km target. According to India-Defence.com, a committee set up to investigate the July 9 failure will deliver its report to the Indian government in two weeks. The committee is headed by a former Chief Controller of the Missiles and Strategic Weapons group of the Defense Research and Development Organization. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: India, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: Agni-3

Forbes on Missile Defense and IWG Report

Steve Forbes argues that the U.S. must ramp up its missile defense efforts to defend against rogue nations and terrorist organizations. He writes in the September 4 issue of Forbes that North Korea’s July 4 missile tests and Hezbollah’s Iranian-supplied rocket attacks against Israel underscore the vulnerability of the U.S. to ballistic missile attack, even as the U.S. deploys ground-based interceptors in California and Alaska, and sea-based Aegis interceptors in the Pacific.
        Forbes praises the recent report by the Independent Working Group (IWG), Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century, which puts forth a variety of recommendations to defend the U.S. against missile attack, including reviving the space-based Brilliant Pebbles system. “The American people would overwhelmingly support such an accelerated effort,” Forbes writes. “The nightly news reminds us that the day of our vulnerability to terrorist missiles is nigh.”  (Article, Link) 

» Read the 2007 report: The Independent Working Group on Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century (8 MB)

» More stories on: Analysis

China and Russia Discuss Joint Mission to Mars

China and Russia are planning a joint mission to Mars. The Xinhua news agency quotes Ye Peijian, a scientist at the Chinese Research Institute of Space Technology, who announced yesterday that Russia plans to launch the spacecraft in 2009, which will carry Chinese-made equipment. The goal is to land on Mars and its nearest moon, and collect samples.
        In June, Sun Laiyan, administrator of the China National Space Administration, said that China would focus on the moon and Mars in its deep space exploration program over the next five years. China has previously said it hopes to launch a lunar exploration satellite in 2007 as part of a program that aims to place an unmanned vehicle on the moon by 2010. In 2003, it successfully launched astronaut Yang Liwei into orbit, becoming the third country after the Soviet Union and the U.S. to put a man in space. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Russia, Space-Based Systems

Israel Buys Upgraded Nuclear-Capable Submarines

Israel has signed a contract with Germany to buy two submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons, reports the AFP. The new Dolphin-class submarines, called U212s, will be assembled by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft AG in Germany, and will be bought by Israel for $1.27 billion, a third of which will be financed by the German government. The state-of-the-art submarines will be fitted with an advanced propulsion system allowing them to remain underwater far longer than submarines already in use by the Israeli navy. Each U212 carries a crew of 35, has a range of 4,500 kilometers (2,810 miles), and can launch cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads. The report of the purchase came one day after Rafi Eitan, an Israeli cabinet minister, warned that Israel should prepare for a ballistic missile attack by Iran. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Israel, Nuclear Weapons, Sea-Based Systems

U.S. Considers Second Mobile X-Band Radar for Japan

Kyodo reports that the U.S. is considering the deployment of a second mobile X-band radar in the Western Pacific in response to North Korea’s firing of ballistic missile last month. The article quotes an unnamed Pentagon official who said that four candidate sites for the second radar are Kyushu and Okinawa in southern Japan, as well as South Korea and Guam. The official added that the second radar would be located in the southern part of the region in an attempt to expand the scope of tracking North Korean missiles in combination with the first mobile X-band radar system already deployed in Aomori in northern Japan. The Aomori radar was deployed as part of a U.S.-Japan agreement in May on realigning U.S. forces in Japan. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Japan, Detection and Tracking

» Missile system details for: Forward-Based X-Band Radar-Transportable, Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense

China: Hezbollah Missile Link “Impossible”

Chinese regulations make it “impossible” for a missile China sold to Iran to be passed on to Lebanon’s Hezbollah forces, a senior Chinese diplomat claimed yesterday. Sun Bigan, China’s special envoy to the Middle East, told reporters that China has never exported arms to Hezbollah, including the radar guided C-802 (CSS-N-8) anti-ship cruise missile that Hezbollah fired at an Israeli warship on July 14. “I think the information or the news is not accurate about the use of Chinese weapons in the Lebanon-Israel battlefield,” Sun said. “I have taken note of these reports. The information itself is groundless.” Sun, however, did not rule out the possibility that these weapons may have been transferred to Hezbollah by a third party. “China does have some normal arms trade with some countries, however, the arms trade is with sovereign states. China does not provide weapons to any organizations, groups, or [political] parties.” He added that if Chinese weapons had in fact been transferred to another entity, China would be “very concerned,” but as far as he knew Beijing had not launched an investigation into the matter. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Iran, Proliferation, Terrorism

Czech Petition Supports U.S. Missile Defense

The Czech news agency CTK reports that an internet petition supporting a U.S. missile defense base in the Czech Republic has appeared on the prozakladnu.cz website. The petition warns of missile threats emanating from radical Islamic states and North Korea, and points out that the Czech Republic knows from its experience how difficult it is to stand up to the aggression of totalitarian states. “It is therefore important to join efforts aimed at the protection against them and allow our allies to station part of the joint defense missile system on our territory,” the petition says. “It is necessary to have a good defense system for the event of an attack.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

