| Country: |
Russian Federation |
| Class: |
ICBM |
| Status: |
Unknown |
Details
Little is known about this missile. The first test of this missile were conducted on May 29 2007. It is said to be a replacement for the RS-18 and RS-20 with a capacity for 10 rather than 6 warheads (the SS-19 and SS-18 can only carry 6 warheads). It may be capable of penetrating many existing missile defense systems.
Confusing information has, however been presented. It is said that the RS-24 is based on the Topol-M; If this is true it should only be capable of carrying 3 warheads. This disconnect has led to speculation. Some have said that it may have been based on the SS-26; but many sources dismiss this possibility. Other sources present the RS-24 is a modified RS-22, SS-24 ICBM. If this is the case it may be difficult to make the missile mobile because of its suggested size. If nothing else, the missile has to be sufficiently mobile to transport the existing SS-24, SS-19, and SS-18 silos. This leads to talk about a reintroduction of the railroad mobilization system.
There is a possibility that existing technology could be adjusted so as to allow the Topol-M model to accommodate the larger payload associated with the RS-24. Unconfirmed reports have speculated that the RS-24 will use the Bulava, SS-NX-30 guidance system and warheads.(1) There may be a connection between the revised RS-24 and the US withdrawal from the ABM treaty.
If these modifications have been carried out Russia may be in violation of the START treaty. The START treaty prohibits increasing the warhead capacity of existing and new missiles. Russia has attempted to present the RS-24 as a new missile because it is based on the Topol-M: a variant of the Topol. There are very insignificant differences between the Topol and the Topol-M, however, making Russia's claim questionable.
It is possible that the RS-24 will have a significantly increased throw-weight. If this is the case it can be considered a new missile. This provides Russia with some room to maneuver. Russia can declare the RS-24 as a prototype, which allows them to leave the throw-weight and number of warheads undeclared until the missile has been tested 20 times.(2)
Russia needs to repair the SS-24, SS-18, and SS-19s in their arsenal because they are currently degrading and will be obsolete by 2010. There is currently no open attempt to fix the SS-24s nor is there any open attempt to modify the missile.(3)
Footnote
Russianforces.org, "Is RS-24 a new missile?" by Pavel Podvig, available at http://russianforces.org/blog/2007/07/is_rs24_a_new_missile.shtml, accessed on July 23, 2007.
Russianforces.org, "Is RS-24 a new missile?" available at http://russianforces.org/blog/2007/07/is_rs24_a_new_missile.shtml, by Pavel Podvig, accessed on July 23, 2007.
Globalsecurity.org, "RS-24/SS-X-29?," available at http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/rs-24.htm, accessed on July 3, 2007.
Russia Successfully Tests New RS-24 ICBM
December 25, 2007 :: AP :: News
Russia's Strategic Missile Forces announced the successful test of the new RS-24 ballistic missile on December 25. The missile was launched from the Plestsk facility in northern Russia and destroyed targets on the Kura testing range located on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Said to be based on the Topol-M, the RS-24 is designed to replace aging Soviet-era missiles such as the RS-18 and the RS-20 (known as the SS-19 and SS-18 in the West). Interfax reports that the RS-24 missile can carry up to three warheads. The Strategic Missile Forces's statement declared, "The RS-24's deployment will strengthen the Strategic Missile Forces' capability to penetrate missile defense systems and strengthen the nuclear deterrent potential of Russia's strategic nuclear forces...The RS-24 will form the backbone of the Strategic Missile Forces and safely ensure the security of Russia and its allies through the mid-century." (Article, Link)
» More stories on: Russia, Testing - Foreign
» Missile details: RS-24, SS-27
Podvig on the Russian RS-24 as Modified Topol-M
July 6, 2007 :: Analysis
The RS-24 missile that Russia tested on May 29, 2007 is a multiple-warhead version of the Topol-M and not a new missile, concludes Russian analyst Pavel Podvig writing for the Russian Forces blog. Russia has long wanted to have a MIRV version of the Topol-M, assuming it could compensate the slow pace of missile deployment by making the forces look bigger. However, under the guidelines of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), Russia and the U.S. are forbidden from "increasing the number of warheads attributed to an ICBM or SLBM of an existing or new type [of missile] (Article V.12d)". Since under the guidelines of the treaty, the Topol-M would be considered a variant of the Topol missile, Russia cannot declare that it will be equipped with multiple warheads. Therefore, Russia declared the Topol-M a "new" missile.
It is (almost) official now - the RS-24 missile that Russia tested on May 29, 2007 is a multiple-warhead version of Topol-M. That was my guess at the time of the test, but now I have had it confirmed. The missile, of course, have a new warhead section, but it is a Topol-M. It was said to use a guidance system that shares technology with that of the Bulava SLBM and, just as I suspected, it will be using the same warheads. It appears, though, that MIRVed Topol-M will carry no more than six warheads (the range was reported to be from three to six, but no final number yet).
MIRVing of Topol-M has long been somewhat of an obsession in Russia - there is a broad consensus among experts across the spectrum that this could compensate for the slow pace of the missile deployment, if only by artificially making the Russian forces look bigger. I think this belief is deeply misguided, but this is where the Russian debate stands. ...
At the moment, Russia can declare it as a prototype, which means it does not have to attribute a number of warheads or throw-weight to the missile until it is flight-tested at least 20 times or deployed. Since START is set to expire in December 2009, this means that Russia may avoid a conflict with the treaty by simply withholding the final throw-weight declaration until then.
(Article, Link)
» More stories on: Analysis, Russia
» Missile details: RS-24
