| Country: |
Iran |
| Associated Country: |
North Korea, Russia |
| Class: |
MRBM |
| Basing: |
Road mobile |
| Length: |
12.0 m |
| Diameter: |
1.5 m |
| Launch Weight: |
19000 kg |
| Payload: |
Single warhead 1400 kg |
| Warhead: |
HE, chemical |
| Propulsion: |
Three-stage liquid/solid |
| Range: |
2000-3000 km |
| Status: |
Development |
Details
The Shabab-4 is an intermediate-range, road-mobile, liquid-propellant ballistic missile. It uses the fundamental technologies of the older Shahab-3 and Shahab-3A, but has an increased range of 2000 km (1,243 miles) and probably has an improved accuracy based on more modern digital guidance systems. Although the project is shrouded in secrecy, it is most likely an attempt to make Iran's missile program less dependent upon foreign materials.
The Shahab-4 is believed to be based on technology from the now obsolete Russian SS-4, although both Russia and Iran have denied such a collaboration.1 The SS-4 was 22.8 m long with a diameter of 1.65 m and a launch weight of 42000 kg. Its 1600 kg payload contained a single separating warhead. It used a single-stage liquid propellant engine and an inertial guidance system. The SS-4 had a range of 2000 km (1,243 miles) and an abysmal accuracy of 2400 m CEP. Depending on similarity between the Shahab-4 and the SS-4, these figures may not be relevant. It is believed that the Shahab-4 will have an accuracy of between 2500 and 3500 m CEP and a range of between 2000 and 3000 km (1,243 to 1,864 miles).2
An alternative explanation for the Shahab-4's development is that the missile is simply a longer version of the Shahab-3, using SS-4 technology to improve its performance. This explanation is supported by the manner in which Pakistan developed its Hatf-5A missile. Pakistani engineers lengthened an already existing Haft-5 and added an improved propellant. The Hatf-5A appears similar to the Shahab-3 and, also similarly, has an extended range between 1800 and 2300 km (1,118 and 1,429 miles). If it is the case that the Shahab-4 is a longer version of the Shahab-3, then the modified size is probably be 18.0 m long, and has a launch weight of 16800 kg. A third possibility is that the Shahab-4 varies from its predecessors by the use of motors from the Russian SS-5 ballistic missile.3 Currently it is believed that the Shahab 4 has a length of 12 m, a diameter of 1.5 m, a launch weight of 19000 kg and a payload around 1200 kg. It may have an accuracy of 1000 to 1500 CEP.
Iran released information in 2003 regarding the close of the Shahab-4 program in favor of a space launching vehicle program. Reports also indicate the possibility that Iran obtained SS-N-6 "Serb" missile technology. This weapon bears similar specifications to the SS-4 and the projected specifications for Shahab-4, but with increased accuracy, 1000m CEP, greater range, 2500-4000 km, and a lighter payload, 1200kg. Reports indicate the SS-N-6 has been redesignated the Shahab-4. Originally submarine launched, the SS-N-6 is believed to be modified by the North Koreans, and finally adjusted and assembled by the Iranians, to be land based. At the fall of the Soviet Union, 419 of these SLBMs remained in operational condition. Reports indicate that these weapons made their way to North Korea. Reports point to the delivery of 18 of these weapons to Iran.4
Limited testing reports have been released regarding Shahab-4. Reports indicate a program that began in 1996 with engine testing of limited
Regardless, if the Shahab-4's reported range of 2000 km range is correct, the missile will have the capability to target all of Israel, as well as Turkey, much of India, parts of Germany and China, and US forces stationed in Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Persian Gulf. To make matters worse, a Shahab-4 launched against the closest targets in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Israel will be able to impact with greater accuracy and at a higher speed, thus increasing the missile's effectiveness and ability to penetrate missile defenses. It also will increase the political and military leverage held by the Iranian government, especially once Iran develops a nuclear warhead.
An additional threat is the possibility that Iran will give or sell its missile technology to rogue nations or terrorist organizations antagonistic toward the U.S. At present, Iran's missiles are stored and operated in underground sites under the complete control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which enjoys little outside supervision within Iran. General Mahmud Chahar Baghi of the IRGC stated in 2008 that any act of Israeli aggression would be retorted by the llaunching of 11,000 missiles within the first minute.5 In 1998, for instance, Pakistan demonstrated a flight test of a missile remarkably similar to the Shahab-3 and the North Korean No-dong 1. In the final analysis, little can be done to limit Iranian missile proliferation. Sanctions have been proved to lead to more underhanded dealings with nations such as North Korea, Russia, and China. The Iranians have also increased domestic production of weapons.