South Korea Launches First Military Communications Satellite

South Korea today launched its first military communications satellite, reports the AFP. The Mugunghwa-5 satellite, built by the French company Alcatel, was launched from a ship in the South Pacific off Hawaii. It will be placed in geosynchronous orbit, at 36,000 kilometers (22,000 miles), and will be able to collect surveillance information on North Korea. The Mugunghwa-5 is South Korea’s fourth communications satellite, but the first for military purposes. South Korea has previously had no surveillance system of its own and depended on U.S. airborne reconnaissance aircraft based at Okinawa in Japan. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: South Korea, Space-Based Systems

U.S. to Classify Strategic Weapons Data from Cold War

The U.S. has begun to classify data on strategic weapons during the Cold War, reports The Washington Post. According to a new report by the National Security Archive, a nonprofit research library at George Washington University, the Pentagon and the Department of Energy have designated the historical totals of Minuteman, Titan-2, and other missiles as national security secrets, and are blacking out the information on previously public documents. Other information that will be classified includes the number of missile launchers and the number of heavy bombers that existed during the Cold War. The Archive says that the Pentagon has been using guidelines developed by the Department of Energy in choosing which data to black out. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile details: Minuteman I, V-2

Iran Tests 10 Short Range Missiles

Iran today test launched 10 short-range Saegheh missiles in the Kashan desert, about 250 kilometers southeast of Tehran. According to Iranian state-run television, the Saegheh (“lightning” in Farsi) is domestically manufactured and has a range of between 80 and 250 kilometers. The report quoted Iranian Brigadier General Kiumars Heydari as saying, “Surface-to-surface as well as surface-to-sea missiles built by domestic defense industries with considerable range, high precision and large production numbers, will enable us to prevent any type of threat.” The test launches were part of a large Iranian war game that began Saturday, August 19. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign

Russia Tests S-300

The Russian military recently tested the S-300 air/missile defense system in a major exercise at the Ashuluk range in Astrakhan Region, reports Russian Channel One Europe TV. The broadcast stated that the S-300 crews “warded off air raids and missile attacks,” but did not specify the number of missiles fired, their targets, or their rate of success. The broadcast noted that Russia’s air defense shield currently “protects 140 strategic facilities and almost a third of Russia’s population,” adding that “the technical characteristics of the targets against which fire is directed are superior to the missiles actually possessed by the potential enemy.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

Katsumata: U.S. and Japan Need Plan to Defend Against North Korea

The U.S. and Japan have surprisingly little coordination in their current ballistic missile defense deployments, reports the UPI. The article quotes Hidemichi Katsumata, who discussed this lack of coordination in the Tokyo newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun on July 14, 10 days after North Korea test launched a salvo of long- and short-range ballistic missiles. “It may come as a surprise to many, but the [Japanese] government does not have plans in place to enable U.S. armed forces and the SDF [Japanese Self Defense Forces] to work jointly to protect the country from a ballistic missile attack,” Katsumata wrote. He recommended that “the [Japanese] government should therefore map out as soon as possible a joint Japan-U.S. strategy to prepare for a possible missile attack. Determining what roles U.S. forces and SDF troops can play, and what they are allowed to do, the government could help to deter North Korea.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Japan, North Korea

» Missile system details for: Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense

Russia Details Future Ballistic Missile Deployments

Russia has revealed more details of its State Armament Program outlining ballistic missile deployments through 2015, reports the October 1 issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets. Speaking at a meeting of defense enterprise heads in the Volgograd region, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov stated that by 2015 the Strategic Missile Forces will receive 69 Topol-M (SS-27) intercontinental ballistic missiles and the Russian Army will receive 60 Iskander-M (SS-X-26) short-range ballistic missiles. The number of Topol-M missiles to be produced under the plan differs from the 50 cited in previous press reports, although Jane’s notes that it is uncertain whether this refers to increased production or includes missiles produced before the 2007 start of the State Armament Program. (Link) 

» More stories on: Deployment, Russia

» Missile details: SS-N-6, Taep'o-dong 2

North Korea May Be Preparing for Nuclear Test

ABC News reports that North Korea may be preparing an underground nuclear test. According to a senior U.S. military official, “suspicious vehicle movement” has been observed at a suspected North Korean test site. The activity includes the unloading of large reels of cable outside an underground facility called Pungyee-yok in northeast North Korea. Such cables could be used to connect an underground test site to outside observation equipment. “It is the view of the intelligence community that a test is real possibility,” said a senior State Department official quoted by ABC News. North Korea is believed to have enough nuclear material to build as many as a dozen nuclear bombs, although it has never tested one. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons

