For the past half century, Syria's overriding military objective has been the destruction of Israel. Yet on the battlefield, Syria has been defeated by the Israeli Defense Force in every conventional military engagement, most spectacularly in 1967, 1973, and 1982.[1] A realistic assessment of its conventional military performance has led Syria to adopt a new four-track strategy in hopes of thwarting Israel by other means: (a) state sponsorship of terrorism, (b) a quest for weapons of mass destruction, (3) a steady build-up of offensive and defense missile systems, and (d) active weapons proliferation. For these reasons, although Syria's conventional forces remain inadequate, the unconventional threat from Syria has become considerable.
Since the early 1980s, Damascus has openly provided material and political backing to the militant Islamic terrorist group Hezbollah, gaining Syria a prominent place on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. In its ceaseless struggle against Israel, Hezbollah has committed terrorist acts against Israelis and Americans, including the suicide bombings of the U.S. embassy and the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, as well as the firing of low-flying Katyusha rockets at Israeli civilian populations.[2] In addition to its support for Hezbollah, Syria aids and abets radical Palestinian terrorist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which have been largely responsible for the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in recent years.[3]
In addition, Syria has actively sought to acquire weapons of mass destruction. According to a 2003 CIA report, Damascus already has a stockpile of the nerve agent Sarin, but apparently is trying to develop more toxic and persistent nerve agents as well as biological weapons with the aid of foreign sources.[4] John Bolton, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control, recently testified before the House International Relations Committee and reiterated that Syria has acquired "what is now one of the most advanced Arab chemical weapons capabilities" and is "continuing to develop an offensive biological weapons capability."[5] In addition to this chemical and biological weaponry, the CIA notes that Syria has a nuclear research center at Dayr al-Hajar and has access to considerable Russian expertise, should it consider pursuing nuclear weapons.[6]
Syria's sponsorship of terrorism and quest for weapons of mass destruction is especially troubling due to its steady build-up of offensive ballistic missile systems. Syria's missile program, which dates back to the 1970s, includes Scud B, C, and D variants, SS-21s, M-9 and M-11 variants, and Frog-7s. It is currently one of the largest arsenals of offensive weapons in the Middle East, thanks largely to Russia, China, and North Korea. Assistance from the former Soviet Union has included sales of Scuds, SS-21s, and Frog-7s. In recent years, China has sent diplomatic and technological delegations to Syria to discuss strategies for boosting Syria's missile capabilities, the focus of which has been to extend the range of Syria's Scuds from short to medium and even intermediate.[7] North Korea has concentrated on helping Syria to establish a solid-propellant rocket motor development and production capability.[8]
In recent months, reports have indicated that Russia plans to sell of number of new missile systems to Syria, including the made-for-export SS-26 Iskander missile, the S-300PMU-2 air and missile defense system, and the shoulder-fired SS-18 Igla anti-aircraft missile. Most worrisome is the SS-26 Iskander's reported range of 280 kilometers, which would allow Syria to attack nearly all of Israel.[9] Syria is also negotiating the purchase of the Russian S-400 air and missile defense system, said to be comparable or superior to the U.S. Patriot PAC-3 interceptor.[10] Including these recent developments, it is apparent that Syria's offensive arsenal, if armed with chemical or biological weapons and protected by a sizeable air and missile defense shield, poses a serious threat to Israel, as well as U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East, and even a democratic Iraq.
In addition to its own missile capabilities, Syria engages in dangerous proliferation behavior. In January 2004 and afterward, Syria sent Scud C and D missiles as well as chemical weapons to the Sudan. The arms shipments were recently revealed when Sudanese President Omar Bashir, fearing U.S. sanctions, ordered the missiles and chemical weapons removed from his country.[11] In addition, it has been revealed by Major General Ze'evi Farkash, head of the Israeli Defense Force intelligence branch, that Hezbollah recently sought to acquire short-range ballistic missiles armed with chemical weapons from Syria. Farkash noted that Hezbollah might already have as many as 30 missiles that are capable of traveling 215 kilometers.[12]
Taken together, the threat from Syria looms large. Until Damascus abandons its state sponsorship of terrorism, WMD programs, steady build-up of offensive and defensive missile systems, and active weapons proliferation, it will remain a significant cause for concern.
[1] Kenneth M. Pollack, Arabs at War: Military Effectiveness, 1948-1991 (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 2002) 447-551.
[2] Al-Hayat, 15 October 2003; International Crisis Group, Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border, 2002.
[3] Congressional Research Service, "Syria: US Relations and Bilateral Issues," 13 May 2003; U.S. Department of State, "Patterns of Global Terrorism," 30 April 2003; U.S. Department of State, Press Releases, 29 January 2004.
[4] CIA, "Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January Through 30 June 2002," released April 2003.
[5] Testimony of John R. Bolton, before the House International Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, 16 September 2003.
[6] CIA, Report, April 2003.
[7] Middle East Newsline, 13 May 2004.
[8] CIA, Report, April 2003.
[9] Kommersant, 12 January 2005.
[10] "Syria Seeks S-400 Anti-Missile System from Russia," Middle East Newline, 9 February 2005.
[11] Geostrategy-Direct, 3 May 2004.
[12] Voice of Israel/BBC Monitoring, 25 July 2004.