The first missile may have been tested in January 2006 although another source states that it was assembled in April 2006. It is possible that the Shahab 3 and Shahab 4 programs will contribute to a Shahab 5 program and an additional program designated Ashoura. Although sources indicate that the Shahab 4 program may have been halted in 2003.6 Reports indicate that this weapons test was indeed the Shahab-4 and that it is a derivative of the SS-N-6. Additionally, reports indicate that the test was terminated fter the separation of the nose reentry vehicle (RV).7 Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar indicated in a public press conference in 2006 that the nation was in the process of "researching and building" the Shahab-4. It is likely that this reference is to the SS-N-6.8 In the first week of February, 2008, reports indicate that Iran tested a missile. Russian reports claim that it was possibly a more advanced Shahab-3, indicating either the 4 series or 5 series. Russian officials expressed concern over the test citing a missile test is an integral part of nuclear weapons programs.9
The Iranian missile program has been shrouded in secrecy, deception, and the unknown. Iran obtains weapons of various design and origin, and frequently retains a single name and reclassifies its physical missile assets, which adds to the confusion. According to Defense Minister Najjar, when asked about the testing of the Shahab-4, "Names and titles are not important in this regard. The important point, though, is that we are proceeding according to our defense doctrine..."
10 At present the future of the Iranian missile program is uncertain, but the existence of these missiles proves that ballistic missiles are no longer the purview of first world nations. If the US and its allies are to remain safe they must deploy missile defense systems capable of undermining the effectiveness of these now ubiquitous offensive systems.
Footnotes
- Robin Hughes, "Iran Denies Shahab 4 Development," Jane's Defence Weekly, 12 November 2003.
- Doug Richardson, "Iran Is Developing an IRBM, Claims Resistance Group," Jane's Missiles and Rockets, 1 January 2005.
- Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems 42 (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2005), 102-103; Andrew Koch, Robin Hughes, and Alon-Ben David, "Tehran Altering Ballistic Missile," Jane's Defence Weekly, 8 December 2004.
- Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems 46 (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2007), 71-73.
- "Lebanese Al-Manar TV aire two part documentary on Iran's military capabilities," BBC Monitoring Middle East - Political,19 May 2008, www.bbc.co.uk/ , Accessed 6 June 2008
- "Iran considers purchase of Tor-m1 missiles from Russia - minister," BBC Monitoring Middle East - Political, 16 June 2006 www.bbc.co.uk, Accessed on 9 June 2008. .
- Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems 46 (Surrey: Jane's Information Group, January 2007), 71-73.
- Associated Press, "Iran: Russia Says New Rocket Raises Nuclear ‘Suspicions,'" The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/world/worldspecial/07briefs-ROCKET.html?ref=world, 7 February 2008, Accessed on 10 June 2008.
- GlobalSecurity.org, "Shahab-4," available at http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/shahab-4.htm, accessed on 9 June 2008
- Yonah Alexander, "The New Iranian Leadership: Ahmadinejad, Terrorism, Nuclear Ambition, and the Middle East," Praeger Publishers ,2008, http://0-psi.praeger.com, Accessed on 9 June 2008.
Iran Developing Longer Range Missiles
December 2, 2004 :: New York Times :: News
Citing an Iranian opposition group, the New York Times today reports that Iran is secretly developing a ballistic missile of considerably longer-range than that which it currently admits to having, in part with the aid of North Korean scientists. The dissident group, also said to be a terrorist group, says the new missile would have a range of more than 1,500 miles (2,400km). Iran has already tested versions of its Shahab-3/4 with a range of 2,000km. Such a range would give the terrorist sponsoring nation the capability to target much of Europe.
Today the U.S. State Department also slapped sanctions on four Chinese entities (including one state-run firm) and one North Korean company, for their aiding Iran with its missile and weapons programs. Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs are not taking place in a vacuum, and their progress should come as no surprise. The proliferation of ballistic missile and weapons programs to Iran would seem to be a matter of high state policy for China and North Korea, as well as Russia, whose entities regularly receive similar sanctions and which is a primary contributor to Iran’s nuclear reactor programs.
Update: Dec. 3: Other reports include a more detailed description of the report by the National Council of Resistance of Iran. The council is said to have identified not one, but two longer-range missiles under development, calling them Ghadr 101 and Ghadr 110. Their ranges are said to be 2,500 and 3,000km, respectively. Reuters compares these missiles, being developed at the Hemmat Missile Industries complex, to the more advanced Scud E. Also of note is that the council described Iran’s August test of a Shahab missile as being of the Shahab-4, rather than the Shahab-3. Some have speculated that Iran’s retaining the same nomenclature for a more advanced missile may be part of a design to understate its capabilities. Iran has only admitted to having or pursuing missiles with a range of no more than 2,000km.