Pentagon Finds Cruise Missile Defense “Gaps,” Warns of Ship-Launched Threat

A Pentagon assessment of the U.S. ability to defend the homeland against cruise missile attack has founds nine “credibility gaps” that may not be solved until 2015, reports Inside Defense. These “gaps” include an inability to get information on potential targets; insufficient surveillance coverage; an inability to detect small, low-altitude targets; an inability to create a common operating picture; an inability of sensor systems to provide adequate tracking information; an inability of sensors to determine or predict the intent of a cruise missile; an inability of sensors to provide senior military officials with enough information to make informed decisions; an inadequate supply of information from other government agencies; and a lack of defensive platforms able to cover the North American continent. The assessment adds that Pentagon officials are increasingly concerned with the threat of terrorists using a cargo ship stationed outside U.S. territorial waters as a platform from which to launch cruise missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Cruise Missile Defenses, Cruise Missiles, Ship-Launched Threat

U.S. to Accelerate Aegis Deployment in Pacific

The Pentagon plans to double its number of Aegis-equipped warships in the Pacific from three to six by the end of 2006, reports Reuters. The move was announced today by Rear Admiral Alan Hicks, program manager for the Aegis ballistic missile defense program. All three new warships will carry the specialized Aegis combat system, as well as Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptor missiles. The UPI notes that Raytheon on Wednesday received a $266 million contract to speed up deployment of the SM-3. The interceptors are capable of shooting down short- and medium-range North Korean missiles, although they are not capable of destroying longer-range threats such as the Taep’o-dong 2. The U.S. and Japan, however, are co-developing an advanced model interceptor, dubbed SM-3 Block 2 and scheduled for deployment by 2015, which will be able to defend against these longer-range missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Deployment, North Korea, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Northrop Grumman Awarded New Contracts for KEI

Reuters reports that the U.S. Missile Defense Agency plans to award Northrop Grumman two contracts totaling $2.5 billion for the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI). The first contract, to be awarded this fall, will total $1.5 billion and will covers the costs of restructuring and stretching out the project. The second contract, to be awarded by September 30, 2007, will total $1 billion and will “add a capability to shoot down targets in the middle of their flight paths,” according to the Pentagon’s Program Director Carlton Brewer as quoted by Reuters. MDA plans to test the KEI’s booster capabilities in the in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 in a test that may decide whether to continue or kill the project. (Article, Link) 

» Missile system details for: Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI)

Chinese Long-Range Missile Force Trains for Combat Survivability

China’s long-range missile force is training for survivability in the face of enemy attacks, writes David C. Isby in the September 1 issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets. He quotes a recent article in the Chinese press, which details how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) 2nd Artillery Corps is practicing the repair and self-reconstitution of its missile forces. In one recent training exercise, a missile brigade hastily constructed a temporary launch pad after its prepared launch pad was destroyed by enemy attack. According to the article, the new survivability tactics are tailored specifically to U.S. offensive capabilities. The tactics are also designed to eliminate predictable patterns and trends that may have emerged among the 2nd Artillery Corps. (Link) 

» More stories on: China

U.S. Air Force Completes Minuteman-3 Study

The U.S. Air Force has completed an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) study on maintaining and upgrading Minuteman-3 intercontinental ballistic missiles, reports the September 1 issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets. Although the two-year study has not been made public, it reportedly states that a force of 450 Minuteman-3 ICBMs would probably be sustainable beyond 2020 if the missiles were properly maintained and continuously upgraded. Such a system would reduce the necessity for the development of new ICBM systems in the near term. The AoA study is also believed to recommend retrofitting the Minuteman-3 missiles with the improved NS-50 inertial system to improve their accuracy. (Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile details: Minuteman I

Chilton Predicts Attacks on U.S. Satellites

General Kevin Chilton, who recently took charge the Air Force Space Command at Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado, today predicted future attacks on U.S. satellites and called for the expanded tracking of foreign launches, reports Reuters. Chilton noted that U.S. tracking efforts currently focus on determining if an overseas launch is a ballistic missile or designed to put an object in orbit, and then cataloging the launch over a period that often takes weeks. “I say those days are over,” he said. “If it’s a space launch, we can’t afford to relax.” He warned that U.S. satellites are increasingly vulnerable to attack, as foes naturally will want to deny the U.S. its current military and commercial advantages in space. “In the future, I’m convinced they’ll strike at these capabilities, if nothing else to attempt to level the playing field,” Chilton said, adding that the U.S. has a duty to secure “the entire space domain not just for our own military but for our allies and for the benefit of the free world.” To accomplish this, he said, the U.S. needs to increase its “situational awareness” and to gain the ability to take rapid defensive measures. “We need to know what the intent of that launch is,” he said. Chilton, in particular, recommended the development of new computer programs that would present easily digestible information on foreign launches to military commanders. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Space-Based Systems

Russia Develops New Support Vehicle for S-300, Plans to Export

Russia has developed a new reloading and missile-transportation vehicle for its S-300 air/missile defense systems, reports the September 1 issue of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets. The NPP Start scientific production enterprise released details of the new 22T6E2 vehicle at the recent Russian Expo Arms 2006 exhibition in Nizhniy Tagil. The 22T6E2 is based on Russian wheeled vehicles rather than the Ukrainian-manufactured KrAZ-260 wheeled chassis currently in use. The new vehicle, 10.8 m long, 3.2 m wide and 3.8 m high, can simultaneously load or unload two S-300 missiles and can relocate four missiles in approximately 30 minutes.
        Jane’s reports that Russia plans to export the new S-300 vehicles immediately. In 2005, the designers completed all testing of the 22T6E2 and received a certificate for mass production. According to Gennadiy Mikhaylovics Muratshin, the general director of NPP Start, the factory already has production orders from four unspecified countries. (Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

Israel Examines Skyguard to Counter Hezbollah Rockets

Israel’s defense ministry recently asked the Pentagon for information about Skyguard, a next-generation chemical laser system for intercepting short-range Katyusha and Kassam rockets, reports Reuters. Skyguard is being developed by Northrop Grumman, and is based on the Tactical High Energy Laser, a joint project between the U.S. and Israel in the 1990s that had subsequently been canceled. Israel is reportedly interested in obtaining an export license for Skyguard, which would allow it to deploy the high-energy system to defend strategic sites in northern Israel against Hezbollah’s continuous barrage of short-range rockets. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: High Energy Defenses, Israel, Terrorism

» Missile system details for: Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Obering to Recommend U.S. European Site Within “Months”

Lieutenant General Henry “Trey” Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, announced today that he expects to make his recommendation within months for the location of a U.S. missile defense site in Europe. Speaking in Huntsville, Alabama, Obering emphasized that the site would protect the U.S. and Europe against the threat of a long-range missile attack from Iran. He added that other factors would also be considered, such as soil conditions for missile silos, existing infrastructure to support the installations, and possible future sites for X-band radars. Obering did not specify exactly when he planned to make his recommendation, but noted that MDA planned to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Europe by 2011. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies, Policy

Pentagon Studies “Remediation” System to Defend Satellites

The Pentagon is researching a new system to defend U.S. satellites from high-altitude nuclear detonations and solar storms. The “radiation belt remediation” system, as it is known, would protect low-orbiting satellites from being damaged by charged particles in unusually intense radiation belts created by high-altitude nuclear explosions or solar storms. The “remediation” system would generate very low frequency radio waves to flush particles from the radiation belts and dump them into the upper atmosphere over one or several days. The project is being pursued by the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
        Some scientists, however, have noted that the “remediation” system could cause communication blackouts among high frequency radio transmissions and GPS navigation signals.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Weapons, Nuclear Weapons, Space-Based Systems

Czech Public Debates U.S. Missile Defense Site

A proposed U.S. missile defense base in the Czech Republic has fueled a nationwide debate in that country, reports the Czech news agency CTK. The Civic Democrats, who won the recent general elections, generally support the U.S. base; the Social Democrats and the Communists generally oppose it. In recent weeks, the opposition has become loud and vociferous, garnering leadership from the “No to Bases” group and organization from the ranks of the Young Communists. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Allies

Russian TV Profiles Sary-Shagan Test Range

Russian Ren TV today profiled the Sary-Shagan missile test range in Kazakhstan, as part of its “military secrets” program. Located near Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan, Sary-Shagan is the main proving ground for the Strategic Anti-Missile Troops that operate Russia’s missile defense systems. Sary-Shagan, which means “Golden Bay” in Kazakh, is located on a deserted steppe stretching for several thousand square kilometers. General Velor Maklashov, who heads the range, shared video footage of missile launches and successful intercepts, which the narrator described as “a duel, except instead of pistols or swords the opponents are armed with state-of-the-art weapons, a missile and an anti-missile.”
        The program also made a point of criticizing U.S. missile defense policy, noting the “increased importance” of Sary-Shagan “after the U.S. abrogated the ABM treaty.” It added that “the Americans, who are so proud of their anti-missile defense system, were able to achieve similar results only 23 years [after us].” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

GOP Criticizes Democrats on Missile Defense

As the midterm elections approach, Republicans are looking to ballistic missile defense as a major campaign issue. Polls have shown that the American public overwhelmingly supports missile defense, even more so given North Korea’s recent tests launches and Iran’s drive to acquire nuclear weapons. The Democrats, having attempted to block deployments under President Bush, are vulnerable on the issue. On Thursday, August 10, Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman circulated a paper attacking the Democratic voting record. “During the Bush administration, Democrats have voted against missile defense at least nine times,” the paper states. “When Democrats were in control of Congress they cut billions from missile defense.” The paper lists all the votes, by name and number, and adds that “Democrats would have [left] us helpless against North Korea’s missiles,” a reference to North Korea’s test launch of seven ballistic missiles on July 4, one of which was the long-range Taep’o-dong 2. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