The council quoted by Middle East Newsline on December 2 describes the range of the Shahab-4 as between 2,000 to 3,000 kilometers—which may well be possible, but a 3,000km range for the Shahab-4 would seem to undercut the claim that a 3,000km range Ghadr missile would constitute a real improvement. (Article, Link)
» Dec. 2: State Dept. imposes sanctions on Chinese and North Korean entities
» Dec. 3: Reuters: two “Ghadr” missiles under development
» Dec. 3: Middle East Newsline: Iran-China satellite accord will aid Iranian missile accuracy
» More stories on: China, Iran, Proliferation
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
Powell: Iran Adapting Missiles to Carry Nuclear Warheads
November 18, 2004 :: Washington Post :: News
Departing Secretary of State Colin Powell recently remarked that Iran is preparing its missile systems to carry nuclear weapons. Despite the attention to the story, however, Powell’s comments do not constitute any new revelation. Nor should they come as any surprise, especially given the aid Iran has been receiving from abroad, and in particular from China and Russia. Unless and until one puts together the pieces to see the larger geopolitical alliances responsible for proliferation, one will continue to be surprised by these numerous and apparently unrelated stories. (More »»»)
» Nov. 18: Interfax: Russia will continue to aid Iran’s nuclear program
» Apr. 27: John Bolton: Russia China proliferating; Iran lying about peaceful character of nuclear program
» Nov. 18: Powell remarks on Iranian nuclear modifications to missiles
» More stories on: China, Iran, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
Iran Can Mass Produce Shahab
November 9, 2004 :: BBC :: News
Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani today announced that Iran is now capable of mass producing its Shahab-3 ballistic missile. “We are presently able to mass-produce the Shahab-3, just like we do with the Paykan,” the minister said, referring to Iran’s ubiquitous national automobile.
Shamkhani said that Iran had mastered the necessary technology, and that there were no limits on production. Shamkhani denied that Iran would be developing a longer range missile, and that current increases in range (to 2,000km) were for the purpose of being able to fire it from anywhere in Iran. “These are Zionist words and their intention is to suggest Iran is seeking to threaten Europe…We don’t feel any threat from Europe and we don’t see the need to invest in this field.” (More »»»)
» More stories on: Iran
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
Iran Again Tests Shahab-3
October 20, 2004 :: AFP :: News
Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani announced that Iran had today again tested an upgraded version of its Shahab-3 ballistic missile, in the presence of observers. Shamkhani would not comment on the specific range or the location of the test, but Iran has previously claimed that the “strategic” missile has a range of 2,000km; Iran’s IRNA news agency last month quoted former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani that Iran possessed that capability. Such a range not only threatens Israel, but also U.S. bases in the region and parts of Europe. Rafsanjani also commented at the time, “Experts know that a country that possesses this [range] can obtain all subsequent stages in missile production.”
On October 7, Nasser Maleki, the deputy director of Iran’s aerospace industry organization, commented that “Very certainly we are going to improve our Shahab-3 and all of our other missiles.”
Iran’s ballistic missile development has been steady, and not without foreign help. The recent upgrades to the Shahab-3 are believed to be due in part to Chinese assistance, including a more accurate guidance system and an improved warhead more suited to carryign chemical weapons. Hours after today’s test, the Moscow News carried a piece boasting that the Iranian Shahab-3, and the North Korean No-Dong from which it was partly derived, both employ Russian missile technology. (Article, Link)
» Iran’s Revolutionary Guard acquiring greater control
» Oct. 20: Moscow News: Russian missile tech used for Iranian, North Korean advances
» More stories on: Iran, North Korea, Proliferation, Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
Iran: Missiles Can Now Hit Europe
October 6, 2004 :: News
Iran is increasing its already much-publicized claims for its Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 missiles, which it continues to test and upgrade. This past week, Iran reported again that the Shahab-4 missile has a range of some 2,000 km, and that parts of Europe are now within range. (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Iran
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
Iran Tests Upgraded Shahab-3
August 11, 2004 :: News
Iran today tested what it describes as the most recent version of the already deployed Shahab-3 missile. With a range of 1,300km, the missile threatens all of Israel and some U.S. military bases in the Mideast region. The test closely follows upon Israel’s July 29 test of its Arrow II missile interceptor, which it hopes will protect it against especially the Iranian Shahab-3.
Iran has recently renewed its pledge to wipe Israel “off the map.” The ISNA students news agency quoted Revolutionary Guard Commander Yahya Rahim Safavi as commenting today that the “If Israel behaves like a lunatic and attacks the Iranian nation’s interests, we will come down on their heads like a mallet and break their bones.” The Revolutionary Guard has direct control of the Shahab missile systems.
Israel defense sources report that Tehran is also developing a “Shahab-4” missile with a range of 1,700 km, but Iran may be adding the additional range to the so-called improved Shahab-3, while understating its potential, and, by keeping the same name, not attract further international scrutiny. (Article, Link)
» Debka on Shahab-3 program
» More stories on: Iran, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: Shahab-3, Shahab-4