Senators Press China on Iran and North Korea

U.S. senators visiting China have confronted Beijing about its ties with North Korea and Iran, reports Reuters. At a news briefing yesterday, Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) said that the senators raised claims that a missile China had sold to Iran was possibly passed onto Hezbollah forces in Lebanon which fired it at an Israeli ship. According to Specter, Chinese officials did not confirm that the missile was Chinese yet also did they deny the claim. “The reply came from one of the representatives that sales were made to a sovereign country and it was under an arrangement, as I said before, that there would not be a resale or a transfer,” he said. Specter added that the senators had also expressed Washington’s belief that China needed to do more to press North Korea to return to the negotiating table. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Iran, North Korea

New Control System for SM-3 Successfully Tested

Raytheon and ATK successfully tested a new steering control system for the ship-launched Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptor missile, reports the UPI. The SM-3 is deployed aboard Aegis-equipped cruisers and destroyers where it defends against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. The control system, known as the Solid Divert and Attitude Control System (SDACS), was tested in a vacuum chamber facility in Maryland and involved a full pulse burn that simulated the SM-3 closing on a target. The advanced version of the SDACS adds two more individual propellant burn periods, allowing for increased thrust and maneuvering capability. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Sea-Based Systems, Testing - American

» Missile system details for: Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Russia to Equip S-400 with New Missiles

The Russian Air Force plans to equip its S-400 (SA-20 Triumf) surface-to-air missile systems with new interceptor missiles by the end of 2006, reports RIA-Novosti. In his announcement, Vladimir Mikhaylov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force, did not offer any information other than that “the missile is at the moment undergoing tests.” The S-400 is believed to have a range of up to 400 kilometers, giving it approximately 2.5 times the range of the S-300P and twice the range of the U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) system. Once operational, the S-400 will be able to target and destroy aircraft, cruise missiles, and short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Russian Missile Defenses

» Missile system details for: S-400 (SA-20 Triumf)

Codevilla on THEL and Mideast Conflict

Angelo M. Codevilla, professor of international relations at Boston University and a senior fellow of the Claremont Institute, today discusses the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) and the role it might have played in defending Israel against Hezbollah’s Katyusha rockets, had it not been canceled. Codevilla notes that the technical problem in shooting down Katyushas has always been their short flight time, from their appearance over the horizon to their impact, which precludes the use of any normal Patriot-type surface-to-air interceptor missile. Katyushas are cheap and numerous (they are not ballistic missiles) and could easily overwhelm such defenses. The only way to effectively destroy Katyushas in flight, Codevilla notes, is through rapid fire, multi shot, directed energy weapons. During the 1990s, the U.S. and Israel developed such a system known as THEL, and by 1998 the system had been successfully tested against Katyusha rockets at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.
        Yet THEL was never deployed in Israel. Codevilla draws two conclusions, first that the decision not to deploy a workable defense is a result of “the flawed McNamara logic of almost a half century ago, that defense was not ‘cost effective.’…But consider the cost of not defending against them: the enemy was able to make a big chunk of the country uninhabitable..” Codevilla’s second point is that the ground-based laser technology is similar to the space based laser project which has also since been abandoned.
        Codevilla makes good points about the unique capabilities of the THEL program, which is uniquely suited to the short range artillery such as that facing Israel from Hezbollah terrorists. But much has happened with the THEL program since 2000, including successful testing, upgrades, and the transformation of THEL into “MTHEL,” with a mobile capability.
        Codevilla’s analysis omits reports that the U.S.-Israel cooperation on THEL was suspended in 2005 after Israel had transferred technologies to China, or of some other details in the THEL story.
        As recent events in Lebanon have again shown, the United States and Israel have many and profound common interests—indeed are somewhat natural allies. To benefit from that natural alliance, Israel should perhaps not be transferring systems to China, which of course sells weapons to Israel’s enemies, including Iran and Pakistan. Israel’s lack of THEL system today may be the result of not just bad strategic thinking about assured destruction from the McNamara era (thinking Israel arguably never adopted), but perhaps also from a lack of clarity in the past about allies. (Article, Link) 

» July 12, 2006: Northrop Grumman unveils Skyguard program, apparent reincarnation of THEL

» May 18, 2005: Glick: Cooperation on THEL suspended because of Israeli tech transfer to China

» More stories on: Analysis, Israel

» Missile system details for: Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL), Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL)

Belarusian Missile Crews Test S-300 in Southern Russia

This morning, Belarusian missile crews took part in a military exercise at the Ashuluk range in southern Russia that included tests of the S-300 air/missile defense system, reports the Belarusian news agency Belapan. During the operational and tactical exercise, crews from the 115th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade used S-300 systems to engage 15 target simulators imitating an attack by cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and supersonic aircraft. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Former Soviet Republics, Russia, Russian Missile Defenses, Testing - Foreign

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator, SA-12B Giant)

MDAA Calls for 10 More Interceptors for Vandeberg AFB

The Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA) has called for the deployment of 10 additional ground-based interceptors at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, to protect the West Coast from a possible North Korean ballistic missile attack. The U.S. already has two ground-based interceptors at Vandenberg AFB, as well as nine at Fort Greely in Alaska. MDAA also advocated for the deployment of an Aegis-equipped cruiser armed with Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) interceptors in the waters off Hawaii, and the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system at the Barking Sand Naval Base in Kauai, Hawaii. To defend against the missile threat from Iran, the alliance called for the development of a third interceptor site in Europe, and the deployment of Aegis-equipped cruisers in the Mediterranean Sea, North Sea, and Persian Gulf. The alliance added that the U.S. must continue to develop and invest in future missile defense assets, in particular systems capable of destroying missiles in their boost phase. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Policy

» Missile system details for: Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Vandenberg Air Force Base

Pakistan Establishes Three Strategic Commands

Kyodo reports that Pakistan has set up three strategic commands in its armed forces equipped with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and capable of retaliating against any first nuclear strike by India. According to Shaukat Sultan, a spokesman for the Indian Defense Ministry, the three commands are located within the army, air force, and navy. The army command, established in 2003 under Lieutenant General Ghulum Mustafa, forms the backbone of Pakistan’s combined strategic force. It includes up to 100 facilities, mostly underground, where Pakistan’s medium-range Shaheen and long-range Ghauri missiles are kept. Sultan refused to divulge the number of people involved in the storing, security, deployment, and operation of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, although Kyodo quotes independent sources as saying that the army’s strategic force alone includes nearly 6,000 people. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan

» Missile details: Ghauri-3, Hatf 6

Russian Arms Exporter Calls Sanctions for Proliferation “Unfriendly”

The Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport said on Monday, August 7, that U.S. sanctions against it were an “unfriendly act” aimed at undermining Russia’s defense industry, reports the AFP. On August 4, Washington announced that it had placed sanctions on Rosoboronexport and jetmaker Sukhoi for providing Iran with equipment that could be used to develop missile systems or weapons of mass destruction. Rosoboronexport replied in an official statement that “the introduction of sanctions should be seen as nothing other than an unfriendly act against the Russian state and an attempt at destabilizing its defense cooperation with foreign countries.” It continued: “Our cooperation with Iran … is carried out strictly in accordance with international agreements and is limited exclusively to supplies of defensive armament … Such deliveries of arms and military technology to Iran are made by many foreign companies, including by partner countries of the United States in NATO.” The sanctions could “have a negative effect on US-Russian partnership in countering illegal shipments of counterfeit Russian arms, particularly to Iraq and Afghanistan,” it added. In addition to the official statement, Rosoboronexport’s director Sergei Chemezov was quoted by Interfax as saying, “It’s a purely political move, an example of unfair competition.” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov also weighed in: “These sanctions don’t have the slightest relation to non-proliferation,” he said, according to Interfax. (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation, Russia

Jane’s on Russian Defense Industry Capabilities

Russia’s defense industry could have a hard time meeting its export commitments, reports the September 1 issue of Jane’s Defence Industry. Defense agreements with Venezuela alone could reach $3 billion, a sum equivalent to almost 50 percent of Moscow’s total military exports in 2005. Venezuela is also considering additional purchases, including Tor M-1 and Osa-10 air-defense missile systems. Yet Russia already has significant commitments to other key customers, including China and India, which accounted for 70 percent of its defense exports in 2005. In addition, Moscow recently reached a defense accord with Algeria valued at $7.5 billion, in which it agreed to supply Algeria with eight battalions of S-300 PMU2 surface-to-air missile systems among other things. Further agreements with Algeria worth between $2 billion and $3 billion are expected. Jane’s questions whether Moscow will be able to keep these ambitious commitments, as its defense industry remains tied to “old-fashioned management practices and organizational structures at odds with free-market principles,” and has thus fallen into “poor health.” (Link) 

» More stories on: Industry, Proliferation, Russia

» Missile system details for: S-300P (SA-10 Grumble)

South Korea to Develop “Black Bomb” Weapon to Target Electricity Sources

South Korea has announced plans to develop an air-launched weapon to disrupt electrical power lines, electricity substations, and power-generating plants, reports the August 16 issue of Jane’s Defence Weekly. The project, known as the “Black Bomb,” is aimed at producing a weapon similar to the U.S. BLU-114/B, a submunition payload for the CBU-94/B dispenser weapon that causes short-circuits in targeted power lines, rendering them ineffective. The article quotes an unnamed South Korean official, who said that the Black Bomb project should prove particularly effective in incapacitating North Korea’s underground military facilities, if the need for such a strike arose. The program is believed to be headed by the Ministry of National Defense’s main research and development arm, the Agency for Defense Development. In late July, South Korea’s leading producer of ammunition, Poongsan, was selected as the main contractor. (Link) 

» More stories on: South Korea

U.S. Sanctions Russian Companies for Selling Missile Technology to Iran

The U.S. State Department has imposed sanctions on two Russian companies for selling missile technology to Iran. The state-controlled weapons exporter Rosoboronexport and the aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi had been exporting material that could contribute to the development of weapons of mass destruction by Iran or a cruise or ballistic missile system, said the State Department.
        The two companies will be barred from engaging in business with the U.S. government and will be denied new export licenses for two years. Earlier this year, the Pentagon raised the problem of the Kremlin’s arms sales to countries that “compromise the political and economic independence and territorial integrity of other states.” Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had also said he was concerned that Russia was supplying arms to Iran and Syria.
        The sanctions angered the Russian government, which responded that the move was an “illegitimate attempt to make foreign companies work by internal American rules” and that the U.S. was punishing its own companies by making it impossible for them to co-operate with leading Russian corporations. “These sanctions, which the U.S. unilaterally imposes on other countries and their organizations, are an obvious political and legal anachronism,” the Russian Defense Ministry said. The Financial Times notes that the head of Rosoboronexport, Sergei Chemezov, served as a KGB officer with Russian president Vladimir Putin in East Germany in the 1980s and has boasted that their relationship helped his company “get a lot of issues resolved fast.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation, Russia

Iran to Supply Hezbollah with Russian-Made Surface-to-Air Missiles

Iran will supply Hezbollah with a number of Russian-made surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems over the coming months, reports the August 9 issue of Jane’s Defence Weekly. The article quotes Western diplomatic sources who claim that Hezbollah has pressured Iran for “an array of more advanced weaponry, including more advanced SAM systems” in preparation “for the next stage in the confrontation.” In late July, Hezbollah representatives allegedly met with senior representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), at which time Iran agreed “at later date, to supply advanced Russian-made SAM systems to Hezbollah” as part of its strategy to “transform Hezbollah, after the current conflict, into a coherent fighting force and a regional strategic arm.” According to Jane’s, Tehran will supply Hezbollah with Russian-produced SAMs, including the Strela-2/2M (SA-7 “Grail”), Strela-3 (SA-14 “Gremlin”) and Igla-1E (SA-16 “Gimlet”) man-portable systems. Iran will also deliver its Mithaq-1 and Mithaq-2 man-portable low-altitude SAM systems, both of which are Iranian copies of the Chinese QW-1 man-portable low-altitude SAM system. (Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Proliferation, Russia, Terrorism

Iran Builds Homegrown Missile Industry

Iran is building up its own missile industry using Chinese and Russian technology, reports Bloomberg. The Islamic Republic began developing its manufacturing capabilities in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War. With the threat from Saddam Hussein’s Iraq now gone, Tehran has “every intention of becoming a major regional power,” according to William Cohen, secretary of defense under President Bill Clinton, and intends to become self-sufficient in the production of weaponry, in particular ballistic missiles. Iran therefore no longer simply relies on imports from China, Russia, and North Korea, and has become adept at copying or even improving on those countries’ technologies. “The Iranians are at a stage now where they can build most of these weapons themselves locally,” said Guy Ben-Ari, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Among Iran’s homemade missiles that it has exported to Hezbollah and perhaps other Islamic terrorist organizations are the Zelzal-2 short-range ballistic missile, which carries a 600-kilogram warhead; the Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 short-range ballistic missiles, which carry 90- and 175-kilogram warheads respectively; and the Noor (Tondar) radar-guided anti-ship cruise missile, an Iranian copy of the Chinese C-802 (CSS-N-8). (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Industry, Iran, Proliferation

» Missile details: Zelzal-1/2/3

Iran Admits Supplying Zelzal-2 Missiles to Hezbollah

Iran has admitted supplying Zelzal-2 short-range ballistic missiles to the Hezbollah terrorist organization, reports The Jerusalem Post. Mohtashami Pur, Secretary-General of the Iranian “Intifada Conference” told an Iranian newspaper yesterday that Iran transferred the missiles so that they could be used to defend Lebanon.
        The Zelzal-2 (“earthquake” in Farsi) is believed to have a range of anywhere from 120 to 400 kilometers, and would be capable of striking Tel Aviv if launched successfully. The Israeli Defense Force estimates that it has destroyed almost two-thirds of Hezbollah’s Zelzal-2 arsenal, according to The Jerusalem Post.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Iran, Israel, Proliferation, Terrorism

» Missile details: Zelzal-1/2/3

Report: North Korea and Iran Collaborating on Missiles, Using Chinese Technology

North Korea has been working closely with Iran to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, using Chinese technology, according to a recent report by a state-run South Korean think tank. The report was produced by the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, and authored by Yun Deok-min. The collaboration is part of an international network, including Pakistan, that has made it possible for the impoverished North Korea to develop and deploy missiles despite scarce resources and limited testing. Pyongyang is believed to have built two underground missile bases in a mountainside in the central part of its land border with China. The bases “are located in positions that make them impossible to be attacked unless strikes come across the Chinese border, as they are positioned near the Sino-North Korea border and are in the mountainside,” the report said. The report also asserted that North Korea has been constructing new underground missile bases and silos along its east coast to deploy intermediate-range missiles aimed at Japan and U.S. military facilities.
        During a Senate hearing last week, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton noted that, “There is, no doubt, a very extensive Chinese cooperation with the Iranian ballistic missile program.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: China, Iran, North Korea, Proliferation

» Missile details: Tien Ma 1

Richardson on Cruise Missile Proliferation

“How did the [Chinese] C-802 [CSS-N-8] anti-ship cruise missile—rated by experts as among the most lethal in the world—get into Hezbollah’s hands?” asks Michael Richardson, a research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore in today’s edition of The Canberra Times. He goes on to discuss the “extensive but little-known trade in increasingly sophisticated missiles that have the capacity to upset stability and the balance of power in conflict-prone areas of the world.” The supply trail runs from China to Iran and then into Lebanon either by sea or over land via Syria. Iran and Syria are Hezbollah’s allies against Israel and the U.S. China has used Israel as a military supplier in the past, but has political and energy interests in Iran and Syria that are now in conflict with those of Israel. The tale of the C-802, Richardson writes, “is a classic story about the dog-eat-dog nature of the global arms trade and the destabilising impact of weapons that are not effectively controlled by national regulation or international treaties and agreements.” At present, there is no ban on the proliferation of anti-ship cruise missiles such as the C-802. Richardson lays out a plausible and frightening scenario based on the disclosure early last year by officials of Ukraine’s recently installed democratic government of the illegal export of 20 Russian-made Kh-55SM cruise missiles, each with a range of 3,000 km:

The Kh-55 family of missiles is Russia’s main nuclear-armed cruise missile launched from the air by strategic bombers. The missiles, exported in 2000 and 2001, were diverted from Soviet stocks left behind after Ukraine declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The illicit sale took place despite the fact that Ukraine was an regime member. Twelve of the Kh-55SMs reportedly went to Iran, six to China and two to Pakistan. Iran is alleged to have paid nearly $US50million ($A65.5million) for its missiles.

None of the Kh-55SMs from Ukraine had their 200 kiloton nuclear warheads. But the deal included the system for testing, programming and launching the missiles which had been in service for a number of years. China and Pakistan, both declared nuclear powers, evidently wanted to strip the missiles to copy and incorporate its design, propulsion and guidance components into their own efforts to develop long-range cruise missiles—a process known as reverse engineering.

Iran, too, may have similar interests in using some of the Kh-55SMs as a shortcut for developing a derivative long-range cruise missile—one capable of striking Israel from some 1500 km away. But having a dozen of the missiles could also enable Iran to fit the weapon to its Soviet built Su-24 strike aircraft or fire it from ships or land-based truck launchers.

        Robertson concludes: “The ultimate nightmare for Israel and the U.S. would be a Kh-55SM-type missile, armed with an Iranian nuclear warhead.”  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, China, Cruise Missiles, Iran, Proliferation

Russia Test Launches SS-25 Topol ICBM

Russia today test launched a road-mobile SS-25 Topol (RS-12M) intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwestern Russia, according to Russian media sources. Major General Vitaly Seliverstov, deputy head of the Strategic Rocket Forces’ armament department, told Interfax that “the missile was test-fired to confirm the stability of its flight and technical characteristics during the extended period of operation.” Itar-Tass reports that the missile was fired from a mobile launcher. It is believed that the launch and flight of the Topol met all necessary standards, and that the missile hit its designated target on the Kamchtaka Peninsula at the scheduled time.
        The SS-25 Topol was the first fully road mobile intercontinental ballistic missile commissioned by the Soviet Union. The Topol has a high rate of survivability, as it is difficult to locate and destroy a properly hidden road mobile system. MosNews reports that 300 missiles remained on duty as of 2005.  (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign

» Missile details: SS-N-5

» Missile system details for: Plesetsk Cosmodrome

Fisher: China May Have Second-Strike Capability

China may have a “second-strike” nuclear capability, says Richard Fisher, a researcher at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Alexandria, Virginia. Fisher recently spoke at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., where he stated his belief that Beijing has equipped and launched the first JIN-class (Type 094) ballistic missile submarine. The Pentagon had previously asserted that the new Chinese submarine would not be operational until around 2010. Fisher also speculated that China might have already armed the Type 094 submarine with JL-2 (CSS-NX-5) submarine launched ballistic missiles, which would give China a second-strike nuclear capability in any confrontation with the U.S. “The JL-2 SLBM has undergone a series of tests,” he said. “The potential for [the Type 094 submarine] to be armed with multiple warheads is there.” (Article, Link) 

» More stories on: Analysis, China, Sea-Based Systems

» Missile details: CSS-NX-5 (JL-2)

Chinese Military Looks to Outer Space

China’s space program has to a large extent been a military undertaking from the very beginning, reports the AFP. The article quotes a group of unidentified researchers at the Chinese National Defense University, who yesterday published an article in the mass-circulation People’s Daily that listed space as an area where the People’s Liberation Army must be equipped and prepared to defend Chinese national interests. “Our military should not only protect China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, but should also prote